Racing betting tips: Saturday April 2
1pt win Mister Marbles in 1.35 Newbury at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Alqamar in 2.25 Ayr at 10/1 (General)
1pt e.w. History Of Fashion in 3.35 Ayr at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Piece of History with Ireland's first win?
Having suffered burnt fingers backing a number of Irish-trained handicap chasers at the Cheltenham Festival this season, it was slightly frustrating to see Screaming Colours lead home a one-two for Ireland in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago.
Irish domination looks likely at Aintree again next weekend and while no runner from Ireland has ever won the Coral Scottish Grand National and only three go to post this Saturday, Pat Fahy, who saddled last year’s third Mister Fogpatches, looks to have two strong candidates in Stormy Judge and HISTORY OF FASHION.
With stamina looking his strong suit and drying ground very much a positive factor, the latter looks a bet despite appearing the yard’s second-string according to the market.
Point-to-point winner History Of Fashion was merely biding his time over hurdles last season but still ran some encouraging races, culminating in a staying-on fourth behind Surprise Package in the valuable Red Mills Series Final at the Punchestown Festival.
He bumped into some classy horses when sent chasing earlier this campaign including Blue Lord and Jungle Boogie but consequently entered the handicap ranks on a lowly mark and duly delivered with an eight-length win at Down Royal in January.
He’s appeared twice since that breakthrough success, unseating rider early on when 6/1 for the Eider Chase at Newcastle before a really eyecatching run over three miles on bad ground at Navan last month.
They went a bit of a crawl in that race and the winner Velvet Elvis – who was stepping up from two miles and sat prominently throughout – proved way too fast for them when turning the screw. History Of Fashion was only really getting going when it was too late, ultimately beaten six lengths having stayed on strongly after the last fence, and he looks made for marathon distances already.
Admittedly, the early-season mistakes could well creep back in in a race this competitive but his jumping was more assured under Philip Enright (ridden by claiming jockeys previously) last time and the likely strong gallop could set things up nicely for a lightly-weighted closer.
At 14/1 generally, he looks worth another chance off a BHA mark of 130 as he was clearly quite strongly fancied at Newcastle, form that is well represented here including second-favourite Win My Wings.
Cumbrian raider to pop Cork bubble
West Cork might well be a top novice chaser come next spring and he’s going to take some beating in the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle running off the same mark as when fourth to State Man in last month’s County.
The one slight snag I’ve got with him is that the bare two miles on such a sharp track could catch him out as he’s very much a strong galloper and the pair I like at the prices are Voix Du Reve and ALQAMAR, the latter clearly open to that bit more improvement and narrowly preferred in terms of a bet.
The Godolphin cast-off was going through the grades impressively when last seen and could potentially have made it five wins on the bounce had he not unseated Charlotte Jones at Wetherby, for all it was still a long way from the finish (four out).
He skipped last month’s Morebattle Hurdle on account of very soft ground but should have his conditions now and the son of Dubawi’s potent turn of foot will be a real weapon around here – a course we already know he enjoys having won his maiden by 16 lengths at the same track last May.
A mark of 132 could still seriously underestimate this 90-rated Flat horse and he looks to be resuming at a good time with his trainer’s only runner in the past fortnight having won at Haydock last Wednesday.
I can’t find anything like an appealing wager in the opening Scotty Brand Handicap Chase, while Dusart could be a cut above his rivals in the CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase, although I’ve still got plenty of time for Colin Tizzard’s Striking A Pose who could be the main threat.
He was value for a bit better than the end result when last of the four finishers at Newbury last time as he got racing far too early and consequently struggled to see out the trip around such a demanding circuit on the testing ground.
Major Dundee finished second in the same race and Alan King’s horse has a genuine chance in the National but I was hoping the handicapper might relent a little bit with Striking A Pose. Sadly, he’s presumably taken the same view and left the horse on a mark of 135 so I’ll take a pass and hope he goes well without quite getting the job done here.
Winning your Marbles?
I am, however, drawn to one at a double-figure price at Newbury and that is MISTER MARBLES for Philip Hobbs in the Play Pick 6 At BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.
He took a step backwards at Chepstow over Christmas having shaped very well in second at Taunton earlier in December but was right back to form following a breathing operation when beaten just over a length by Lord Of Cheshire in a Ludlow maiden towards the end of February.
The winner has gone in again since on handicap debut off 114 (raised to 120 as a result), while the third Red Vision has gone on to land a couple of minor novice events and the sixth Gris Majeur bolted up at Hereford last Friday and now carries an official rating of 120.
Mister Marbles has obviously done his bit for the form too, gaining a confidence-boosting first success in a Taunton maiden, where I thought Tom O’Brien was pretty canny in winning by just a length and a quarter at the line.
The six-year-old had them well strung out in behind and winged the final flight like a horse full of running, but his jockey eased off on the run-in and the end product was a negligible rise from 112 to 114 ahead of this handicap debut.
He’s bred to stay further so should relish the move up in distance, will cope well with any drying of the ground (going was good second time out at Taunton) and looks open to considerable improvement.
Published at 1530 GMT on 01/04/22
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