Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on Saturday.
250 years of the St Leger – but the same old result?
There's been a lot of talk about the Betfred St Leger (15:35) having lost a lot of its lustre in recent times – and that may well be the case – but it still deserves respect. The race, which celebrates its 250-year anniversary on Saturday, is the oldest of Britain's five Classic races and its distance tests a different asset – stamina – than those races earlier in the calendar year.
Normally, that is.
Because this year's Derby was run on unseasonably testing ground, playing to the strengths of Christmas Day who kept on going when others were – in general – crying enough.
The pick of the Aidan O'Brien battalion as his trainer seeks a 10th win in the race, Christmas Day tops Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings despite finishing behind stablemate Pierre Bonnard in the Great Voltigeur at York. The latter was receiving weight on that occasion, whereas the general consensus was that Christmas Day was carrying a bit of it after two months off.
Interestingly, just three in the lineup have the Timeform 'small p' at this stage of the season, with the Andrew Balding-trained Hatteen joining the Joseph O'Brien pair of Highwayman and Enceladus (who wears first-time cheekpieces).
Both O'Brien horses have progressed throughout the season, the latter being a real gamble for this race in recent weeks, and will offer stiff resistance, but I'm sticking with Christmas Day who gave Ronan Whelan his biggest winner in June and he can give him another one here.
Stars on show at Leopardstown
There's an awful lot to get excited about on Town Moor on Saturday, notably Desert Castle's bid to emulate stablemate Musical Times who was Thursday's star attraction, but the card at Leopardstown is something else.
Kicking off the two-day Irish Champions Festival with a bang, the upgraded (and one-furlong extended) HKJC World Pool Golden Fleece Stakes (14:45) now one of three Groups 1s on the card.
Nine of the 10 runners have a Timeform 'small p' attached to their rating, making this potentially a very trappy race, however I think the market is currently underestimating Green Dreamer who tops weight-adjusted ratings and looks sure to relish the step back up in trip. His form is working out well, too.
However, the betting has provided some good clues in the past.
Aidan O'Brien has won four of the last seven renewals, with three of those sent off heavily odds-on.
All four went on to win Group 1s the following season, with two – Auguste Rodin (2022) and Benvenuto Cellini (2025) - winning a Derby (or two).
Is the Ryan Moore-ridden favourite Darkness Falls, a seven-length winner at the Curragh last month, the next off the production line?
Will any of the big names reverse recent form?
Clearly this is a big weekend for Irish racing, with plans made by trainers in advance, but one of the most solid favourites on the card appears – to my eyes at least – to be the English raider Blue Bolt in the Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes (15:55).
The Andrew Balding-trained mare has been aimed at this race for a long time, is 3 lb clear of Precise – who she has already beaten fair and square twice this season on worse terms – and looks to have ideal ground conditions once more with the rain staying away.
Just over an hour later, the same Balding/Juddmonte axis will be hoping for more Group 1 success in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (17:00) as Juddmonte International winner Item locks horns once more with Almaqam and Constitution River.
This race - which is 50 years old this year - feels less clear-cut, as Timeform weight-adjusted ratings suggests.
Item 134p
Almaqam 133
Constitution River 133
Can Item cope with this Plan B? Was this Plan A for Almaqam that became Plan B after the ground came up suitable at York? Will Constitution River handle this occasion better than he did at York?
I think the last question is the key one. At York, horses have to walk a long way across the Knavesmire from the stables even before they reach the racecourse which often exacerbates any nervous tendencies.
Only six horses – amongst them Giant's Causeway (2000) and Sea The Stars (2009) - have done the International/Irish Champion double, the most recent being Roaring Lion in 2018. Will we be talking about Item – whose owners are yet to win this race (Famous Name, Twice Over, Xaar, Damister, General Holme all third) -in the same breath?
I don't know the answers to any of those questions. But I'm certainly excited to find out the answers.
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