Timefigure analysis of recent action including Mystical Power, Grey Dawning and Banbridge

Straight to Cheltenham

It’s a sorry state the sport over jumps finds itself in when the biggest talking point of last week was not events on the track but what might (and did) manifest itself off it, yet another drama involving Constitution Hill – remember him? – that came to a not entirely unpredictable conclusion with a carefully worded statement from trainer Nicky Henderson ruling him out of the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, reportedly because of a bad scope.

‘Write a sad story using only 3 words’ was a thread that caught my eye on social media to which an acquaintance of mine, @carvillshill, pointedly replied ‘Straight to Cheltenham’. Fortunately, there was plenty of good action last week from those keen to race after an uninteresting prior week, starting off with the rearranged Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle that has been such a rich source of Festival winners in recent years.

Unsurprisingly, the Lawlor’s is a contest that Willie Mullins has dominated in recent years, having won the race seven times between 2009 and 2023, and he was represented by a strong hand once again, saddling four of the seven runners including the favourite Ile Atlantique who has having his first race since blowing away a big field in a maiden hurdle at Gowran Park in November.

The form of that race had been made to look better by the efforts of the placed horse subsequently, but he was up against a rival Firefox, who’d beaten him when the pair had clashed in a bumper at Fairyhouse last Easter and had beaten the current Ballymore favourite Ballyburn in the interim, as well as the well-regarded Henry de Bromhead representative An Tobar.

In the event, it wasn’t any of those rivals who got the better of him but one of his lesser-considered stablemates Readin Tommy Wrong who hadn’t pulled up any trees in two bumper wins but had beaten a couple of next-time-out winners in a maiden at Cork in November.

As I saw it there didn’t appear to be any excuses for Ile Atlantique, other than perhaps the ground being not as testing as it had been at Gowran after a spell of dry weather in Ireland, or for any of the other runners either come to that with Firefox running as if he wasn’t at the top of his game (his trainer Gordon Elliott has saddled just five winners from thirty-eight runners this year, a far cry from his strike rate at the end of 2023) and An Tobar leaving the impression he’s a bit long in the tooth to be staying over hurdles against rivals of this calibre.

A 137 timefigure isn’t far behind what the likes of subsequent Ballymore winners Bob Olinger (143) and Envoi Allen (141) achieved in the race in 2021 and 2020 respectively, and that roll of honour would almost certainly had been added to had Ginto (141) not come to an untimely end in the 2022 Albert Bartlett when travelling smoothly into contention.

A finishing split from the third last faster than any of the hurdle-race winners on the card on the back of a much stronger gallop than those races were run at tells me this is very solid form despite the runners still being well grouped approaching the second last, and I doubt Readin Tommy Wrong will be as underestimated as this again.

Mullins novice round-up

Mullins also took one of the other hurdles with Tullyhill who was having his first race since weakening alarmingly when well beaten at Punchestown in November.

The visuals were good but a slow timefigure, a slow final circuit time and an uninspiring sectional from three out all combine to suggest that, on the clock at least, he’s still some way off being the top-class novice hurdle prospect he looked at one time and you’d hope he would brush up his hurdling significantly too. Easily though he won, I can’t help thinking he had next to nothing to beat.

Earlier on the card, Mullins had been expected to win the novice chase with Mister Policeman but he looked very laboured in third behind a seemingly rejuvenated Quixilios who was benefitting from a return to more forcing tactics and a return to the minimum trip having failed to stay three miles over Christmas.

All the same a 130 timefigure and finishing sectionals that weren’t greatly better than Pats Choice posted in the following handicap suggest that it wouldn’t be wise to go overboard about the form and I suspect any remaining Cheltenham hopes for Mister Policeman, whose chasing debut could hardly have been working out less well, are well and truly extinguished, in open company at least.

Interestingly, Mister Policeman was the fifth odds-on shot trained by Mullins to have been beaten over fences since Christmas, a sequence that started with the defeat of Facile Vega at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and which was continued over the latest weekend when Blood Destiny became the sixth from just ten runners to get beaten when caught by Spillane’s Tower at Punchestown.

Given the number of horses in training at Closutton, those figures might not worry Mullins too much, but given that he’d only had six odds-on shots beaten over fences in the same time period in the preceding four seasons, and then from twenty-seven runners and not ten, then it would seem that the ability of a good number of his chasers are being over estimated. An opportunity, then, for punters brave enough to question the form of those horses and step in.

