Lambourn ran a promising race at Chester with the Derby in mind

Check out Graeme North's timefigure analysis

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Tue July 01, 2025 · 6M ago

Our timefigure expert Graeme North looks back at the key action from the Curragh, Newcastle and York in his latest column.

So, Lambourn became the 20th horse to complete the Derby/Irish Derby double and the eighth this century after Sinndar, Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot, Australia, Harzand and Auguste Rodin.

His trainer Aidan O’Brien supposedly commented afterwards that he might be a King George or an Arc type - as you would hope about a horse that has just won two of the premier middle-distance Classics - and while he was reported to have also observed that Lambourn had inherited many of the same traits as his sire Australia, idleness being one of them, I’m more inclined for now to think, in terms of achievement, he more closely resembles Harzand than any of those other dual winners.

On plenty of occasions this century, the Irish Derby has been little more than a lap of honour for the horse who won at Epsom – after all, Sinndar won by eight lengths, Galileo by four, High Chapparral by three-and-a-half, Australia by two-and-a-half and Camelot by two.

Contrastingly, the only dual winners to have followed up by less than a length at the Curragh are Harzand and Lambourn, and in contrast to all other dual winners other than Camelot, whose Irish Derby win was achieved in unseasonably stamina-sapping conditions with the third horse beaten a very long way, both scored at the Curragh by a smaller margin than they had at Epsom, notably so in Lambourn’s case with his Curragh winning margin reduced to three-quarters-of a-length from three-and-three quarters.

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The similarities with Harzand don’t end there. Timeform’s report on the Irish Derby in 2016 noted that while Harzand didn’t need to improve to confirm his superiority over Idaho, who finished third behind him at Epsom – echoes of Lambourn’s relationship with Lazy Griff - his battling qualities were once again on show as he pulled out extra in the final furlong; not only that, back in third that day was a horse (Stellar Mass) who on his previous start had contested a handicap, in his case the Ulster Derby at Down Royal which he’d won off an official mark of 92, coincidentally the same mark 2025 Curragh runner-up Serious Contender had been beaten off at Royal Ascot.

As regular readers of this column will know, there was no bigger flag-bearer for Lambourn before the Derby than me, but it increasingly looks like he was an ordinary winner of a race that contained a lot of doubtful stayers and took full advantage of an uncontested lead in front probably helped to some degree by the belief that he was in there to help force the pace for stablemate and race favourite Delacroix.

A 114 timefigure at Epsom is down there among the lower end of Derby winners this century, but a 115 at the Curragh suggests he’s pegged about right on the clock for now and that level wouldn’t be good enough to get the better of what looks to me a decent bunch of older horses in some of the stiffer tasks he will face ahead.

Harzand was beaten in both his races after the Irish Derby, and convincingly too, barely even beating his own pacemaker in the Arc, and though Stellar Mass won a Group 3 race two starts afterwards, his only subsequent win in 21 attempts came at the racing hotbed of Zurich.

What that means for his 2025 lookalike Serious Contender remains to be seen, but a 114 timefigure suggests he ought to be up to winning a Group race or two. As for the well-named Lazy Griff, connections will be hoping he doesn’t suffer the same fate that befell Idaho in his St Leger bid, unseating his rider early in the straight, but whatever he does at Doncaster given his size, like Idaho, I suspect his future is all about next year. The Gordon Stakes and Great Voltigeur ought to be attractive targets along the way, races that are reportedly tempting connections of Merchant who beat Serious Contender with ease at Ascot, but it seems a German Group 1 is under consideration too.

Whatever, it wouldn’t surprise me if the first thing William Buick told connections in the debrief was to stick some headgear on him to get him to focus more, and it would be at the back of my mind, too, that neither of the two other horses besides Idaho this century who were placed in both the Derby and Irish Derby and who went on to the St Leger, Galileo Gold in 2016 and Storm The Stars in 2018, managed to even improve their form at Doncaster, let alone win. They looked below the best of their age at that trip as they had at a mile-and-a-half. Of the Curragh also-rans, Pride Of Arras ran another shocker, looking a shadow of the horse who dashed clear in the Dante, acknowledging that race could hardly have worked out worse.

The best timefigure of the rather bloated Irish Derby meeting came from Trustyourinstinct who posted a 117 when winning the Group 3 International Stakes by three-and-a-quarter lengths from Layfayette. The result makes plenty of sense from a form perspective, with all the first four running at or close to their pre-race ratings, and that 117 was a small improvement on the 115 he’d run when winning the Listed Orby Stakes over an extra two furlongs at the track the previous month, suggesting he’s still improving at the age of five.

The top performance on form ratings, albeit some way off the best on time, came in the Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes from the Betfred Oaks runner-up Whirl. The betting had this pretty much as a two-horse race between her and last season’s Champions Fillies Mares winner Kalpana, and that’s how it panned as soon as Ryan Moore gunned Whirl to the front and set the tempo with Kalpana close behind.

