Andrew Asquith, John Ingles and Tony McFadden tackle the big questions leading up to this weekend's action at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Are you with Galopin des Champs or against him in the Irish Gold Cup?
Andrew Asquith: Galopin des Champs is still Timeform’s highest-rated chaser in training and, though he met with a rare defeat at Leopardstown in the Savills Chase over Christmas, he was returning from eight months off. History tells us that he invariably comes on a bundle for his first run of the season and he did enough on that occasion to suggest that he retains plenty of ability despite his rising age. It looks a cracking renewal of the Irish Gold Cup, but I fully expect him to turn the tables with Affordale Fury and stablemate I Am Maximus, and he’s proven a couple of times before he has too much for Fact To File over this course and distance, and that rival arrives on the back of a below-par effort in the King George.
John Ingles: At the prices, it’s tempting to try to find something to beat him, but he has a fantastic record in this race and at Leopardstown in general, and with that run in the Savills Chase under his belt, he must have good prospects of turning the tables on Affordale Fury and I Am Maximus who finished just ahead of him there. Much more testing conditions this weekend are another reason to expect him to improve on that run, so I’d have to be with him, though at each-way odds I could see I Am Maximus staying on for place money again.
Tony McFadden: Like Andy and John, I'd expect Galopin des Champs to take a step forward from his reappearance in the Savills Chase and prove difficult to beat. This is a numerically strong edition and has attracted the largest field this century but it's hard to see many rivals getting close to the level Galopin des Champs has produced at his best. Clearly, there has to be some doubt whether he'll be able to recapture his very best form at ten years old and after so many seasons competing at the top level, but his comeback effort was encouraging and he'll be suited by the more testing conditions on Saturday placing a greater emphasis on stamina.
Will Lossiemouth uphold the form with Brighterdaysahead in the Irish Champion Hurdle?
AA: Brighterdaysahead got her career back on track when beaten a length by Lossiemouth in the December Hurdle over this course and distance on her return, but the latter didn’t need to be at her best, and I’d be in her corner again. Lossiemouth is a prolific hurdler who was landing her ninth Grade 1 success that day and she had more in hand than the bare margin implied, closed down only on the run-in having looked firmly in control heading to the final flight. She fell in this race 12 months ago, but she’ll be a short-priced favourite to make amends this time around.
JI: That’s not at all certain. There’s only a pound between them on Timeform ratings and the betting also makes it a close-run thing. Lossiemouth had a length to spare over Brighterdaysahead in the December Hurdle here, but while the winner had a victory in the Morgiana under her belt, Gordon Elliott’s mare was having her first run since Punchestown in the spring so is entitled to come on for the run and gain her revenge. It will be an interesting one tactically, though, with Lossiemouth one of five for Mulllins against just the two for Elliott.
TM: Brighterdaysahead may have been making her comeback at Christmas time but she was doing so with the Gordon Elliott stable in red-hot form, so perhaps there won't be as much improvement as you might typically expect following a seasonal reappearance. I thought Lossiemouth always looked to be doing enough, despite Brighterdaysahead responding so gallantly to pressure, and I'd expect the form to be upheld.
Is there a handicapper you're interested in at the Dublin Racing Festival?
AA: Unexposed six-year-old County Final looks of interest in the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (14:25) on Saturday. He opened his account by a wide margin over 19 furlongs at Navan in September and, while that wasn’t the strongest race of its type, he has shown much-improved form in defeat in a handicap and Grade 2 event since. County Final filled the runner-up spot both times, and each time he left the impression the race didn’t get to the bottom of him. He split a couple of next-time-out winners over an inadequate trip at Punchestown two starts back and was beaten only a head by another improver at Limerick last time. That race didn’t really test his stamina properly given the moderate fractions that were set, and this completely different environment, in what will likely be a strongly-run race, will place the emphasis on stamina, which will suit him well, especially in forecast conditions.
JI: Mark Walsh has chosen to ride County Final in the three-mile handicap hurdle, but J. P. McManus’ other runner Son of Anarchy looks interesting with Jack Kennedy back on board after being successful on him at Punchestown two starts ago. He’s run well since when a staying-on third at Navan and, given he hasn’t had much racing for a seven-year-old, the step up to three miles could well bring about further improvement, while he’s proven in testing conditions too.
TM: We won't have the declarations for Sunday's racing until Friday morning, but Ile Atlantique would interest me if making his handicap debut in the Leopardstown Chase. He looked like a potentially high-class novice after easily winning his first couple of starts last season, but his campaign ended with a whimper. He got back on the right sort of track when runner-up to Heart Wood in the Grade 3 chase at Tramore on New Year's Day, however, and could well outclass his rivals from a fair-looking mark in handicaps.
Give us a horse who should relish the testing conditions at Leopardstown
AA: Jacob’s Ladder has won three times over hurdles and fences and all of those wins came on ground that Timeform described as either soft or heavy. He was beaten only by a very smart prospect in a Grade 3 event at Punchestown recently, and that was a clear career-best effort. Jacob’s Ladder was doing all of his best work at the finish in what was a modestly-run affair and, despite dropping back in trip for his handicap debut (16:05 Leopardstown, Saturday), this should be run at a good tempo, and conditions will place the emphasis on stamina. He’s potentially well treated.
JI: Kazansky evidently handled the heavy ground well when winning a Grade 2 novice at Limerick on Boxing Day and given that was over a furlong further than the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, his proven stamina makes him an interesting alternative to short-priced favourite Doctor Steinberg who was a winner himself in heavy ground last time. Kazansky needs to improve again but could well do so, especially if they go more of a gallop than they did at Limerick.
TM: I'm also drawn to Kazansky in what could prove a thorough test for some inexperienced horses. As well as having shown his effectiveness on heavy ground at Limerick - where conditions really can get testing - Kazansky has plenty of stamina in his pedigree being out of a sister to Irish Grand National winner Thunder And Roses. He could be keeping on when others have cried enough.
Who gets your vote in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown?
AA: Only four runners but there is still plenty of quality on show. Kitzbuhel was impressive in the Kauto Star at Kempton over Christmas, but he’ll face competition for the lead down in trip from Sixmilebridge, and it could be set up nicely for Kala Conti with that in mind. She was very impressive in a Grade 2 mares novice over two miles at Cork last month, stretching clear of her rivals from two out, and she should be well suited by the return to this longer trip. Kala Conti gets a handy 7lb sex allowance and she looks the pick at the prices for me.
JI: It looks like being another of the Mullins v Elliott clashes this weekend, and while Elliott’s mare Kala Conti comes out top on the ratings with the help of her allowance, preference is for Kitzbuhel who is also two from two over fences. Kala Conti’s wins have come against other mares, whereas Kitzbuhel won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase last time with a particularly good round of jumping. The shorter trip and softer ground won’t be an issue and he’s likely to prove hard to peg back again if getting into the same rhythm again over these fences.
TM: Kitzbuhel's bold jumping allowed him to take some slower rivals out of their comfort zone over three miles around Kempton, but I think he'll find it harder to unsettle Kala Conti. She has shown ability and versatility over fences this season, winning a Cork beginners' chase over 21 furlongs on her reappearance before showing even better form to slam Kargese in a Grade 2 over 17 furlongs back at the same venue. The runner-up clearly wasn't at her best but it was still a smart effort from Kala Conti, who can make the most of the 7 lb sex allowance she receives from the geldings here.
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