- Jake's 25/26 Predictions (incl outrights): Staked 630.00pts | Returned 671.63pts | P/L +41.63pts | ROI 7%
- Jake's World Cup Predictions (incl outrights): Staked 204.60pts | Returned 286.22pts | P/L +81.62pts | ROI 40%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Jorge Cuenca to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
1pt Cole Palmer to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Cuenca and Palmer both to be carded at 20/1 (bet365)
Fulham vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sport Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Two new managers meet on Monday, with the pair extremely familiar with each other having shared time at both Liverpool and Real Madrid in their playing days. Alvaro Arbeloa's Fulham host Xabi Alonso's Chelsea in a West London derby that could be fiery.
While we don't know much about what to expect from the Cottagers under their relatively inexperienced coach, we know what Alonso will bring to Chelsea in terms of system which does help us in some ways. But what I think we can rely on in this game is that cards will flow.
This fixture has been great for cards in recent seasons. There have been at least four cards in all of the last six head-to-heads with an average of 5.0 per game, and last season's meeting at Craven Cottage saw six yellows and a red, with the now departed Marc Cucurella given his marching orders.
The referee appointment of John Brooks, who averaged 4.4 cards per game last season and started this campaign with a six yellow, one red showing in the Europa League, is a huge boost for card backers, and a couple of players leapt off the page at the prices.
The first of those is friend of the column JORGE CUENCA, who is 4/1 TO BE CARDED on Monday. The Spaniard was booked on multiple occasions when selected on these pages last season, and he should get the nod to start with Joachim Anderson suspended for this opener and Issa Diop moved on.
Cuenca was carded six times last season in just 938 minutes - an average of 0.58 cards per 90 - and faces a really stiff test here from a fluid Chelsea forward line who are all excellent foul drawers.
Striker Joao Pedro is a handful, winning 1.88 fouls per 90 last season, while Cole Palmer is elusive in his own right (1.69 fouls won per 90). Morgan Rogers is the big plus for this bet, though, with the Chelsea new-boy playing in the pocket in front of where Cuenca should be playing, cutting in from the left.
Rogers was responsible for getting multiple right backs and right centre-backs booked last season when at Aston Villa, and Cuenca looks a massive price all things considered.
The other player who makes the staking plan, less so for match-up and more for record purposes is COLE PALMER, who is 9/2 TO BE CARDED. That may seem a stingy price, but I make it value, with Palmer's card record sneaky good for punters.
The Englishman picked up seven cards in 23/24, the same tally in 24/25 and five last season, with his card per 90 average since joining Chelsea a solid 0.22, which would give a blanket price of 7/2 for any given game. This isn't any given game, with the card expectancy high (over 3.5 cards is 1/2), while in a new system, Palmer will be tasked with being even more aggressive in Alonso's high press.
And Palmer clearly buys into the derby aspect of this game. He has been carded in three of his five matches against Fulham since joining Chelsea, picking up two in three trips to Craven Cottage. That bodes well for us, for sure.
We'll also back the CUENCA AND PALMER CARD DOUBLE at 20/1.
Score prediction: Fulham 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 17:15 BST (21/08/26)
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