Our expert panel of Matt Brocklebank, Ben Linfoot and Ian Ogg answer some of the key questions heading into the weekend's racing.
Ben Linfoot: It’s an interesting move from Paul Nicholls, for sure. He says it’s the "perfect race" for the novice and it’s hard to disagree with that when you consider he wants to get match practice into him over fences around Cheltenham. Bar running over an unsuitable trip, this is the only option he has left.
He brings a fresh and fascinating angle to a race where several of the established stars have points to prove – Royale Pagaille gets the chance to prove himself at Cheltenham away from the glare of the Gold Cup, The Real Whacker needs to prove himself out of novice company in his second season over fences, Datsalrightgino has to prove himself at this level after graduating from handicap company. AHOY SENOR has to prove he can jump well enough to win a race of this nature, just like he did in this contest last year, and it could well be a small-field Grade 2 like this suits him perfectly.
Ian Ogg: It's a welcome move and there certainly seems little to lose as I'm sure Harry Cobden will be under instruction to look after Stay Away Fay should things go awry against these more experienced opponents but if they don't, Stay Away Fay should learn from a run in open company.
Royale Pagaille's only Cheltenham outings have been in the Gold Cup but he's raced predominantly on flat circuits so I prefer the claims of course winner THE REAL WHACKER who had excuses for his disappointing seasonal reappearance and didn't fare too badly in the King George last time.
Matt Brocklebank: I love it, in short. Taking on more experienced chasers, especially in the staying division, can be a really tall order but there's not a huge amount in this field that'd frighten you off and I've no doubt Stay Away Fay is a proper Gold Cup horse for the future. Whether that's this season or next, we'll know a lot more by Saturday evening, but I think he's got every chance in this sort of company.
The only thing putting me off is that Paul Nicholls' horses can sometimes just be a little bit flat in January and the strike-rate is clearly down again for the month this year. I hope he lives up to his billing though as he's a proper Cheltenham horse with bottomless stamina.
No bet.
Ben Linfoot: Nobody is rushing to oppose JONBON here, are they? Look, he’s quite clearly the class act in the race and the fact he beat his nearest rival in the betting, Editeur Du Gite, by 43 lengths over the course and distance two starts ago, says a lot.
Having said that, I wouldn’t be brave enough to have a meaty bet on this horse at 1/3, as I do think he’s got it in him to be a bit of a thinker, and I’d make sure I’d have Editeur Du Gite and Fugitif involved with him in my Placepot perm, with that in mind.
Ian Ogg: James Bowen won't be short of advice and instruction on how to ride Jonbon or any quirks or characteristics so I don't see the new pilot being any barrier to landing another Grade 1.
I think he is impossible to oppose and, boringly, that second favourite EDITEUR DU GITE can follow him home having posted his best effort for a year in winning the Desert Orchid Chase last time.
Matt Brocklebank: Jonbon does have his quirks, I think that's fair to say, so James Bowen will have to be fully focused but I don't see that being an issue, nor do I see Saturday's opposition being much of an issue either as he's far superior.
NUBE NEGRA might be the one 'without the favourite' as Dan Skelton's horses are going well now and I do think this horse is a different animal on better ground. If the rain stays away I think he could pick up some of the pieces in this.
Ben Linfoot: Both are really bright prospects in different ways and I was really impressed with Sir Gino at Kempton over Christmas given he’s a big, raw, future chaser.
With that in mind I prefer BURDETT ROAD for Saturday’s assignment as he just looks slicker over his hurdles and his Flat speed could be the defining factor, again, this weekend.
Ian Ogg: BURDETT ROAD can confirm his position as the leading British juvenile at the expense of Sir Gino. The latter was impressive at Kempton but did show his inexperience on just his second start whereas Burdett Road has a number of runs under his belt and looks the more professional of the pair and can prove the better of them at this point.
Those two should serve up a good match but there's interest behind them too. Milan Tino was quite a well backed favourite against Burdett Road in November so it's intriguing that he's asked to travel from France again, while Excelero should come on for his debut second behind Chepstow Finale winner Salver. Le Fauve was second to Anzadam in France in September and that one won again before joining Willie Mullins; again, it will be interesting to see if Le Fauve can improve on a British debut where he failed to live up to market expectations.
