Ben Linfoot speaks to the BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith about Bristol De Mai's new 173 rating following his superb Betfair Chase display in this week's 'Weights & Measures'.
Betfair Chase, Grade 1, Haydock, Saturday November 25, 3m1 1/2f
- Bristol De Mai >>>> Up 13lb to 173
“When you win a race like that, it’s almost impossible to try and put up a sensible figure,” says BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith, the man tasked with the job of putting a number on Bristol De Mai’s 57-length Betfair Chase romp at Haydock on Saturday.
Considering the winning distance and the manner of the victory it conceivably could’ve been a higher rating, but 173 does look sensible. It puts Bristol De Mai 17th in the list of staying chasers to have run in Britain this century (see list below) and gives him the tag of ‘Best Betfair Chase Winner Since Kauto Star (Just)’, which seems fair.
That recent context helped Smith affirm his belief that 173 was the right rating for Bristol’s Betfair. In the years AK (After Kauto) Smith had Silviniaco Conti performing to 172 in 2012, Cue Card to 172 in 2013, Silviniaco Conti to 172 in 2014, Cue Card to 172 in 2015 and the same horse again to 168 last year. Kauto Star’s best Betfair produced a performance rating of 179.
“I also looked at his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies and his horse Imperial Commander, who was beaten a nose by Kauto Star in 2009,” said Smith.
“I had Imperial Commander performing to 174 that day. I didn’t think Bristol De Mai, in beating a number of under-performers, had achieved as much as Imperial Commander did that day in getting so close to Kauto Star.”
That may seem unsatisfactory or, perhaps, unfair on Bristol De Mai, but thankfully the handicapper had a more sophisticated way of arriving at a figure of 173, thanks to the handicap chase run over an identical trip half an hour later on the same card.
“I was lucky,” says Smith. “Yes, I looked at the historical context of the race, but more than that I looked at the time relativity with the handicap that took place 30 minutes later.
“Chase The Spud won the handicap and I was more confident of assessing him than I was Bristol De Mai.
“So I went with 148 for Chase The Spud. Bristol De Mai and Chase The Spud both carried exactly the same weight, 11 stone 7lb, so there’s no weight issue there, and Bristol De Mai’s time was 10 seconds faster than Chase The Spud’s.
“Ten seconds on that ground, we work on four lengths per second, so I’ve got a position where Bristol De Mai is 40 lengths superior to Chase The Spud. Then it’s just a question of what pounds per length I use and, on that ground, I went with five-eighths of a pound per length. Normally on good ground I’d use a pound per-length.
“On that maths five-eighths of 40 is 25, so I added that figure onto Chase The Spud’s 148 and it comes to 173. That looked about the sort of figure I thought it should be based on the historical context of the race and the way he was mighty impressive.”
The question for punters now is whether the 6/1 generally available about Bristol De Mai for the King George is a price worth getting onside.
He has to go the other way around, on a likely sounder surface, over a trip almost two furlongs shorter than the new distance of the Betfair Chase. And against different rivals too, the likes of Might Bite and Thistlecrack.
On ratings, if you believe in that 173, it’s easy to make a case for Bristol. He’s officially rated 12lb better than Might Bite and 2lb superior to Thistlecrack as well. Those two have potential improvement to factor in, they were novices last season and have raced just 13 times over fences between them, but there’s no doubt Bristol is now part of the argument. It makes for a fascinating King George if, please be the case, they all rock up.
“He is only six and he is entitled to be improving,” says Smith, when pondering whether Bristol De Mai could even improve on that 173 figure at Kempton.
“I’m happy with my figure of 173, but it’s not based on a relative rating to any other horse in the Betfair Chase, it’s based on a race run 30 minutes later so you have to be a little bit sceptical. I’d like to see it confirmed.”
On Boxing Day, Bristol De Mai will hopefully get the chance to do just that. The King George is already shaping up to be a thriller.
SKY BET ODDS: Bristol De Mai 6/1 for the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day
Staying Chasers in Britain since 2000 (career-best official rating)
- Kauto Star 193
- Imperial Commander 185
- Denman 182
- Long Run 182
- Bobs Worth 180
- Don Cossack 177
- Exotic Dancer 177
- See More Business 177
- Silviniaco Conti 177
- Cue Card 176
- Vautour 176
- Best Mate 175
- Kicking King 175
- Beef Or Salmon 174
- Neptune Collonges 174
- War Of Attrition 174
- BRISTOL DE MAI 173
Top Notch effort at Ascot
- Top Notch >>>> Up 3lb to 160
If Bristol De Mai’s owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede had a horse run on Saturday that probably should’ve been given a higher rating I’d argue that horse is Top Notch.
He was seriously impressive in the Grade 2 Christy 1965 Chase at Ascot, jumping brilliantly and travelling up front like a class act in the process of beating a good field with ease.
