Our expert trio of Ben Linfoot, Andrew Asquith and Matt Brocklebank are on hand to tackle the big punting posers on a huge weekend both sides of the Channel.
Some quality two-year-olds on show at Newmarket on Saturday – which race excites you the most?
Ben Linfoot: I’m really looking forward to the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes. Firstly, we’ll get to see the Vandeek v River Tiber rematch and different ground conditions could well throw up a different result to the Prix Morny. They are the form pair but it’s far from a two-horse race with Jasour a likely different proposition than he was in France on this better ground, while TASK FORCE looks an exciting prospect. Ralph Beckett’s son of Frankel won despite the track at Ripon last time and the form was boosted in last week’s Mill Reef, so that experience should do him the world of good. It looks a cracking race.
Andrew Asquith: It has to be the Middle Park for me and I can see RIVER TIBER reversing the Prix Morny form with Vandeek. He was reportedly short of work before that assignment, only taking part in the race after coming through a canter the day before, and he still managed to match his Coventry winning form. River Tiber kept on in the closing stages as though the run would bring him forward and, back on likely better ground, I expect him to be ridden more positively, just like he was in his first three starts, and prove too strong for his rivals.
Matt Brocklebank: The Royal Lodge is probably the race I'm most likely to have a bet in and although original fancy Arabic Legend wasn't declared for the race, it's interesting to see his trainer Andrew Balding - and same owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum - pitch CAVIAR HEIGHTS into the race instead. He's only officially rated 87 but is clearly going the right way after opening his account at the third time of asking and the attitude he showed that day should stand him in good stead. He's a big price.
Who will be carrying your cash in the bet365 Cambridgeshire?
Ben Linfoot: At the moment I’m most persuaded by the claims of Ed Dunlop’s Haunted Dream at 25/1. He has been banging on the door in some of the top 10-furlong handicaps of the summer, finishing third twice at York in the John Smith’s Cup and a red-hot Ebor Festival handicap, while he was second in the Chesterfield Cup at Goodwood in between. He shapes as though a strongly-run nine furlongs will be ideal for him and Morgan Cole is set to take a handy 5lb off, helping him with his recent nudge up the weights.
Andrew Asquith: One horse who I have been a big fan of this season is Terwada, who looked potentially smart when bolting up at Nottingham in June and, though he had to work harder when following up on handicap debut on the July Course, he still proved himself quite a way ahead of his mark. Terwada was asked a bigger question in a competitive handicap at York last time, but was far from disgraced, and arguably did well to finish as close as he did, making his challenge away from the action having had to come wide into the straight. His run style and pedigree suggest he will relish the extra furlong on the Cambridgeshire and odds around 25/1 for a horse of his potential look too big in my eyes.
Matt Brocklebank: I don't want to back myself into a corner ahead of Value Bet decision day on Friday but there are clearly loads with chances so no doubt I'll look to oppose the skinny favourite Greek Order. He's a progressive three-year-old but he's not the only one and Ed Walker is making all the right noises about Terwada, who I recently flagged up as running better than the bare form indicated in the Clipper Handicap at York. Killybegs Warrior is a lot more exposed but I reckon he could go well again from a prominent position under James Doyle, while Charlie Johnston stablemate Dutch Decoy is no back-number either. I'll do doubt end up backing something else entirely!
Can the raiding party get on the scoresheet at Longchamp on Saturday?
Ben Linfoot: Yes, hopefully they can. I’m expecting big runs from Jack Darcy and SEA SILK ROAD for reasons given here with slight preference for William Haggas’ filly if I had to pick one. She looks in good form to my eyes and I’m convinced the extra two furlongs will bring about more improvement in her.
Andrew Asquith: Saturday's card isn't usually one I get too involved in but the Roger Varian-trained EMBESTO in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein. His sole defeat in his career so far came at the hands of Nostrum, who was at the top of his game, in a listed event at Newmarket, and he displayed a terrific attitude to force a dead-heat in the Sovereign Stakes Salisbury last time. Embesto remains less exposed than the majority of rivals he will face on Saturday and remains a horse to be positive about.
