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Northern racing: From Willie Mullins at Aintree to Willie Mullins at Ayr

By Lewis Tomlinson
Horse Racing
Sat April 12, 2025 · 8M ago

Lewis Tomlinson wraps up his northern scene for the jumps season as Willie Mullins conquers Aintree and probably Ayr as well.

So, with the jumps season in this part of the world coming to a close, we’re going to wrap up the weekly Northern Scene column.

I’ll still be back intermittently to chat about the Flat (thinking lots of talk about Karl Burke’s juveniles, even more talk about how mint Ponte is) but we’ve got a lot to dive into before that.

Dan Skelton, please look away now.

WHAT’S HAPPENED

I’d mentioned last week that I felt unusually flat ahead of this year’s National, but walking the course for the first time before racing on Friday was about as strong of a remedy for that as any doctor could’ve prescribed. I don’t want to sound melodramatic, but it really does give goosebumps being so close to so much history, perhaps even more so when the morning is peaceful and the anticipation still hangs in the air.

The action is great on Thursday, the crowd perhaps even more so on Friday. Aintree really is a special place when the sun is out.

Saturday, of course, is the day that matters most, though.

I don’t know whether I’m alone in this, and it’s not something I can quantify, but watching this year’s race felt more like a “traditional” Grand National than the previous running; perhaps a much quicker gallop – the field were at the Chair twelve seconds sooner this time around – the cause, but as 30 of them set out onto the second circuit, the story of the first half of the National had been just how clean the race had looked again.

So far, so good and I was almost expecting the hardline traditionalists to bemoan what had been a relatively incident-free contest up to that point. But then Broadway Boy took a very heavy fall at Valentines. And he didn’t immediately get up.

Thankfully, the Twiston-Davies gelding is back home safe and sound, though for the first time, I genuinely considered whether the Grand National, and jumps racing as a whole, might come under threat in my lifetime. Perhaps naively, I’d always considered such a possibility as doom-mongering – in my experience the people who are completely ambivalent far outnumber the Animal Rising-adjacent brigade, but the horse’s name was still trending late into the evening and racing was perhaps lucky not to have spent the past couple of days on the defensive again.

The fences are objectively safer nowadays – for the second consecutive year the Topham went by without a single faller, but it remains such a precarious world to live in when year in, year out, the most important day in the calendar for the sport can be framed as a success or failure by a margin as narrow as one jump.

It’d also be insincere to discuss this year’s National without referencing the loss of the grand old warrior Celebre d’Allen, whose passing was sadly announced on Tuesday, a couple of days after he collapsed with heatstroke on the run-in after running a mighty race for a long way. His port-mortem has apparently revealed his death to be unrelated to the events of the weekend, for which Micheal Nolan was handed a 10-day ban for failing to pull up. If I’m honest, I thought the sport was in for a serious hammering from the mainstream media later in the day, the optics regarding horse welfare even worse than a fall from my point of view, but the news didn’t really seem to break too far outside of the racing bubble. I’ve seen plenty of comment within our industry about whether Celebre d’Allen should’ve even been in the line-up, whether his age or arguably suspect stamina should’ve seen him ruled out of participating in the first place, but I’m still sceptical as to whether any sort of convoluted trimming or tinkering to the entry criteria would have a significant positive effect on reducing the risk of fatalities.

The Grand National field of 2025

Looking ahead to future Grand Nationals - whichever form they may take - one thing for certain is that contenders in the mould of Auroras Encore or Pineau De Re are a complete thing of the past in the modern race. I stumbled into that trap with my picks; Stumptown and Vanillier perhaps more suited to the race’s previous iteration, neither close to pacy or classy enough to get themselves involved at any stage.

It’s a shame that the Scottish National, the Welsh National and the Midlands National are becoming increasingly obsolete with regards to Aintree, the improvement required to win one of the aforementioned races and then bridge the gap to Grand National-standard becoming greater and greater. This weekend’s feature at Ayr is a prime example of the diminishing quality of these previously major handicaps. A decade ago, nineteen runners went to post at Ayr with a BHA mark of 140 or higher; this year, it’s only seven – and one of them is Mr Incredible (does he still count as a racehorse?).