Mullins did land the odds in the novice chase on a low-key Saturday card at Fairyhouse with Hunter’s Yarn, a horse who’d taken a big reputation with him to Cheltenham last year in the County Hurdle only to underperform seriously, but a winning time around eight seconds slower than the 139-rated Uncle Phil managed in the feature handicap contested largely by horses on the downgrade, slower sectionals from either three out or two and no entry in the upcoming Dublin Racing Festival is a clear warning that taking this form at face value might not be the wisest course.

Whether Blood Destiny deserved to start as short as 2/5 at Punchestown on Sunday in the Grade 3 betting Better With Sky Bet Handicap Chase is a moot point. He’d won a four-runner race on his chasing debut in a reasonable time but didn’t go on last season after a similarly promising start over hurdles and wasn’t able to fend off the upwardly-mobile Spillane’s Tower, handy enough to have been able to win a steadily-run race over two miles on his previous start yet looking for all the world here as though he’ll be a different model entirely when stepped up to three miles.

A 133 timefigure isn’t quite the same level (137) he reached over hurdles when dishing out a 15lb beating to the aforementioned Uncle Phil at the Punchestown Festival but there’s plenty of time for him to surpass that by some way given he’s only six. He reminds me of Noble Yeats who also started his chasing career off at two and a quarter miles at Galway and I wonder whether he’s a future National winner too?

Power 'ordinary' at Punchestown

The main event at Punchestown wasn’t the novice chase just referred to but the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, a Grade 2 event over an extended two miles that Mullins has won in recent years with Vautour, Douvan, Min, Dysart Dynamo and Impaire Et Passe.

None of those winners had only three rivals to beat as Mystical Power did, and for all his top-class pedigree and connections I can’t help thinking it’s a slight overreaction making him clear favourite for the opening race of the 2024 Festival, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

There’s little doubt he was visually impressive and his sectional time from the final hurdle to the finishing line show he ran that section much faster than the other two hurdle winners, but that’s not unexpected given that one of those was won by a 97-rated mare who was running over half a mile further in a race that had been relatively more strongly run and Mystical Power’s own timefigure was an ordinary 125.

With Lombron out of his depth and James’s Gate seemingly a light of his old bumper days, Mystical Power was only really left with the Gordon Elliott trained Jigoro, whose form in maiden hurdles was solid rather than spectacular, to beat and I’d say he needs to be about 8lb better than this (which he might well be, of course) if he is really deserving of his place at the head of the Supreme betting.

Dawning headlines domestic action

Over at Warwick, Grey Dawning put up one of the best performances by a novice either here or in Ireland this season with a fourteen-length defeat of Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle winner Apple Away in the Trustatrader Hampton Novices Chase that Timeform credited with a 161 timefigure.

Grey Dawning had already beaten Apple Away once this season, back at Haydock in November in a very muddling affair when Gaillard du Mesnil had been second, but there was no hiding place in this attritional affair in which Broadway Boy and Apple Away almost certainly did themselves no favours by taking each other on.

As such, the exaggerated distances between the runners aren’t accurately reflective of their respective merits, but Grey Dawning’s winning time and closing sectionals stack up well with those recorded by the still smart Sam Brown in the Veteran Series Final. This race was three miles but so strong was Grey Dawning at the end of it, it might be the National Hunt Challenge Cup that is the race for him at Cheltenham.

Down at Kempton, the Ryanair-touted Banbridge advertised his claims for that race with a near-two length defeat of Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 2 Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase. Pic D’Orhy travelled far better on this occasion than he had at Ascot last time and it needed a career-best on the clock from Banbridge to beat him in a 164 timefigure. Janadil and Edwardstone back in third and fourth give the form a solid enough look, but they both look to be on the downgrade now and given the doubts I expressed about Pic D’Orhy after his previous run I’m not taken by the 5/1 available about Banbridge for the Ryanair.

The other significant chase of the day was the William Hill Towton Novices’ Chase which had been won by Ahoy Senor in 2022 when the aforementioned Noble Yeats had finished second but had been brought forward in the calendar since then as well as having its distance shortened. The changes did nothing for the field size – just the four went to post again – but at least it was a well-run race and a 146 timefigure for winner Colonel Harry was an improvement on the 142 he posted when runner-up in the Betfair Henry VIII at Sandown last time even if it still leaves him with a fair bit to find with leading novices at up to two and a half miles.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.