Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Classic weekends are usually ones I look forward to, whether in Britain, Ireland and France, with supporting cards of varying quality all contributing to what hopefully turns out to be an enlightening day’s racing.

When a favourite for a Classic ends up starting as short as Minnie Hauk did (2/11) at the Curragh last weekend, obviously that sense of anticipation diminishes somewhat, yet for all she never looked like losing, unlike plenty of odds-on shots at the top level in the past decade or so, I think we still ended up learning something about her and the filly who pushed her hard, and who I’ve written about before in defeat, Wemightakedlongway.

Just going back to that point about beaten odds-on favourites for a minute, since the start of the century 302 have started odds on in Group One contests in either Britain and Ireland yet surprisingly a whopping 115 – well over a third – have got beaten. In that time, ten horses were sent off at odds of 1/5 or shorter in Group One races in Britain, notably Frankel and Baaeed, one more than in Ireland with Minding in 2016 the only horse to have ticked the boxes in both countries.

In a good illustration that it’s folly to consider any horse a good thing in a Group One race no matter how short the odds, three of those 19 horses were turned over – Order Of St George in the 2016 Irish St Leger (set too much to do behind a well-ridden winner in a four-runner race), Inspiral in the 2022 Falmouth (‘ran flat’ in the words of both her jockey and Timeform’s race analyst) and Taghrooda in the 2014 Yorkshire Oaks (beaten by one she reversed form easily with later in the Arc and who hadn’t run anywhere near that level previously or didn’t do subsequently either).

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Concentrating on the Classics, the shortest priced horse overturned this century in Britain was Camelot (2/5) in the 2015 St Leger; had Minnie Hauk been turned over, she’d have been an even shorter-priced loser in Ireland than Six Perfections who was beaten a short head in the Irish 1000 in 2003 when looking an extremely unlucky loser just as she had in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket three weeks previously.

If there was one point in the race Minnie Hauk looked potentially vulnerable it was early in the straight, where Wemightakedlongway went past the front-running Island Hopping (who didn’t look quite so kamikaze out in front with cheekpieces replacing the blinkers she’d worn in the Ribblesdale and Stanerra Stakes) but the runner-up wasn’t able to get away and Minnie Hauk, who’d looked comfortably her superior in the Oaks, gradually asserted and was readily on top at the line.

A winning timefigure of 107 on a weekend where timefigures from the Curragh were harder to settle upon than is even sometimes the case at an always-tricky venue is the middle of those since Timeform started returning timefigures from Ireland in 2015, 9lb below the 116 Snowfall posted in 2021, but regular readers will know sectional upgrades will make the overall time rating look very different if the pace scenario allows and given the acceleration she showed in the straight – she ran the penultimate furlong just 0.12 seconds slower than her stable-mate True Love managed in the Group 2 Railway Stakes over six furlongs earlier in the card – she can easily be credited with a 7lb better performance than Wemightakedlongway despite what a traditional reading of the result might imply.

While Minnie Hauk, who retained her place at the head of the Arc market after this, look set to improve further for a more strongly-run 12 furlongs, as I had after her Pretty Polly effort I think that Wemightakedlongway might be better off dropping back to ten furlongs.

She travelled best of all here and was only beaten as far as she was (sectionals suggest there shouldn’t have been much between her and Whirl) in the Pretty Polly because she was dropped out in last place with too much to do. The Prix de l’Opera (and maybe the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville) looks the race for her and her trainer Joseph O’Brien has already saddled the third twice in it from four previous attempts.

The remainder of Saturday’s Curragh card threw up some interesting future clues. In 2024 the opening maiden went to The Lion In Winter (following wins in it in 2023 by Henry Longfellow and 2000 by subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Mac Swiney) and this time around it went to Aidan O’Brien for the fourth year running with New Zealand who edged out his stable-companion Isaac Newton by a nose with another stable-mate Action back in third.

The winning timefigure wasn’t anything special – just 78 – but in the absence of manually taken sectionals because of unhelpful camera angles, those available from RaceIQ suggest the second and third deserve upgrading by 5lb or 6lb better than the runner-up and seeing as both horses were making their debuts are surely bankers for similar events next time, not least Action who is closely related to dual Derby winner Lambourn.

