Value Bet tips: Saturday March 12
1pt e.w. Jet Plane in 1.50 Sandown at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Kihavah in 2.25 Sandown at 18/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Attempting to swell the time-honoured coffers before Cheltenham isn’t my bag at all and treating this weekend – and the whole of next week too for that matter – like any other is clearly the sensible approach towards trying to secure long-term profit.
I certainly won’t be forcing anything I don’t fancy, and at Sandown on Saturday I’m naturally inclined to focus on the two wide-open betting heats, firstly the European Breeders’ Fund Paddy Power “National Hunt” Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final which looks a belter.
It’s invariably one of the most competitive races run at this course all season and the latest edition definitely lives up to that sort of billing.
A big weight has never really been a barrier to success in the race and at the top of the pile Knappers Hill obviously returns to action with the Paul Nicholls yard in much better shape generally than when he finished a very fair sixth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time out.
He’ll probably rate a fair bit higher than 135 in the fullness of time too and conditions not being too demanding on what can be a gruelling track even at this time of year will probably play to his strengths. It remains to be seen whether a step up in trip is what he’s after at this stage, though, and there are similarly unexposed dangers everywhere you look further down the weights.
Plane to swoop under deadly Durrell
Dan Skelton has opted to keep Langer Dan back for another shot at next Friday’s Martin Pipe, but he’s still got two in the Imperial Cup as he seeks back-to-back wins there, and he’s got three interesting runners lined up for this event too on what could be another big weekend for one of the best target trainers around.
I can’t imagine there was much of a discussion in terms of who rode Our Jet and Hometown Hero as Harry Skelton and Bridget Andrews were aboard that pair on their respective latest starts, but the curveball in here is complete outsider JET PLANE near the foot of the weights.
The happy couple have both ridden him since the turn of the year too but I love the booking of impressive young 7lb claimer Tristan Durrell for this horse and his allowance could be a major factor in helping Jet Plane outperform his massive price.
As a second-season novice, he’s a bit of a late bloomer which wouldn’t usually be what you’re after in this contest, but I think we can safely scrap his first effort over hurdles as it came last April prior to the breathing operation which evidently helped him a great deal.
The horse was also booked for victory before falling at the last in a handicap hurdle at Warwick during December so in the end it took five goes to get off the mark, since when he’s finished third in a qualifier for this event early last month.
Not unduly knocked about at Leicester that day (just the solitary crack of the whip before Skelton seemed happy to swallow his medicine), the six-year-old ended up a respectable four lengths behind Anglers Crag, to whom he was conceding a 6lb winners’ penalty. Anglers Crag has since run in a Grade Two against Albert Bartlett favourite Hillcrest at Haydock and although pulled-up in bad ground there, it shows the kind of regard in which he must be held.
The often keen-going Jet Plane, who runs here off an unchanged mark of 117 (10lb above the Warwick mark before Durrell’s claim is factored in), looks to be crying out for a return to a big-field handicap and he remains open to a lot more improvement after just three efforts in the tongue-tie.
Strong pace key to Imperial rule
The aforementioned Paddy Power Imperial Cup has attracted a maximum field and punters appear to have put full faith in Nicky Henderson’s Balco Coastal despite the yard not only struggling for winners but also sending out a worrying number of weak finishers over the past three weeks.
Balco Coastal is dropping to two miles after his second to North Lodge in a Grade Two at Cheltenham in January and getting back on a right-handed circuit will suit given his three wins under Rules to date have come at Kempton, Huntingdon and Ludlow.
There may be no additional bonus this year but Balco Coastal will need to win this and pick up the penalty to stand any chance of getting into the County Hurdle next week, though it’s hard to escape the idea that he’s far too short for a race of this nature given his complete lack of handicap experience.
A near-guaranteed strong pace will suit the jolly but he’s not alone in that regard and at much bigger prices Grisbi De Berce and KIHAVAH look dangerous.
Alan King’s horse remains a work in progress and will surely land on a handicap prize this spring/summer once he finally consents to settle early on in his races. Until there’s a sign of that I’ll let him go unbacked and side with Kihavah, who looks more the finished article while still shaping like a horse who could have a bit up his sleeve from the assessor.
He’s swiftly become something of a stable star for Adrian Keatley (the only horse that’s won for the trainer this jumps season), immediately improving for the switch to handicaps when he probably should have won at Wetherby on Boxing Day, hanging left under pressure and beaten just a head.
Kihavah set the record straight with a bloodless victory against a moderate bunch at Newcastle and didn’t quite get up the hill at Cheltenham when seventh to subsequent Morebattle Hurdle winner Cormier just 11 days later, before returning to winning ways back in novice company at Musselburgh just over a month ago.
Two fallers at the last including Livelifetothemax, who was sadly fatally injured, understandably detracted from the winner’s achievements on the day, but it was obviously a pretty smart effort as the eventual runner-up, Since Day One, had won his three previous starts and has since won a Newcastle handicap from a mark of 125, prompting a rise to 130.
Kihavah can run off 124 this weekend, minus Kevin Brogan’s 3lb claim, and it’s not hard to argue there are few better conditionals riding in Britain than Brogan at the moment.
The likes of Mr Grey Sky, Current Mood, Up For Parol and Hacker Des Places should help set this up for a horse able to travel sweetly off a good gallop and, providing the forecast showers are nothing too drastic, the rapidly progressive five-year-old Kihavah is the one I want on side back from his short break.
Published at 1500 GMT on 11/03/22
More from Sporting Life
- Cheltenham Festival 2022
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.