Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

So, the second inter-generational contest of the year in Britain and Ireland at the very highest level over middle distances, the Coral Eclipse at Sandown Park, ended up going the same way as the first, the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh on Irish Derby weekend, with a win for one of the three-year-olds.

As in the Pretty Polly too, it was one of the older horses who started favourite at Sandown, Ombudsman, fresh from his victory in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, but like Kalpana couldn’t contain a younger rival, Delacroix in this instance, who, as his stablemate Whirl had done in the Pretty Polly, was dropping back in distance having contested one of the Epsom Classics.

History suggests that Ombudsman’s defeat in the Eclipse shouldn’t have been unexpected; after all only one of the six previous winners of the Prince Of Wales’s who had gone on to take in the Eclipse in the same year this century had followed up and that was Al Kazeem in 2013 when there had been only one three-year-old representative, Mars, who went into the race having been unplaced in both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby before finishing third in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

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One of the reasons for that seemingly modest record might be the quick turnaround between the two races, which in Ombudsman’s case was just 17 days and came on the back of a career-best effort at Ascot in a race run at an unrelenting gallop throughout – his winning timefigure was 122 – but despite that was won with a final-furlong finishing speed of 103.4%, higher than his finishing speeds from two furlongs out and three furlongs out.

Whether Ombudsman is dependent upon an end-to-end gallop to show his best form, or whether that Ascot run just took the edge off him a little, will presumably come out in the wash, but the Eclipse was a more sedate affair, with the winning timefigure an ordinary 101 after a tactical first half mile, and a final-furlong finishing speed that came in at 102.1%.

Unlike at Ascot, where he had been sat out the back and let the race leaders come back to him, his rider William Buick who preferred him over 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court was more proactive here in the early stages as French raider Sosie and Hotazhell steadied the pace, moving Ombudsman up to a position much closer to the leaders than he had been at Ascot.

Other than failing to see off the impressive finishing burst from Delacroix, Buick arguably did everything he could do to win the race and though Ombudsman ran a little below his Ascot form, he lost nothing in defeat and, at least at a mile-and-a-quarter, remains the best older horse in training in Europe (until we see Economics again) for all the claims of Jan Brughuel and Calandagan would be even stronger as I see it at a mile-and-a-half.

As for Delacroix, the beaten Derby favourite can now boast a CV that includes the only defeat this season of dual Derby winner Lambourn. Exactly what happened to him at Epsom in the early stages remains unclear, but he wasn’t given anything like a hard time once his stable-companion had the race sewn up and in view of the finishing speed he showed at Sandown, and had earlier shown from the front in ready wins in the Ballysax Stakes and the Derby Trial at Leopardstown, perhaps getting him to stretch out to a mile-and-a-half was always going to be a difficult ask.

Timeform’s updated sectional model (which is still internal and undergoing trialling) had him coming out a 3lb better horse than the not-seen-since Purview in the Derby Trial and a 12lb better horse than Tennessee Stud over and above what a traditional handicapping models might allow, which makes the former one to keep on side when he does finally reappear and Delacroix a nominal ‘collateral’ 126 through Tennessee Stud who is currently rated 114 after his in-frame finishes in the Derby and Irish Derby.

As it was, Delacroix was awarded a performance rating of 124 at Sandown, 2lb lower than Ombudsman was given after weight for age is taken into account, but once all his finishing sectionals from three furlongs out are accounted for, he emerges arguably the best horse at the weights on the day by 3lb or 4lb. No surprise that Ryan Moore was reported to have said afterwards that he believes Delacroix is a miler come mile-and-a-quarter performer and a rematch in the Juddmonte International is something to relish, not least if Field Of Gold turns up and Ombudsman’s connections decide they need to ensure a much more strongly run affair than they were presented with here.

As for the others, 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court got worked up, if not as much as he had in the St James Palace Stakes, but was able to harness his energies more efficiently than he had that day, moving up alongside Ombudsman early but trapped in pocket all the way up the straight and never able to open up properly until very late on, snatching third.

Camille Pissarro ran his best race yet, briefly second at one point after being produced from the rear, and the form of his French Derby win arguably looks a bit better now making the next appearances of runner-up Cualifiicar and fifth-placed Azimpour very much ones to look forward to, with at least one of those hopefully coming in next Sunday’s Grand Prix de Paris where the Derby fourth New Grounds might also make an appearance.

