Ripon's William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the big betting race this weekend and that's where Matt Brocklebank's focus lies on Saturday.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, August 19
1pt e.w. Anthem National in 3.15 Ripon at 18/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. King Of Bavaria in 3.15 Ripon at 25/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Let Rip with stable switcher in Great St Wilfrid
The overall quality doesn’t knock your socks off but it’s good to see such competitive racing at Ripon on Saturday, especially with the Ebor meeting around the corner, and I typically get drawn into having a bet or two in the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap, despite the obvious market leaders having a good record over the years.
Half of the last 10 favourites have obliged which is remarkable really when you think about the field size and overall competitive nature of a valuable sprint handicap on a relatively undulating track, and it begs an obvious question this weekend: what to do about a horse like Summerghand?
Just about every box is ticked on the face of it, including trainer David O’Meara’s fine historical record in the race (three wins) and that this horse has run well in it before.
Back on his last winning mark (97) and seemingly coming to the boil again when a closing fourth behind new stablemate and subsequent Stewards’ Cup winner Aberama Gold at York when last seen at the end of July, Summerghand is nearly always at his best this time of year and, in essence, his form book credentials are solid.
However, taking a short-ish price (11/2) about this talented veteran does mean you’ve got to trust he’s still got the will to win, and the fact he had to be withdrawn at the start of the Stewards’ Cup having become upset in the stalls must be a little off-putting (has since had to pass a stalls test).
I don’t recall that happening with him before and perhaps it’ll never be repeated, but nine-year-old sprinters are entitled to have developed one or two quirks by this point and I can’t bring myself to back him despite it not looking a red-hot renewal.
However, rather than looking towards one of the emerging three-year-olds down the weights – and Sophia’s Starlight is quite tempting after her remarkable effort in second when the saddle slipped at Goodwood – I’ll effectively look to fight fire with fire and back a couple of classy sorts who will almost certainly keep the favourite honest if bringing their A-game.
They are the top two on the card, kicking off with ANTHEM NATIONAL, who is set to make his debut for Phil Kirby having changed hands for 210,000 guineas last month.
Trained by the Crisfords as a three-year-old (unraced at two) before switching to Joseph O’Brien earlier this year, he’s probably not been the most straightforward animal but is clearly a useful operator on his day, for all that he’s only ever actually got his head in front in a novice race at Newcastle in February 2022.
He did go on to be placed behind El Caballo and Witch Hunter in a Listed race last spring which reads well, while his final run in Ireland just last month was a new career-best, sitting handily from the off and only finding Commanche Falls too strong late in the day (replay below).
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The winner went on to double up in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes and while Anthem National's subsequent rise in the ratings leaves him with a stiff enough task here running off a BHA mark of 105, it’s clearly merited if taken at face value.
He remains totally unexposed as a sprinter after just four lifetime starts at five and six furlongs, while I don’t think he’ll be inconvenienced if there’s still a good bit of juice in the ground. He’s never run on soft and was a non-runner on ‘yielding’ once in Ireland but he’s by Dark Angel and I’m not convinced it should be an issue as his half-brothers Gulf Of Mexico and Darvel both won on soft.
It’s quite a strong pedigree in general as his dam is a half-sister to Dandy Man and I think he’s a really interesting stable-switcher who could get a race run to suit from stall 15 towards the stands’ side where Hyperfocus will be the one at which to take aim.
King for a day?
If the heavens open overnight and it becomes genuinely testing then Summerghand’s stable companion Gulliver could pop up with a big run, but it might not be that bad come the off (reasonable forecast for raceday itself) and I’d rather split my stakes with one drawn a bit lower and the Mick Appleby-trained KING OF BAVARIA stands out (stall eight).
He’s another who was bought out of Ireland for a not inconsiderable sum (50,000 guineas) after not making the cut at Ballydoyle, and he’s already rewarded the move to some extent after winning a five-furlong handicap at Windsor (good to firm) back in May.
That was his second start for Appleby after a low-key debut effort but he’s run very well when fresh in the past for Aidan O’Brien and I don’t mind the fact he’s been kept on the back-burner since June, when down the field at Doncaster before bouncing back with a relatively encouraging effort when sixth in that ‘boozy’ Newcastle contest which resulted in Vintage Clarets beating Korker and Fine Wine - if the self-proclaimed ‘Wine Tipster’ Neil Phillips didn’t have the £1,608.70 Trifecta then he should hang his head in shame, quite frankly.
King Of Bavaria has been dropped a pound too so returns to action not only with the yard in better form than it was earlier in the season, but he's able to run off just a 2lb higher mark than for the Windsor win. He won’t mind what the ground’s like either as he’s won a heavy-ground nursery in his youth which also came off top weight so rain and the welter burden might not be enough to stop him showing his true colours.
If that’s the case then he can definitely make his presence felt.
No bet down south where rain could make things messy
The BetVictor Hungerford Stakes is the Group 2 feature at Newbury and, with even more rain forecast in certain areas down south, the state of the ground could cause a few significant issues.
Plenty of give underfoot wouldn’t really suit Chindit, Pogo or Jumby but I’m struggling to put much faith in Marbaan, another for whom soft ground would be an inconvenience, or the now-blinkered Mostabshir in opposition.
The other three-year-olds New Endeavour and Mammas Girl both switch to seven furlongs – the former from a mile and the latter from six – and aren't miles behind the established performers either on form, but nothing appeals enough at current odds.
I’m fully expecting a bunch of non-runners in the Heart Bingo Summer Sizzler Handicap, while the same applies in Newmarket’s Jenningsbet Grey Horse Handicap, which appears to feature a load of horses who love to hear their hooves rattle.
So it’s all about Ripon for me this Saturday with stakes kept pretty tight ahead of the fun and games to come at York next week.
Published at 1600 BST on 18/08/23
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