Matt Brocklebank: You're right to suggest 'clash' as while Milan Tino wasn't disgraced here last time and Excelero is clearly a nice project for Jane Williams, who does well with this sort of horse, the big two of BURDETT ROAD and Sir Gino are seemingly cut from a different cloth.
At the moment, I'm with the former but we simply don't know how good Sir Gino could be and if he brushes up his hurdling technique then I suspect that could be very good indeed. Burdett Road was hardly impressive in the jumping department either but his Flat speed is a massive weapon on drying ground and I believe he's already a potential Triumph Hurdle winner.
Ben Linfoot: The McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle is a belting race and with three old boys dominating the betting I wouldn’t be surprised if a minor shock was forthcoming. There’s no doubt Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher are holding their form well despite their advancing years, but they are hardly winning machines these days and you have to expect the odd dip in form at their age.
BOTOX HAS is an eight-year-old who doesn’t have much to find and the first-time visor is fascinating, as Gary Moore uses the headgear sparingly. In fact, he’s used a first-time visor on his hurdlers just four times in the last three years and three of them won, including at 14/1, so Botox Has very much catches the eye.
Ian Ogg: The International and Cleeve Hurdles both have points of interest and I'm keen to see how Challow fourth Johnnywho fares in the last but top of the list is GA LAW in the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast.
I thought he was one of the more interesting outsiders in the Coral Gold Cup and he didn't run badly and was still in contention in the straight. He's been dropped by a couple of pounds and has proved to be competitive from his current mark; it's just his second run in cheekpieces (worn for the first time at Newbury) and the headgear could still be a positive and help the eight-year-old get back to the sort of form that saw him beat French Dynamite in the 2022 renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Matt Brocklebank: I'll be tackling the handicaps in detail in tomorrow's Value Bet column and won't issue any spoilers here, but Emmet Mullins and the Waley-Cohens obviously mean business booking Harry Cobden for NOBLE YEATS and I wonder if he can tee up a shot at the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle with victory in the Cleeve.
He's not a spent force yet by any means and, as a bit of an aside, if all goes well here then don't forget to keep a note of the BHA mark given to Sa Majeste, who beat Noble Yeats off level weights at Limerick over Christmas. He could well be heading for a major handicap hurdle near you in the non-too-distant future...
Ben Linfoot: Lots of star names on show on Town Moor this Saturday but away from the startlingly obvious I’m looking forward to seeing CALICO in the opening handicap chase over two miles.
He did too much too soon at Cheltenham last time but he likes a flat track and is a course and distance winner, so he’s of interest here given I reckon he’s still in good form. The better the ground, the better his chance, too, so I’ll be keeping an eye on the weather in the build-up to Saturday.
Ian Ogg: Looking beyond your Jeriko Du Reponets and Ashroe Diamonds, I've long had a soft spot for Richmond Lake and am more than happy to forgive his run at Cheltenham on New Year's Day on testing ground. He's not a cast-iron stayer on this first attempt (under Rules) to stay three miles in the Sky Bet Great Yorkshire for although there is stamina in his pedigree, his racing style hasn't suggested he's crying out for a stiffer test; connections believe he is learning to relax but they are testing the water in the deep end.
So, with that in mind, I'll nominate TRAPRAIN LAW (runs in the opener) instead as he was a stylish winner of a three-runner race on his second chase start; this represents a far greater test of his mettle and will give us an idea of whether he was flattered or if he's a horse to get excited about.
Matt Brocklebank: He's one of the most exposed runners in the field but the Albert Bartlett River Don Novices' Hurdle is always a proper test of stamina and having a few hairs on the chest already is no bad thing when it comes to THE NEWEST ONE.
He's been in good form back hurdling this term and just didn't like the heavy ground at Cheltenham last time. He's won at Doncaster before, has conditions to suit and is going to set out to make all the running. It could take a decent one with plenty of guts to chase him down.
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