This year’s Aintree 1-2-3 were all rated in 160s and I’d wager that had the trio have represented any yard other than Mr W P Mullins, they’d have taken their chances in the thinnest Gold Cup running for some time. Nick Rockett, I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West each ran a race that would’ve seen them make the podium at Cheltenham on Timeform ratings, I Am Maximus in fact running to a figure only 1lb below that of Galopin Des Champs at the Festival and each of the three again bettering Gaelic Warrior’s Grade 1-winning effort earlier in the week in the Bowl.

I do wonder whether we’ll see some sort of knock-on effect across the top Grade 1 staying chases across the next couple of seasons given that the National is, more so than ever before, a race for the progressive horse. Grangeclare West’s connections have already stated a return to Aintree, rather than a Cheltenham campaign, is on the cards next year – hard to imagine anything other than a moderately competitive season at the top level for a horse now rated 168 with the IHRB if another National tilt is Plan A.

In a similar vein, I wonder how connections of Iroko would reflect on their season, the subtlest of subtle Grand National campaigns. Certainly, his fourth-placed finish at the weekend boded well for 2026, confirming his stamina for the marathon trip under a more patient ride than the other principals.

Given that he’s been left on an unchanged mark of 152, it’ll be interesting whether he comes in for a similarly quiet time of things next winter. Amongst British staying chasers, only Grey Dawning and the totally ground-dependent Royale Pagaille hold higher Timeform ratings and Iroko is a particularly rare case of a horse retaining a “p” into his third season over fences. He split Inothewayurthinkin and Heart Wood at the meeting last season and there are clearly big races, handicaps and non-handicaps, to be won with him next year. As tempting a carrot as another crack at the National from 152 must be, it’d surely take bravery bordering on recklessness to spend another 12 months protecting a mark, as to be frank, to go two seasons winless with a horse as evidently well-treated, with so much latent ability as Iroko in a domestic division lacking any real depth, would be careless, to say the least.

I’ll wrap the section up with a couple of odds and ends from the National and the rest of the meeting; though finishing in 15th, it was the most I’ve liked anything that has been done by Bravemansgame since his famous battle with Galopin back in the day. I’m still not convinced he’ll ever win another race, but I think a lot of people have forgotten quite quickly just how good he was in his pomp and it was nice to see the old lad go with a bit of zest again. Gaelic Warrior is a horse I will never understand. Gidleigh Park is one of the most impressive beasts I’ve ever seen in the flesh and I’d be confident the Manifesto will prove strong form. Had the beaten jockeys in the Red Rum not watched how Sans Bruit won the race the year before?

WHAT’S HAPPENING?

Once again, it’s Willie Mullins vs the world.

Eighteen from Closutton are declared at Ayr on Saturday, six of those aiming to make it back-to-back Scottish National victories for the Champion Trainer.

CHOSEN WITNESS, a winner over hurdles at the meeting last season, will go off favourite, with stablemates OLYMPIC MAN and defending champion MACDERMOTT also prominent in the betting. The pick of the bunch on Timeform figures though is CAPTAIN CODY; his weight-adjusted 159 rating nestles him only 1lb behind top-rated National Hunt Chase runner-up ROCK MY WAY and if the past few weeks have taught us anything at all, it’s that Mullins can bang them in at any price going.

ETHICAL DIAMOND and BUNTING the attack in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, the former rating as the best bet of the day from a 1lb higher mark than when an eye-catching fourth in the County last month.

I’ll also be backing LEADER IN THE PARK in the Hillhouse Quarry Chase on Friday, a really likeable type trained by Ben Pauling who lost little in defeat when giving a bold show from the front at Kelso early last month.

And I wouldn’t be able to sign off for the spring without mentioning WHISTLE STOP TOUR, the ground apparently “not suitable” enough for him to take his chance in the Scottish National, but suitable enough for him to have been declared instead in the novice handicap. In Lucinda we trust, of course, but consider the head well and truly scratched this time – we might have to wait ‘til the autumn to reap the rewards of this long term project, with Plate third MASACCIO and handicap newcomer LOUGHGLYNN adding to what looks a hot race of it’s type.

We’ll get there with him in one day…

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