- Jimmy’s Punt 26/27: Staked 16pts | Returned 11.8pts | P/L -4.2pts | ROI -27%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30
1pt MK Dons -1.0 Asian handicap vs Leicester at 17/4 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Millwall to win 'draw no bet' at Southampton at 7/4 (General)
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie (Saturday 15:00)
1pt (Total stake) Josh Coburn, Reyes Cleary and Jayden Wareham anytime goalscorer Trixie at 55/1 (Sky Bet)
May I interest you in a moan? Last weekend was annoying, aside from the -5.3pts return.
Reyes Cleary was inexplicably dropped to the bench at Doncaster scuppering goalscorer punts up to 40/1 before they even got a chance. Oh, then he started in midweek and scored.
Rotherham and York looked to be obliging on the goals front, 1-1 at half time and despite creating 3.4 worth of expected-goals (xG) between them, that’s how it ended.
And to add insult to injury, a couple of punts from the opening weekend of EFL fixtures cashed in the second round. I hadn’t tipped them on this occasion though, obviously. Right bets, wrong time, same ol’ frustrating feeling. That’s more like it.
The other angles from last weekend not mentioned either won, lost or were void. Who cares right?
Anyway, on the docket this weekend, the goalscorer trixie makes its return, paying out at a general 50/1, and I am siding with a couple of underdogs.
MK Dons vs Leicester
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
After back-to-back relegations from the Premier League to League One, the fixture gods smiled on Leicester ahead of the new campaign.
With respect to the following clubs, Northampton at home in the cup, a trip to Notts County in their first League One game and then Burton at home should have been an opportunity to hit the ground running.
The Foxes were outplayed by Northampton, lucky to share the spoils at the Magpies then got Gary Bowyer-ed by the Brewers, and Russell Martin’s side were knocked out of the cup in midweek.
One point from the opening six on offer in the third tier then.
I suspect things could get worse on Saturday when they welcome MK DONS.
Paul Warne built a side ready to compete in the third tier last season and after automatic promotion from League Two, it wasn’t a surprise to see them priced as one of the ante-post favourites for the title.
Two draws against Huddersfield and Oxford represents a solid start and at 17/4 -1.0 on the ASIAN HANDICAP I think they are worth a punt Saturday lunchtime.
It’s money back if they win by a one goal margin, full payout if they win by two goals or more and a loss if they fail to win.
In a clash between Warne and Martin, I’d back the hosts' gaffer every time. In fact, these managers have met three times in the league, and Warne is yet to lose (W1 D2).
Southampton vs Millwall
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
MILLWALL have started the season well.
They’ve won all four of their games - beating QPR in the first round of the League Cup on penalties - with their two league wins coming to nil.
Both Bristol City and Norwich had a man sent off but the Lions were already in the ascendancy in both fixtures, going on to score a combined total of five goals and rack up an xG of 6.09.
Alex Neil’s side are top of the table and the expected table - old fashioned fans of the proper table and the data enthusiasts can both rejoice - albeit is way too early to put too much stock into either.
Promising signs though and at the prices available, the visitors are worth a punt DRAW NO BET at St Mary’s.
Opponents Southampton battered Colchester in the cup, then were battered by West Ham in the following round. They were deserved winners against Stoke in the league and undeserved losers at Watford.
I still have an inkling Tonda Eckert's reign on the South Coast could spectacularly implode.
There's no denying they were brilliant down the back nine last season but just how much of an edge did they gain from spygate?
Last season, their last league defeat came against Hull in mid-January. From that point, in all competitions the Saint’s only defeat came against Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final (W15 D8 L1).
Eleven of their wins over that period - two of which came beyond 90 minutes - came by a one goal margin.
They were riding the crest of the wave but I fancy them to struggle on Saturday against Millwall, last season's best travellers.
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie
- Southampton vs Millwall: Josh Coburn at 13/5 (Saturday, 15:00)
- Leyton Orient vs Barnsley: Reyes Cleary at 7/2 (Saturday, 15:00)
- York vs Exeter: Jayden Wareham at 10/3 (Saturday, 15:00)
JOSHUA COBURN, as he appears on Oddschecker, is audaciously priced TO SCORE ANYTIME as his Millwall side head to Southampton in the Championship on Saturday.
Betfred have quoted the shortest price at 19/10 as I write, and even that looks a touch big.
Sure, Millwall can be a fine margin away from home and the Saints only conceded 19 times on their own patch in the Championship last season.
But, the Lions top the xG charts in the second tier this season (6.09) and Coburn is top of the same metric for players (1.89).
He was at the double against Bristol City and hit the woodwork against Norwich, as his clever movement proves to be a constant issue for opposition defenders.
Coburn’s in the top 10 percentile in the division for xG, xG on target (1.62) and non-penalty xG (1.06) which is just a wordy way of saying, he’s bang in form.
The next leg comes from League One where Leyton Orient host Barnsley and I’m not willing to give up the ghost on REYES CLEARY.
I’m no closer to working out why he was dropped at Doncaster but to add insult to injury, he played the whole game against Crewe in midweek, scoring the equaliser.
In Tuesday’s cup game, Cleary started on the wing and could start there on the weekend - if he does get the nod from the off.
Personally, I think he’ll start upfront because the Reds only other frontman, Makenzie Kirk, has flattered to deceive this campaign. Even if Cleary does play on the wing though, his goals per 90 average of 0.24 last season makes the 7/2 available marginal value.
Hosts Orient have shipped an xGA of 4.44 in their opening two league games, so the Reds should get chances.
The final leg comes via York’s clash with Exeter in League Two.
It feels a bit risky but at the prices available, I cannot ignore JORDAN WAREHAM’s price to net.
The risk comes from the increasing possibility that he'll be snaffled up by a League One club. Wycombe have already had a couple of offers rebuffed with Barnsley, Luton, Leicester and Plymouth all reportedly interested. So, act accordingly.
He scored 19 times in League One last season (0.48 goals per 90) and has racked up an xG of 1.38 this season, failing to score from any of his eight shots.
Wareham will fancy his chances of opening his account on Saturday against the Minstermen, the hosts have conceded in all three of their games this season.
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (27/08/26)
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