Hotazhell (who’d beaten Delacroix in the Futurity last October) ran as well as could have been expected considering the grip he took early on, but 2024 Arc fourth Sosie struggled on the fastest ground he’s encountered and might have problems fulfilling his potential if connections persist with him at this trip, at least away from France.

No fireworks elsewhere at Sandown

It's fair to say there weren’t any timefigure fireworks at the remainder of the Eclipse meeting, though Rumstar in the Coral Charge and Windlord in the Gala Stakes did return some decent numbers.

Timefigures recorded at race meetings where there is only one race on the straight course, or separate sprint course, are never the easiest to settle upon, but conditions looked fairly even across all of the Esher track on Saturday and a 113 timefigure is a career best by 2lb and consolation for being drawn on the ‘wrong’ side in the King Charles II Stakes at Ascot, the result incidentally pretty much mirroring the result of the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket in May when Rumstar had She’s Quality back in second too when the winning timefigure was 110.

Windlord has been sacrificed for pace making duties in both the Irish 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes on his last two starts, but he’s a decent colt in his own right who chased home Hotazhell and Tennessee Stud in the Beresford Stakes last year and the drop back into Listed company as well getting a lead combined to enable him to get his head back in front, albeit by the narrowest of margins against a quintet of older horses in a career-best 109.

His stablemate Blue Bolt, who’d gone five lengths clear before being eased yet still won in a very fast time at Newbury on her previous outing, didn’t need to run to that level on the clock to win the listed Coral Distaff, just 91 on this occasion albeit with a bit in hand, while the two other listed races at the meeting went to the two-year-old Staya in 89 and old-timer Coltrane in a very leisurely 36 as he got the better of Al Nayyir in a race that turned into a dash from three furlongs out.

Up at Haydock Park, the bet365 Lancashire Oaks also saw just four runners and unsurprisingly descended into something of a mad dash for home too, with clear form picks Estrange and Scenic having so much in hand of their rivals it enabled them to play out their own game of cat and mouse.

Estrange, who’d put herself forward as an Arc possible when winning the Pinnacle Stakes here five weeks earlier, was sent off long odds on but Scenic is no mug when a race turns into a sprint, possessed of a fair turn of foot herself, and Estrange had to work hard to keep her at bay by a neck in a modest 66 timefigure. She’ll look a much better filly given slower ground, stronger gallop and a lead for longer, so in view of the speed she showed here, the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc weekend would be a realistic alternative to the Arc itself.

Cautious approach over Daytona figure

There was some talk around over the weekend about the 2026 Derby prospects of Daytona, who won the listed Pat Smullen Stakes over a mile at Naas in a timefigure I finally settled upon as 106.

The race was well run, and after running green, he strode clear to win by three-and-a-quarter lengths from a horse North Coast who had himself won by five-and-a-half lengths at Down Royal on his previous start, while having another previous winner Green Soul another four-and-a-half lengths back in fourth. That puts him joint-third highest in the league table of best two-year-old timefigures this season dominated by his own stable (Charles Darwin, Gstaad, Beautify and True Love are all above the highest achieved by a runner from another stable, Karl Burke’s Venetian Sun).

That said, timefigures recorded by two-year-olds early in the season over seven furlongs and a mile are not easy to settle upon because of the dominant influence weight-for-age has upon the figures when comparing times against those posted by older horses of more established merit, not least because these races are getting earlier in the year.

Back in 2000, for example, the first seven-furlong race for juveniles in Britain didn’t take place until the middle of June and it was only in 2019 that two-year-old races over seven furlongs started to become common place in May; by contrast, Ireland, which shares the same Timeform weight-for-age scale as Britain, was running juvenile races over seven furlongs in the middle of May back in 2000, four weeks before the same races took place in Britain, and even staged one as early as May 2nd in 2010.

The situation is little different over a mile – until 2024 it hasn’t been until August that the first two-year-old races over a mile have taken place while Ireland have been running them regularly in June and had one as early as June 6th in 2010.

Daytona’s contest was the third there over the distance already this season, and though I’ve no doubt he’s a good prospect, insufficient data as to exactly what the ‘correct’ weight-for-age scale adjustment should be so early in the year makes me slightly more cautious about what he has achieved than some others. Timeform last changed its weight-for-age scale back in 2016, but an investigation is currently under way as to whether more changes are needed as the race programme among other things constantly evolves.

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