Our value-seeking expert Matt Brocklebank has picked out a couple of horses he thinks are over-priced at Sandown and is keen to combine them in a Saturday double.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 2
1pt win Ernie’s Valentine in 1.50 Sandown at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Educator in 3.00 Sandown at 17/2 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
1pt e.w. double Ernie’s Valentine (1/5 1,2,3,4) & Educator (1/5 1,2,3,4) at SP
Ernie's efforts should be marked up
A sun-drenched Saturday seems likely to leave the ground just about spot-on for Virgin Bet Solario Stakes day at Sandown, where there are a couple of horses I’m keen to back and will roll the dice with an each-way double.
The feature Group 3 contest doesn’t particularly grab me, with Starlore returning from a 57-day break after just clinging on to win by a nose on his course and distance debut in early-July.
A son of Kingman, who won this himself a decade ago and also sired the brilliant Palace Pier who was 3-3 at Sandown through his career, Starlore obviously possesses no shortage of potential and you’d imagine a juvenile from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard will go on improving from his first outing, but he’s easy enough to pass over at the prices.
The right horses are around him in the market too with Aablan and Mortlake proving popular in opposition, the latter’s transformation from first to second start quite remarkable and it’s pretty hard to know where the ceiling of his ability might be.
There are more attractive betting races elsewhere on the card and I’ll kick off with the opening Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Handicap in which ERNIE’S VALENTINE is the horse to be on.
His three career wins have all come over sprint trips but he’s got some eyecatching form at seven furlongs too including a nose second at Lingfield last November and a couple of solid placed efforts on the turf at Goodwood (behind last week’s Clipper Handicap winner Ropey Guest) and Leicester (recent Newmarket winner Above back in third) earlier this summer.
After missing two engagements in July, he ran twice at Kempton through August and shaped well on both occasions, being denied a clear run on the first of them before doing too much too soon in an attempt to try and defy a wide draw when stepped up to a mile last Wednesday.
He stuck to the task well in the circumstances, until the petrol tank ran dry in the closing stages, and it was a performance I’d be happy to mark up (replay below). By contrast, the official handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds, leaving Ernie’s Valentine able to compete off a 3lb lower mark than when last successful.
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Trainers Paul and Oliver Cole tend to mean business when they go to the trouble of booking Oisin Murphy (three winners, two seconds, two thirds and a fourth from just 10 rides for the father-and-son training team) and while also drawn wide again this weekend, I don’t mind it at all over seven furlongs at Sandown as it tends to be those in stalls one, two and three who find themselves in a spot of early trouble as the field closes in on them before the turn.
Ernie’s Valentine should be able to pick up a decent early spot with a bit of luck, perhaps in the slipstream of likely front-runners King Cabo and Siam Fox, from out in stall 10 and the more the ground tightens up before racing the better.
I can’t really get away from the idea that Coppice, Heredia or Midnight Mile will win the Virgin Bet Atalanta Stakes and can consequently leave it alone given they’re all at the head of the market for the Group 3 contest.
Midnight Mile is the interesting one as she’s obviously pretty classy and I just wonder if the drop back to a mile could unlock some extra improvement in her this season.
She was different class when winning the 10-furlong fillies’ Listed race at York at the end of July but then got overhauled by two older males in Al Aasy and El Drama in the Rose Of Lancaster at Haydock last time, strongly suggesting a return to the mile wouldn’t go amiss.
She’s probably no more than a fair price around the 6/1 mark, though, so it’s onto the fiercely competitive Virgin Bet Handicap for a second bet on the card.
Watch and learn with Educator...
Gaassee would be the real sickener here having fancied him for the Sky Bet Ebor a few weeks back, but he’s not quite coming up to scratch and the drop to 10 furlongs for him looks a bit of a stab in the dark.
Dual Identity is a very obvious one back here and returned to 10 furlongs following an eyecatching effort in the Golden Mile at Goodwood and at much bigger prices I toyed with the idea of chancing Great Max now he’s back with Michael Bell, but at current odds I’ll row in with Gaassee’s stablemate EDUCATOR.
Another horse who is turned out quickly after running just last week, he shaped well in first-time blinkers when beaten a little over five lengths by Marhaba The Champ in the 12-furlong Sky Bet Handicap at York and I like the fact this horse’s best run so far this season came just five days on from a promising third at Doncaster in June.
Beaten a neck by Savvy Knight at Kempton less than a week on, he looked unlucky not to emerge on top as the front-running winner just got first run on the field and held on by a neck that night.
Educator looks versatile when it comes to underfoot conditions and these middle distances, while he’s only a couple of pounds higher than for the Kempton effort, with Ryan Moore returning to the saddle having ridden the horse just once last season.
Published at 1600 BST on 01/09/23
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