Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graham North

Where do you start?

"You can’t win your race at the start but you can lose it," former 20-time champion jockey Sir Anthony McCoy was quoted in the racing press after analysing the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase won by Pic D’Orhy at Ascot, only then to add - rather perversely: “Harry Cobden won his race at the start whereas the other two (Charlie Deustch who was riding L’Homme Presse and Derek Fox who was riding Ahoy Senor) might have lost it."

To give McCoy some credit, he was at least right about Cobden winning the race at the start. With Ahoy Senor heavily restrained under a change of tactics and L’Homme Presse needing to be pushed along to build up some momentum, the heavily-backed Pic D’Orhy stole a march and never looked like relinquishing his lead to land his second Grade One (after the 2023 Melling Chase) unchallenged in a modest 131 timefigure testament to a stop-start pace that saw the complete outsider Sail Away finish many lengths closer than he was entitled to on form.

According to my stopwatch Pic D’Orhy was already four lengths ahead of Ahoy Senor jumping the first, a margin that had increased to eight lengths at the final fence on the first circuit and 11 at the final fence before Swinley Bottom, after which the chasing trio closed to within five approaching the home turn only for Pic D’Orhy to romp away again with disdain.

Cheltenham preparations they might have been having but I think it’s unlikely that either L’Homme Presse or Ahoy Senor would have roughed up Pic D’Orhy ridden differently; after all he was running at his optimal trip at a track where he had twice scored at Grade Two level over fences making the running in small fields, whereas neither L’Homme Presse nor Ahoy Senor had run at a trip this short for over two years.

Where are Presse Gold Cup credentials now?

L’Homme Presse will need to jump a lot better than he did here to be a factor at Cheltenham, which he might do of course at the slower tempo the Gold Cup will be run at, but his career best remains his effort in the King George (where he would have finished runner-up had he not unseated at the last) which is 10lb shy of Gold Cup-winning level.

As for the increasingly underwhelming Ahoy Senor, I’m not sure what benefit if any he gained from this bizarre piece of placing and tactical execution. He’s in the Ryanair and the Gold Cup yet again not in the race that would surely suit him better, the Stayers’ Hurdle where he would have only 12 flights to jump instead of the 22 fences that would face him in the Gold Cup.

His stable had the favourite Apple Away in the other Graded race on the card, the Grade 2 Sodexo Live! Reynoldstown Novices' Chase, but she managed only third, albeit not beaten far behind the progressive Henry’s Friend who was one of three winners on the card for the in-form Ben Pauling yard.

A 143 timefigure on his first try at three miles over fences is easily a career best for the winner and bodes well for his prospects when given an even stiffer test of stamina. Threeunderthrufive posted the best timefigure on the card, 148, in the feature handicap to gain his first win for over two years though the fact he could do so at a trip shorter than he has been running at probably says more about the current limitations of the opposition than it does about him.

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Beware of the Cromwell British raiders

Up at Haydock, Gavin Cromwell was one of two trainers to have onside with his two raiders winning the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial and the Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices’ Hurdle. Cromwell, who has openly admitted winning races in Britain is easier than in Ireland, hadn’t had any luck with his previous seven runners at Haydock but his record when coming over from Ireland stands the closest inspection.

Since June 1st, 2023 he has saddled 11 winners in Britain at a strike rate of 25%, significantly up in terms of both numbers and strike rate from previous seasons, and he’ll no doubt be strongly represented at Cheltenham next month where his Festival record is four winners from 26 runners since 2018 (his record outside of the Festival in the same time frame is eight from 24), though neither of his Haydock winners, Yeah Man (Grand National Trial) nor Now Is The Hour, will reportedly be making the journey.

The last Irish-trained winner of Haydock’s Grand National Trial, Nuaffe in 1995, went on to contest both the Gold Cup (unseated ninth) and the Grand National (fell 20th) before finishing ninth in the Irish National after a bad mistake at the first. Back then, the Haydock fences were some of the most feared in Britain and long-distance handicap chases were the mainstay of battle-hardened veterans – eight of the ten runners in Nuaffe’s year were ten or older, for example – but the latest running over much softer fences was a more youthful affair with Yeah Man one of two seven-year-olds in the line-up.