They went a good gallop, there’s no reason to doubt the form and he gave the 151-rated Double Shuffle 3lb and beat him eight lengths without fuss. I loved the way he pinged the last two and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t prove he’s better than a 160 horse by the end of the season.
The Ryanair Chase looks his long-term target and, while betting on the Cheltenham Festival this far in advance is fraught with danger, it’s been no surprise to see him backed for that race post-Ascot.
Available at 16/1 in the immediate aftermath of his weekend win, he’s a best of 10s now with the major bookies and he looks a huge player in the division on the evidence of his Ascot procession.
SKY BET ODDS: Top Notch 8/1 for the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Click here for full result and free Racing UK video replay
Defi has it all to do as Champion picture changes
- Defi Du Seuil >>>> Remains on 157
What a difference a week makes.
On the Saturday of Cheltenham last weekend JP McManus looked to have an ultra-strong Champion Hurdle hand with Buveur D’Air and Defi Du Seuil both single-figure prices in the betting.
The next day Faugheen blew away his Morgiana Hurdle rivals on his first start for 665 days, looking every inch the 172 horse the Irish handicapper had him down as despite the long absence.
And then Defi Du Seuil reappeared at Ascot on Saturday in the Coral Hurdle a shadow of his 2016-17 self, drifting out to 20s in places for the Champion on the back of a lacklustre, to say the least, display.
Let’s presume that 172 number is the sort of rating Defi Du Seuil would have to aspire to in order to win this season’s Champion Hurdle with Faugheen in the field and you get an idea of the size of his task.
Rated 157 following a brilliant juvenile season that saw him win seven from seven, he’ll have to improve 15lb on that form and do so after such a disappointing effort.
Lil Rockerfeller didn’t have to improve at all to win the race and he remains on 160, with Team Defi Du Seuil licking their wounds on the way back to the drawing board following a near 18-length fourth.
He was taking on race-fit rivals over a distance he hadn’t encountered before, so there is hope he can resume his upward curve once he drops back to two miles with the run under his belt.
But it’ll be tough for the upcoming five-year-old now. I can see why a few bookies are dangling 20s about him, a price Defi fans could only dream of a few weeks ago. Even those odds aren’t big enough to reel me in.
SKY BET ODDS: Defi Du Seuil 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Hike(s) Of The Week
- Sam Spinner >>>> Up 16lb to 155
- Ramses De Teillee >>>> Up 16lb to 138
Not one but two Hikes Of The Week as the handicapper dishes out a 16lb punishment to two horses that made him look like a right old fool in recent days.
Firstly Jedd O’Keefe’s Sam Spinner after his 17-length rout in the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock.
Formerly the ‘Fixed Brush’, Sam Spinner didn’t see another rival over the conventional hurdles and it’s hard to argue with his 16lb rise to 155 after such an easy success.
This somewhat forces O’Keefe’s hand and you would think a tilt at the Long Walk at Ascot on December 23 is now in the pipeline.
Meanwhile, at Chepstow last Wednesday, David Pipe’s Ramses De Teillee blew them away on his chasing debut in novice handicap company.
He was superb at his fences, bar getting in a tad too close at the third last, and won as he liked, eased down for a 17-length success.
A son of Martaline, just like Pipe’s Dynaste in the same colours of John White, this horse looks a serious tool and his progress should be monitored with interest.
He might even run at Taunton on Thursday in the novices’ limited handicap at 1.50, where he’ll be 9lb well-in under a 7lb penalty should he take his chance.
SKY BET ODDS: Sam Spinner 25/1 for the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Get down, deeper and down
- Creep Desbois >>>> Down 3lb to 124
- I See You Well >>>> Down 2lb to 122
Finally, we’ll finish off with two dropping down the charts that have the potential to bounce back in the coming weeks and months.
Down three at 124… Creep Desbois. Ben Pauling described Creep Desbois as ‘a little dinger of a horse that I’d like to think would be good enough to figure in one of the novice handicaps in the spring’ in his stable tour. There should be room for manoeuvre off his new handicap mark of 124, then, after an encouraging debut over fences at Ascot on Saturday. He was a little bit keen on his first go at three miles and he weakened late on, but he shaped with much promise and a slight drop in trip next time could be the answer.
Down two at 122… I See You Well. Seamus Mullins’ horse put in his best performance yet over fences when third to Drumcliff at Wincanton. He shaped like he needs further than two miles and it’s worth remembering his best effort over hurdles came over two-and-a-half miles. That was a handicap win off 120, and he won it by over three lengths, so he’ll be of serious interest off 122 next time out if he’s unleashed over a longer trip.
*Both Creep Desbois and I See You Well have been added to the Sporting Life Jumps Notebook, which you can find here.
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