Any expectation from those in behind that Whirl would set a searching gallop dropping back two furlongs in trip proved wide of the mark, as after steadying the pace mid race and being joined, and even headed briefly, at the furlong pole, she rallied strongly as one would expect and was a length-and-a-quarter up at the line.

A 103 timefigure is testament to the steady middle section, and with that in mind, I was quite taken with the performance of fourth-placed Wemightakedlongway. She was fourth in the Oaks when never quite able to get to grips with Whirl and Minnie Hauk but still matching 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower all the way down the straight, but she was ridden in contrasting fashion here and that was her downfall as she ended up too far back with too much to do.

An 11.92 final furlong was easily the fastest in the race, however, and together with her penultimate furlong arguably entitles her to be a rated right behind Whirl. Out of a No Nay Never mare, she shaped to me as if she has a big race in her kept to this trip, perhaps at the Arc meeting.

Curragh two-year-old review

So far as the juveniles are concerned, the Curragh weekend kicked off with a ‘disappointing’ performance by the opening winner, Learntodiscover, or at least that was how his trainer Ger Lyons described it for all many would be happy with a defeat of an Aidan O’Brien trained hotpot in a 90 timefigure.

The beaten trainer has run plenty of his best juveniles in the following fillies maiden – Lake Victoria and Ylang Ylang have been his last two winners - but there wasn’t much to get excited about on time so far as his latest winner Composing is concerned with an ordinary 76 not raised much by her own sectional upgrades and if there is a horse to take out of the race it might be Lyons’ Wootton Bassett newcomer Justiciar back in third who took some time to get going but flew through late for the biggest sectional upgrade.

Saturday’s card threw up a potentially smart O’Brien juvenile in the form of Beautify, who left her Curragh debut behind when landing the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes in a 106 timefigure by two lengths from Lady Iman who looked all over the winner and hit 1.61 in running but ended up looking something of a tame finisher.

The Group 3 Anglesey Stakes over an extra 63 yards – why? – went to another Lyons inmate, Suzie Songs, who was following up her quite taking debut Cork win with a hard-fought success over the long odds on Flushing Meadows who looked a bit short of pace in a race not run at an end-to-end gallop (timefigure 87) and already looks in need of seven furlongs.

If there was a potentially high-class two-year-old colt on show on the day, however, it probably wasn’t Flushing Meadows but his stablemate Dorset who made a winning debut in the opening seven-furlong maiden, a race the stable won with City Of Troy two years ago. Timeform’s manually-taken sectionals suggest he’s worth a 15lb upgrade over his 88 timefigure, taking him to 103 on overall timeratings, but the more detailed data detailing his penultimate and final-furlong data available from RaceIQ suggest he could be as high as 112 and I imagine he’ll make his next appearance in a Group race.

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Across at Newcastle, the feature Northumberland Plate and its little brother, the Northumberland Vase, were run in contrasting fashion with the former contested at a sound gallop (timefigure 99) and the latter disputed at a crawl (47).

Several years ago, the Plate winner Spirit Mixer wouldn’t have even got into the race but like a lot of high-end handicaps run at Newcastle these days it’s a shadow of its former self and for the third year running there were just two horses in the field with an official rating higher than 100 compared to 14 in 2018 and 12 in 2019. Second in this race in 2022, Spirit Mixer cut little ice last year, but for all this was a narrow career best on the clock, he’s typically struggled off the marks he will have to contend with on his next few starts.

The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes was run in a time just 0.3 seconds faster than the opening handicap, and looks a muddling affair with the winning timefigure coming out at just 105, but in his defence the winner Diligent Harry at least deserves a bit of credit for hanging on after cutting out a strong gallop, so continuing Saffie Osborne’s good recent run in a season that has seen her well down on her usual strike rate but oddly well in front of previous seasons on her rides run-to-form metric.

It goes against the grain of this column a little bit suggesting a horse to follow in his next couple of races who was sent off at 4/6 on his handicap debut at York on Saturday but Archivist is just one of several horses who have put themselves forward multiple times as being of significant sectional interest on the new upgrade model currently in testing at Timeform, and he did so again here.

An overall 84 timefigure isn’t spectacular but the more granular finishing data freely available suggest that he deserves at least a 7lb higher upgrade than anything else in the race and that potentially makes him a 110 horse on what he has achieved here.

Traditional handicapping methods might suggest that’s high on the back of this win off a mark of 90, but Serious Contender nearly landed a Derby ten days after being beaten off a mark of 92, and given he is by Dubawi out of a Timeform 108-rated mare by Galileo, he’s got the pedigree to go with his emerging ability. He looks Group class, and he’s bound to be placed to advantage at that level by his top-class trainer.

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Curragh two-year-old review

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