Matt Brocklebank: AL AASY surely wasn't seen to best effect in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes at Leopardstown and it's a ride Jim Crowley would probably choose to have another crack at, if that were possible. The horse was staying on strongly at the line to go down just half a length to the enterprisingly-ridden Adelaide River and it proved he remains in top form. Dropping back to 10 furlongs shouldn't be an issue and the ground conditions look quite favourable too so I could see William Haggas' horse atoning for his defeat during the Irish Champions Festival.
Sunday’s Arc looks as fiercely competitive as ever – how do you see the great race panning out?
Ben Linfoot: It’s a good renewal and I think it revolves around Ace Impact who could be the one who blows the field away. However, I do have a niggling doubt about him seeing out the trip given his tendency to be keen over shorter distances and I’d rather back HUKUM at 9/2. He looks to be in the form of his life and he has the strongest form at the trip after that barnstorming King George. I think he’ll confirm the form with Westover, who might just be a bit headstrong for this after a few months off, the same break seemingly a major positive for Hukum who settles serenely now and goes well fresh.
Andrew Asquith: This year's renewal kind of revolves around the unbeaten Ace Impact, who has been talked up by trainer Jean-Claude Rouget in the lead up and, on his Prix du Jockey Club win, he probably is the form choice with his weight-for-age allowance. However, he needs to prove himself over a mile and a half and, at the prices, I quite like the claims of WESTOVER in his rematch against Hukum. He went down on his sword in the King George and, given the ground is forecast to be drying out all of the time, that may give him an edge, and he hasn't got much to find with the six-year-old. He looks a solid bet to me.
Matt Brocklebank: I effectively made my bed on the evening of the St Leger and will happily sleep in it after CONTINUOUS was supplemented for the Arc on Wednesday. He oozed class in the Doncaster Classic and while I fully admit he may not possess the brilliant turn of foot of fellow three-year-old Ace Impact, he remains quite a fair price around the 6/1 mark given he's obviously on a massive upward curve, stays the trip well and goes on any ground. A nice in stall seven is just the icing on the cake.
Who do you fancy in the Abbaye this year, and is there anything else we should be looking out for on Longchamp’s big day?
Ben Linfoot: I wouldn’t be surprised to see GET AHEAD put in a career-best performance in the Abbaye for Clive Cox. Whether that will be good enough to win remains to be seen but she could offer a spot of value. She ran a belter in second in the Flying Five at the Curragh last time as the pre-race showers went against her and she looks to be in the best shape she has ever been in. In June she ran a very good race at Chantilly, too, so we know she can handle travelling overseas well and with the drying ground in her favour she could well cause a bit of a shock. In the Prix de l’Opera, Joseph O’Brien’s Lumiere Rock could take a bit of beating if the cheekpieces work again second time out.
Andrew Asquith: The Abbaye is a real test of speed and, given Highfield Princess disappointed in Ireland last time, I'm prepared to take a flyer on DRAMATISED at a big price. She has disappointed in the King's Stand and Nunthorpe on her last two starts, but she is capable of mixing it at this level when putting it all together, and provided she fares well with the draw, it wouldn't at all surprise me if she caused a surprise. Of the rest, Rogue Millennium is proving a credit to her connections, and I expect her to produce another bold showing in the Prix de l'Opera. The step back up to a mile and a quarter may actually help her and her form when second to Tahiyra in the Matron Stakes last time is very solid.
Matt Brocklebank: The Abbaye is a race that has driven me a little mad over the years (not in a good way) so I do tend to tread carefully in France's big five-furlong contest. I do like the Prix de l'Opera, though, and I fancy JANNAH ROSE to win it this year. Her narrow success in last month's Prix Alec Head at Deauville has worked out really well, with second Lumiere Rock and third Eternal Hope winning since, and she's looking to defend her unbeaten Longchamp record this weekend.
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