I’m not sure there was a more impressive winner last week in Ireland than True Love. It wasn’t a strong running of the Railway with just four going to post and Learntodiscover failing by a long chalk to confirm June maiden form here with the runner-up that day, Puerto Rico, but True Love couldn’t have done any more, still to be asked for her effort while the other trio were off the bridle, and then quickening right away to score in a 99 timefigure that could be upgraded to the mid 110s if sectionals nearer to the winning line are used instead of the usually-used three-furlong marker, which boosts even more Gstaad’s claims to being the best two-year-old around bearing in mind he gave her a 7lb beating on time and 2lb beating on sectionals when they met at Navan in May and Gstaad was making his debut.

The Group Two Sapphire Stakes went to Arizona Blaze, a bright spot in an otherwise dull season for the high-spending Amo outfit, the timefigure a decent 116 on the back of an always-close-up and strong-finishing effort, for all runner-up Mgheera didn’t get the best of breaks and third-placed Songhai (in a first-time tongue strap) ran on strongly from too far back having been restrained leaving the stalls and is surely a Group-race winner (at five furlongs) in waiting.

The final Group race on the card, the Group 2 Curragh Cup, went the way of Al Riffa who beat the Queen’s Vase fourth and Irish Derby eighth Shackleton by five lengths in a 104 timefigure. Once again, this race didn’t really develop until after the three-furlong point, undercooking Al Riffa’s superiority if only using that point of reference, and an overall timerating of 117 compared to Shackelton’s 102 is a more accurate reflection of how events unfolded than the figures traditional handicapping methods come up with.

Indeed, this might well be better form than it looks on paper and I suspect the only thing that has prevented Al Riffa being campaigned at a trip he clearly relishes before is the danger of being labelled as a potential jumps stallion. He’d be the one to beat in the Irish St Leger if connections decide to head there.

Sunday’s card wasn’t as interesting but still showcased two Group events, the Group 3 Meadow Court Stakes and the Minstrel Stakes. The former went to One Look who looked much happier back on a soft surface in contrast to the very fast conditions that found her out at Ascot in the Duke Of Cambridge, scoring comfortably by a length from Azada in a 91 timefigure.

Diego Velazquez scored from a multitude of outsiders in the latter headed by the year-younger East Hampton who’d only finished fifth in a Listed race last time. The form has a muddling look to it with one of the other runners appearing to step up noticeably on previous form and neither the overall timefigure (97) nor sectional upgrade (low) graft much substance on to the form.

Haggas colt provides Newmarket fireworks

Across at Newbury their ‘Super Sprint’ meeting failed to record one winning timefigure over 100 with the winner of the Weatherbys sponsored headline race Anthelia managing only a lowly 83. Royal Dubai (98) in the Listed Steventon Stakes posted the highest figure across the two-day meeting, Timeform’s 17lb sectional upgrade from four furlongs elevating that rating to 115, while Rage Of Bamby (also 98) in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes and Wise Approach (96) in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes were the only other winners to get above 95.

Better figures were recorded up at Hamilton Park where Sallaal posted a 108 in a well-contested handicap and Nahraan managed 103 in the Listed Glasgow Stakes. The former is probably worth another 2lb or so at the end of a strongly-run race where the finish was very slow yet despite that he was always well positioned and took up the running over two furlongs out, while the latter can be awarded another 3lb in a contest where the very well-bred Tiernan pinned his colours to the mast of ‘best maiden in training’ with a strong finish that saw him earn a bigger upgrade than the smart pair that beat him narrowly.

Runner-up behind Nahraan was the progressive Arabian Force and his trainer William Haggas was also responsible for Friday’s highly-promising wide-margin (14 lengths, officially) Newmarket winner Scoville.

Most of the field looked very limited beforehand, so it’s perhaps not surprising that the son of Too Darn Hot, who’d run to a very high level when winning at Windsor on his debut and is out of the Group One winner (at around a mile and a quarter) Ribbons, won by as far as he did in view of his breeding .

Timefigures haven’t always been as straightforward to return as one would expect them to be at Newmarket this season given parts (as well as sides) of the track haven’t always been equally consistent, but the 107 I ended up giving him (upgrade was 2lb, taking that overall rating to 109) is probably a bare minimum figure.

His win brought back memories of the aforementioned Baaeed who also won a novice by a wide margin under a penalty on the July Course as a three-year-old on just his second start back in 2020 when credited with a 111 timefigure. Scoville doesn’t hold any big-race entries yet but will be surely be contesting one by the end of the season.

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