Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Quite what is Ascot’s National Hunt equivalent of the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the middle-distance highlight of the domestic Flat campaign and won last year by a true champion in Calandagan, I’m not sure; the majority vote would probably be for the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase just gone over two miles five furlongs, though the Clarence House Chase (in January, two miles) and the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (three miles) in December would also muster support.

A quick look through the winners of all three races since 2010 reveals numerous multiple dual winners; Crambo and Paisley Park both won the Long Walk twice while Shishkin, Un De Sceaux, Cue Card, Riverside Theatre and Pic d’Orhy all won the Ascot Chase or Clarence House (or a combination) twice over fences.

With his win in the latest Ascot Chase (replay below), Jonbon now joins triple Long Walk winner Reve De Sivola as the only other horse in that period to win one or more of those races three times, complimenting his success in the 2025 and 2026 Clarence House with a hard-fought victory over Pic d’Orhy who was aiming to join that select cohort himself.

One would imagine that those horses who have managed three Grade 1 wins at Ascot might have fared better at the subsequent Cheltenham Festival than those who won two but that hasn’t been the case – while Riverside Theatre, Cue Card and Un De Sceaux all scored at the Cheltenham Festival, more often than not in the Ryanair, and Paisley Park landed the Stayers’ Hurdle, Reve de Sivola never finished closer then fourth in the stayers championship event (he did manage second spot in the Baring Bingham at the start of his career) while Jonbon has finished second in his three visits to the Festival, in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle initially and then in the Arkle and Champion Chase.

Whether Jonbon (for whom this was a twelfth Grade 1 win) manages to break that Cheltenham duck finally this year depends surely upon the race chosen for his participation, which can only realistically now be the Ryanair after this display where he once again had to knuckle down after getting tapped for toe before rallying strongly to catch Pic d’Orhy who’d got first run on him going to the second last and win by a length and a half. His career six timefigures of 165 or higher are vastly better than the majority of Festival winners have achieved, and two wins at the track in seven visits – in the Shloer Chase in both 2023 and 2024 - suggest the course itself isn’t the issue it’s often painted to be, with a first Festival try on the more stamina-sapping New Course should he take in the Ryanair a better fit for him maybe than the Old Course.

The proximity of Blow Your Wad in the latest Ascot Chase and a winning timefigure of 144 suggests its form might not be up to the level of some previous renewals, but he’ll be going there more battle-hardened than in previous years (and far less fresh than when second after an absence on his only previous attempt on the New Course on top of which a bad error four out pretty much stopped him in his tracks) and he’s only a few pounds to find with either Fact To File or Gaelic Warrior presuming one of them is given an alternative target. Give how well he saw the two miles five furlongs at Ascot out, a shot at the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day surely ought to be under consideration too – it will be his only real chance, after all - but Henderson has long had a reputation as someone reluctant to step horses up in trip and his comments post Ascot suggest it’s not in his thoughts.

Looking at the finishing sectionals on Ascot’s card, there were some impressive figures posted by another horse in the same ownership as Jonbon, Montregard, in the Swinley Handicap Chase, also sponsored by Betfair (replay below).

Slightly out of the handicap, as was the runner-up Gericault Roque, in a premier handicap that illustrated the harsh treatment of long-in-the-tooth handicappers outside of veteran races (fourteen year-old top weight Sam Brown was racing off 154, a mark 2lb higher from which he won an uncompetitive veterans race at Newbury a year previously and only received a 4lb drop for this) Montregard travelled strongly throughout and raced through the final half a mile around seven lengths faster than Jonbon despite having competed to that point in virtually the same furlong by furlong time and that despite his race being almost three furlongs further. He looks one for a spring Festival handicap.

In contrast, the winner of the historically important novice chase run over the same distance, the Reynoldstown, was a steadily run affair that saw the winner The Jukebox Kid return a lowly 94 timefigure; in the circumstances, given that he covered the distance to four furlongs out over eleven seconds (around three quarters of a furlong) slower than Montregard one might have expected a faster finish than the 0.7 seconds he managed from that point; indeed, the tracking data showed that Montregard ended up running the quicker of the pair over the last two furlongs by 0.36 seconds, around two lengths.

