Matt Brocklebank is back with a look at some of the most attractive betting races at Newbury and Ripon this Saturday, including the Great St Wilfrid.
Value Bet tips: Saturday August 14
1pt win Starshiba in 2.55 Newbury at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Cooperation in 3.10 Ripon at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Nando Parrado in 3.30 Newbury at 66/1 (bet365)
1pt win Embour in 3.45 Ripon at 20/1 (bet365)
Nando's on the wagering menu?
Newbury’s BetVictor Hungerford Stakes hasn’t been much of a race for upsets in recent seasons with only three of the past 10 winners returning double-figure SPs, but one of those was the Clive Cox-trained Lethal Force at 25/1 and the same trainer might be able to pull another rabbit out of his hat on Saturday.
This year’s likely longshot is NANDO PARRADO, who is the outsider of the field here having trailed in last of the 18 horses who went to post for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. I’m content to put a line through that display, however, as Cox’s yard was woefully out of sorts at the time (summed up by a strike-rate of 2-49 during the month of June), something which has taken a marked turn for the better in recent weeks including 13 winners throughout July and a very respectable 19% hit-rate (5-26) so far this month.
Nando Parrado may purely be remembered as the 150/1 winner of last summer’s Coventry Stakes but his three starts this year leave me wanting to see a little more before he can be totally ruled out of races of this calibre, and at the prices available I can’t resist paying to find out if the fire can be swiftly rekindled.
First time up this term he was fourth behind Chindit in the Greenham over this course and distance and while unable to build on what looked a relatively encouraging effort at the time, he was asked to stretch out to a mile in the Heron Stakes at Sandown subsequently. On the night he shaped pretty well for much of the contest, simply failing to see out the new trip on such a demanding track and ultimately weakening.
Then came the Jersey run which just looked far too bad to be true, especially considering the testing ground conditions which should arguably have played more to his strengths than others.
Cox has obviously been keen to freshen him up following a 56-day break and it looks significant the trainer doesn’t appear to have lost faith in him at all, highlighted by the horse’s other potential Group Two engagements at York and Doncaster, on top of Group One sprint entries at Haydock and Ascot on Champions Day.
Cox’s aforementioned Lethal Force came to the Hungerford with a big point to prove after being turned over at skinny odds in a lesser race, before going on to prove himself a top-class sprinter, and like Lethal Force, Nando Parrado looks to bounce back wearing blinkers for the first time this weekend.
His Group One-placed efforts in France after surprisingly landing the Coventry last year are hardly bombproof pieces of juvenile form, admittedly, but they at least prove the Ascot triumph wasn’t a complete flash in the pan and if he’s able to run to anything like the mark of 111 which he possessed at the start of 2021, he should be right there with Al Suhail (111) and Danyah (112) who head the market.
Motakhayyel (117) is the highest-rated of the lot but he’s 0-3 in Listed/Group company, his most impressive wins to date coming in big-field handicaps, so looks one to take on at the prices in this scenario.
Star to shine bright in handicap
I’m not in love with the idea of taking on Hukum at even money in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes and the other race I’m drawn to at Newbury is the BetVictor Handicap over seven furlongs, in which three-year-olds Aratus – trained by Cox – and Ed Walker’s course and distance winner Sunset Bay are going to be really popular.
William Haggas’s Ajyaall may yet usurp the pair of them at the top of the betting as he has to remain of serious interest but I’m giving another chance to fellow four-year-old STARSHIBA.
He’s improved this season but hasn’t been rewarded yet and I thought he ran miles better than the bare result in the hugely competitive International Stakes (Handicap) at Ascot last month. Wearing cheekpieces for the first time, he raced freely early on and looked like he’d be totally swallowed up by the whole field at one point before sticking on to be ninth, just three places behind the aforementioned Motakhayyel, who runs in the day’s feature.
Starshiba had – not for the first time in his career – found the mile a shade too far at Salisbury at the end of June but that came on the back of an agonising near-miss at Goodwood when splitting Perotto and Pistoletto in a photo finish. He had subsequent Glorious Goodwood winner Magical Wish (reopposes) back in sixth that day and he’s actually 1lb better off on revised terms having been eased 2lb to a mark of 85 for the latest run at Ascot.
That mark is just 3lb higher than when winning with something to spare at Kempton in January and I’m convinced the well-bred son of Acclamation – he’s a half-brother to Barshiba, Dash Of Spice, Dashing Star and Doctor Dash – has unfinished business over this sort of trip on turf.
It is hoped he settles much better with the cheekpieces retained on this occasion.
Embour the one in Ripon feature
The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the big betting heat at Ripon and EMBOUR appeals at the prices.
He’s facing a pretty quick turnaround having run just last Friday but that’s a positive, if anything, for this horse, who evidently thrives on being kept on the go. Granted, he has won fresh too, defying a 152-day break to make a winning start to his current campaign at Redcar in early April, but all six wins for previous trainer Richard Hannon came fairly close to a recent run and he’s largely been running to a very decent level as a six-year-old this time around.
In spite of this, he’s now slipped to his lowest mark since April 2019 and the win earlier this season came from 3lb higher than the perch of 87 from which he competes this weekend.
Ripon’s sprint handicaps can be as competitive as anywhere else in the north and it’s no surprise to see Tim Easterby has six with live chances. However, Embour’s trainer Ruth Carr has tended to punch well above her weight at this course in particular, the likes of Pipers Note, Mark’s Choice and San Cassiano contributing to a +60.96 level-stakes profit if following all of Carr’s horses here over the years.
This race looks to have been the plan for Embour for a while now and he’s seemingly got a nice draw in stall 13 next door to one of the more likely pace-setters in Abate.
He’s yet to produce anything too threatening in the cheekpieces but has only worn them the last twice, struggling on soft ground at Goodwood prior to finding the fast five furlongs a bit too sharp for him at Musselburgh last week when ending up fourth to Mokaatil after having to challenge more towards the centre of the track than those who dominated the finish.
Embour was only beaten a length and a quarter and reversing the form with Ian Williams’ runner on 4lb better terms back up to six furlongs looks a distinct possibility.
Fahey youngster to get back on track
Richard Fahey’s three-year-old COOPERATION is the one to be on in the St Wilfrid’s consolation race – the William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap.
He’s got to be excused a lifeless effort when inexplicably hanging at Doncaster a fortnight ago but he’d have been a pretty warm order for this were he coming straight here from the course and distance win on July 5.
That was his second career success, both of which have been achieved in much smaller fields than the one he faces now, but that’s circumstantial rather than anything too concerning as he ran a very good race when seventh – beaten under three lengths – in the five-furlong handicap for three-year-olds at Royal Ascot in June.
He’s generally been on the rise since being gelded this year and while Doncaster was a clear backward step, a return to Ripon on drying ground (good to firm when he opened his account at Hamilton) can be a catalyst for him resuming on that upward trajectory.
Published at 1600 BST on 13/08/21