A last-fence faller (when sure to have finished at least second) and runner-up at Ascot on his previous two outings, Yeah Man defied another rise in the weights in a race that didn’t become the out-and-out slog it often has done with his race-winning 108% finishing speed being unusually high for a race of this nature on heavy ground. As a consequence, his winning timefigure was a lowly 100 but he’d run a 133 at Ascot before Christmas and, given he promises to be suited by an even stiffer test of stamina, a strong gallop in the Irish National would surely ensure he rates even higher.

Now Is The Hour was a very authoritative winner of the Prestige which was too much of a test for several of the field despite another steady gallop (finishing speed 109% and a winning timefigure of just 87). With all of the four market leaders being pulled up and the nine-year-old mare Don’t Rightly Know back in second, albeit a distant runner-up in worsening conditions after an afternoon of heavy rain, on the face of things this form might seem muddling. However, a time over four seconds faster than the Timeform 136-rated Cuthbert Dibble managed in the Pertemps Qualifier and much faster sectionals from each of three out, two out and the final hurdle suggest to me he ran to a similar figure, for all he carried the best part of a stone less.

The other three-mile hurdle on the card, the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle, went to Botox Has in a 141 timefigure, 10lb less than the performance rating Timeform awarded him.

In all honesty, he didn’t have to achieve anything he hadn’t done already to beat a motley bunch of rivals among whom only one was rated higher than 138, and his trainer is probably right to think more of Aintree than Cheltenham given he has beaten only five finishers in his last three visits to Prestbury Park. Botox Has was the second leg of a double for trainer Gary Moore who had earlier saddled Salver to win the Victor Ludorum. Still unbeaten but still also to run a fast time - his best timefigure in his four wins is a lowly 99 – Salver is another unlikely to turn up at Cheltenham unless the ground comes up soft or heavy which it has done only twice on Friday at Cheltenham since 2010 according to Timeform.

Tullyhill still has it to prove

There were several performances of note in Ireland last week with Cheltenham in mind, none more so if the bookmakers are to be believed than Tullyhill’s win in a listed novice hurdle at Punchestown that looked more a trial for one of the handicaps for the majority of runners than the Sky Bet Supreme.

That’s the race the winner has shortened into 5/1 for, though, after an all-the-way uncontested victory over a very weak in the market No Flies On Him. There’s little wrong with Tullyhill’s 2023 bumper from when he won at Gowran before finishing runner-up to A Dream To Share at Punchestown, but he hadn’t achieved much when winning a very weak novice at Naas in January and a 144 timefigure on this occasion might well flatter him to some degree here given it was the first race on heavy ground on the inside hurdles track where accurate standards have been hard to establish.

If weights and measures and distances beaten are your thing then the 2.1 seconds that Tullyhill passed the line in front of Jigoro beats for sure the 1.4 seconds that Mystical Power beat the same horse at Punchestown in January. However, Mystical Power (the first foal of Annie Power) achieved that feat from behind in a much more slowly-run race that didn’t develop until the home turn and I know which one I’d prefer to be on given good to soft or faster ground come the Supreme.

Interestingly, the Grade 3 Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran on Saturday went to another relation of Annie Power, this time her half-sister's daughter Langtry Lady, who retained her unbeaten record with a ready defeat of her only serious rival What’s Up Darling in another serious exposure of the bloated Irish Graded programme.

A 134 timefigure on just her second start and first for nearly a year reads well by itself but I’d have this nearer the top end of the 140s after sectional upgrades are included and she looks a very smart prospect – and not one in the hands of Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott either! Talking of Mullins, his novice chaser Mister Policeman got back on track at Punchestown on Sunday with a decent effort on paper, but the opposition was weak and a 133 timefigure can’t be upgraded much above 140 on sectionals, so handicaps look to be his game going forwards.

I’ve run out of space to address the current crop of bumper horses as promised last week, but with a quiet weekend ahead I’ll get around to them next week as well as discussing whether jumps races domestically are too strongly run as Harry Fry and Aidan Coleman claimed rather oddly this week.

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