The much-anticipated November Meeting kicks off at Cheltenham on Friday and our value-seeker is on hand with three recommendations.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over in June 2020 would have produced 123pts profit, while he's more than 30pts up for the year.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, from 3pm before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App at 4pm.
Value Bet tips: Friday, November 17
0.5pts e.w. High Stakes in 1.10 Cheltenham at 33/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Gold Des Bois in 1.45 Cheltenham at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Diesel D’Allier in 2.55 Cheltenham at 8/1 (General)
Jardine to strike Cheltenham Gold
The final two days of Cheltenham’s November Meeting look set to be run in pretty miserable conditions with more rain in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, but there certainly won’t be any hiding place as far as the ground is concerned on Friday either after more than 50mm of rainfall reported since the last meeting at Prestbury Park.
The opening afternoon is a touch frustrating from a terrestrial TV perspective as we’ve a cross country chase, a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle featuring a very short-priced favourite, and a small-field Arkle trial taking up three of the four ITV4 slots, but on the plus side the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase looks a decent betting heat.
There are two dead interesting ones towards the head of the market that have already had a run this year and they are Do Your Job, who can surely be marked up for his comeback effort in what turned out to be a farce of an Old Roan (bypassed fences in the straight), and Triple Trade, who came from a long way back to finish second over the same course and distance (good ground) at the Showcase Meeting here last month.
Do Your Job has been dropped 2lb and tops the weights for this 0-150 handicap running off 140, which highlights how much more competitive the race could and should be in theory, while the progressive Triple Trade – representing an in-form trainer in Joe Tizzard – has only gone up 1lb for his comeback which does look potentially quite generous, especially as he’ll be happier on this week’s conditions, given he won over hurdles on heavy at Lingfield in his youth.
That pair could still be a shade vulnerable to something with a bit more natural pace and the blindingly obvious one is Dan Skelton’s strong-travelling Calico, who was mixing with good horses last season and actually gave Jonbon a bit of a fright at Warwick before winning a nice race at Doncaster and then signing off with a fall – back in top-class company in a race won by Jonbon – at Aintree in April.
He’s only 2lb higher than for the Town Moor triumph and is another who will handle the testing going perfectly well.
Calico is just a fraction too short for me, though, and the same applies to Ballybreeze, who gets in at the foot of the weights here as the official assessor couldn’t touch his mark in spite of how well he appeared to be going before tipping up three from home at Market Rasen in April.
The fact Ballybreeze was 5/4 favourite there tells its own story and Sam Drinkwater’s seven-year-old will win more races, but at the odds I’ll take a chance on GOLD DES BOIS, who looks to be running himself into a good bit of form following a couple of efforts at Kelso this term.
He was third to the classy Tommy’s Oscar first time back, which appeared to be needed, but he clearly bumped into one (another one!) of Lucinda Russell’s at Kelso last time out, going down just over three lengths when second to Bollingerandkrug.
The winner has gone in again since and has been put up 10lb in total since beating Gold Des Bois, so Iain Jardine’s horse doesn’t look badly in off the same mark here, especially as he was a fair fourth in the same Cheltenham race off a 7lb higher perch 12 months ago.
He goes on any ground, is a safe and consistent jumper in the main and I like the booking of Harry Cobden, who has yet to ride a loser for the stable – albeit from a sample size of just two.
Outsider fancied, but keep stakes low
Jockey Lilly Pinchin has yet to ride for Warren Greatrex but following her blind at Cheltenham over the years would have produced a healthy profit and nine of her 19 rides at the course so far have finished inside the first four (three winners).
With that in mind, I’ll have a small each-way nibble at HIGH STAKES in the (non-ITV) opening Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle.
This horse has clearly been a tricky one to train and he’s very lightly raced for his age, though his form figures over hurdles of 2213 when completing give an indication of his ability. The victory was a pretty impressive one when signing off in May 2022 but he was well below that level on his comeback last season before the switch to fences didn’t go at all to plan.
There was, however, just a touch more promise in his final run of the last campaign, despite finishing seventh of 12 at Hereford, and he’s been given a serious chance by the handicapper after dropping to a career-low mark of 117 ahead of his latest comeback.
Greatrex sprung a surprise with a 125/1 winner at Lingfield earlier this week and High Stakes coming back in from the cold with a huge run doesn’t look out the question by any means. He’s often on the sharp end which isn’t a bad thing on Cheltenham’s Old Course and the ground looks in his favour too.
Diesel powered up for better showing
I probably did the aforementioned Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase a bit of a disservice and have warmed to the idea of opposing both Galvin and Delta Work, though the latter obviously commands a huge amount of respect given the underfoot conditions and the fact he should now be race-fit after a spin around Punchestown.
It’s not exactly going to be his big target, though, which it very much is for one or two others who also get lumps of weight from the Gordon Elliott-trained pair. In the case of DIESEL D’ALLIER, he receives the thick end of two stone from the big two which should bring him right into the equation if able to reproduce anything like his best form.
That’s got to be in question, clearly, and he was well beaten here in January before being pulled-up at the Festival in March, but trainer Richard Bandey was really struggling for any consistency at the time and there are more positive signs in that regard recently.
Bandey has sent out 10 runners in November so far and while only one has won, he’s had two seconds, two thirds and a fourth as well, so most of the yard’s representatives appear to be running right up to scratch and Diesel D’Allier is going to be a good deal sharper for his comeback run over a trip well short of this in a novices’ hurdle at Worcester last month.
He wasn't disgraced by any means there, despite finishing fourth of the seven runners, and it was a run he can hopefully build on coming back to the scene of some of his best days, notably a 2019 win in this race and a 2021 victory in the December contest when defying a mark of 137.
He’s down to 135 now and is the last one to sneak into this off their proper mark, the six horses below him all forced to compete from out of the weights.
Published at 1600 BST on 16/11/23
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