Saturday horse racing analysis following Betfair Sprint Cup and September Stakes

Draw bore in Sprint Cup

The Haydock sprint track is a bit of a nightmare to predict in the best of times and we saw an unsatisfactory draw bias in Saturday’s Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup.

Last year you had absolutely no chance if you were drawn high towards the stands’ side but this year that’s where you needed to be as stall 15 (Big Mojo) led home stalls 19 (Kind Of Blue), 16 (Flora Of Bermuda) and 13 (Rage Of Bamby).

Rewind 12 months and the first four home broke from stalls 2, 5, 6 and 4, so it’s an extra layer of unpredictability for punters in a division that is already pretty unfathomable.

It’s all well and good in the big-field handicaps, part of the puzzle if you will, but at the very top grade you want a level playing field and those drawn low had no chance.

Chief sufferer was Time For Sandals who beat the winner in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot but had to settle for seventh here after breaking from stall two.

She needs seriously marking up and will likely be a huge player back at Ascot in the British Champions Sprint on Champions Day next month for which she is a 16/1 chance – over twice the price of Big Mojo.

Fair play to Haydock clerk of the course Dan Cooper, who came on Racing TV on Friday and told everyone that would listen (I didn’t) that he expected the stands’ side to very much be the place to be judging by his GoingStick readings.

The Big Mojo team won’t care one bit and nor should they. The son of Mohaather has put together a very nice sequence at three after finishing a neck second in the July Cup on his previous start at six furlongs and he might not be done for the year yet.

But having such a significant draw bias in a Group 1? That should be a Big No No.

Haggas favourite thing could reach new heights

William Haggas had a Saturday to remember with a 1m6f Haydock handicap double for Wathnan Racing and Tony Bloom, but it was his Ascot winner for the latter owner that really raised the eyebrows.

Crown Of Oaks absolutely bolted up in the Silent Pool Gin 'Confined' Handicap off a mark of 85, winning by six-and-a-half lengths eased down as he made a mockery of his current rating.

Haggas has pummelled the bookies in the big handicaps this season with More Thunder winning such races at 11/4 and 6/5, while his Bullet Point and Santorini Star won big York handicaps at 15/8 and 100/30.

On the flip side there has been some respite for the bookies with foiled Haggas gambles like More Thunder at 3/1 in the Wokingham and Archivist at 15/8 in the John Smith’s Cup getting turned over.

It’s the combination of the size of the gambles and the quality of the handicaps that makes this an interesting angle but we might not have seen anything yet on that score.

Crown Of Oaks gets a 4lb penalty for his Ascot win making him likely to get in the Cambridgeshire towards the bottom of the weights and he could have a stone in hand.

What price could he go off? 2/1?! For a 35-runner handicap?

“We should probably consider it,” says Haggas, as Crown Of Oaks shortened into 4/1 three weeks before the stalls fly open for the popular cavalry charge.

September blues for Kalpana

Full disclosure, I’ve backed Kalpana for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. I know. I had visions of her paying for a trip to Paris, those Croque Monsieurs in the Le Marais won’t pay for themselves, but am I on a Croque Madame?

Clearly, defeat to Giavellotto in the Unibet September Stakes at Kempton was a setback.

I only wrote the other day that a first victory of the season was a necessity for Kalpana and here she was getting outbattled in the closing stages – not for the first time this campaign.

In the Pretty Polly at the Curragh she travelled better than Whirl before Aidan O’Brien’s filly knuckled down to beat her. But that was over 10 furlongs and she was giving the winner 12lb. No problem. In the King George she looked the likely winner for a long way in the Ascot straight, only for Calandagan to wet sail her towards the finish. But he’s a top-class 125-rated gelding and can’t run in the Arc. No problem.

Yet at Kempton she was getting 3lb from Giavellotto. And for all he’s a very good and genuine 120-rated horse who is well capable at the top level over 1m4f, I winced a little when she got outmuscled again.

The faith is wavering. But there is hope and it lies in the sky. She needs rain. She needs a wet autumn in Paris. Soft ground and we will see a different filly once again.

And then Andrew Balding says: “She is in the Arc and the Filles and Mares at Ascot, but it is really where the powers that be want to go. This was a prep, and that (Arc) was always the plan, but we will have to see how the field develops.”

Perhaps his faith is wavering, too.

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