Fiercely Proud won the feature Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle in a career-best 136 but perhaps the most interesting performance on the card over hurdles came from his stablemate Mondoui’boy in the opening novice event. A 119 timefigure doesn’t suggest he’s within spitting distance of the best novice hurdlers just yet, but considering he was dropping back in trip having bolted up at Ludlow and had finished second to the Timeform 137-rated Shuffle The Deck in his only start in a point in Ireland at the stamina-sapping Borris House (winning time that day was 7:04 compared to 4:42:30 here) he looks one to keep onside considering he ran the last half mile at Ascot almost two and a half seconds faster than Fiercely Proud who was scoring off a BHA mark of 136. He’s Albert Bartlett class on this evidence, if his trainer Ben Pauling (who has demonstrated time and time again over the last few years he has a good line on Irish point form) opts to run him.

Up at Haydock Park where the meeting passed three inspections only for the ground to ride much faster than anticipated, little impressed on the clock, particularly over hurdles. The opening Victor Ludorum Juvenile, a some-time pointer to the Triumph Hurdle, went to Nicky Henderson’s Manlaga in 117 while the three hurdles run over an extended three miles went to Lud’Or (Grade 2 Rendlesham) in 102, Dalston Lad (Grade 2 Albert Bartlett trial for the race of the same name five weeks from now) in 112 and Champagne Chic (Pertemps qualifier) in 96.

As might be inferred, all those races ended up testing finishing speed first and foremost; Manlaga did well considering she had plenty of ground to make up on the leaders in her race and ran much the fastest last half mile on the card over hurdles, while Lud’Or outspeeded Dalston Lad over the final two furlongs and four furlongs in what look substandard renewals of both races. The William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial saw a very bunched finish to a contest that could hardly have been further removed from the usual test of stamina this race provides; the progressive seven-year-old Grand Geste gaining his second course win of the season as he showed a bit too much zip for largely older rivals in a race where the winning timefigure was just 101.

Wincanton’s feature was the BetMGM Kingwell Hurdle and was won by the generally progressive Alexei in a 145 timefigure, the third race in succession in which he has posted either that figure or 144, as he got the better of front-running course specialist Rubaud by a length and a quarter. On the face of it the form looks short of Champion Hurdle quality, but reigning Champion Hurdler Golden Ace won it last year of course with a similar level of performance and connections of the winner probably feel they have little to lose rolling the dice in an open year not least with doubts now surrounding Constitution Hill’s participation in his all-weather ‘pipe-opener’ on Friday evening with the unusually big prize fund (especially for a novice race) unsurprisingly backfiring given it has attracted a bumper entry.

There were only three meetings in Ireland last week and only two of those wee of interest with Limerick’s low-grade fare providing few talking points other than Patrick Mullins’ audacious manoeuvre in the bumper taking his mount onto the all-weather surface alongside the turf track. Best of the timefigures at Gowran on Saturday came from Grimaud (127) in a qualifying race for this year’s Punchestown Festival, winning by ten lengths in 127 and well clear of the third too, posting a career-best effort on the clock by some way. Storm Heart won the Grade 3 Red Mills Hurdle by a length and a half from Workahead in a relatively modest 125, while the Grade 3 novice hurdle over nearly three miles went to Lord Rouge in a lowly 99 in a slow-motion finish. The very slowly run Grade 2 Red Mills Chase went to long odds-on favourite Impaire Et Passe on his return from a ten-month absence and he did well to get up at all given how much he still had to do three out; his stablemate King Alexander took the beginners chase in a much faster time (timefigure still only 86 however) and remains open to improvement over fences.

Timefigures were disappointing on the whole at Punchestown on Sunday too; Soldier In Milan took the beginners chase in 134 (aforementioned Shuffle The Deck back in third under a ride that screamed handicap project) and this big brute of a horse who bypassed hurdles completely after winning his bumper in a very fast time (beat Supreme hope King Rasko Grey) looks on his way to the National Hunt Chase having seen his previous Gowran form over an inadequate trip boosted a day earlier by King Alexander. The listed Sheila Bourke Novice Hurdle went to last year’s Champion Bumper runner-up Heads Up seemingly with an improved performance but the time was slow (84) and he was able to dictate from the front against just three rivals in a first-time hood.

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