It's bet365 Craven day at Newmarket on Thursday and our in-form tipster has a selection at HQ as well as one at Cheltenham to consider.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 105pts profit.
- This year he's tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1 and Rebel Territory at 7/1 (earlier this week).
Value Bet tips: Wednesday, April 19
1pt win Well Vicky in 1.30 Cheltenham at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Ferrous in 1.50 Newmarket at 10/1 (General)
Channon can get on sprint handicap scoresheet
The bet365 Craven Stakes doesn’t quite hold the same reputation it once had in terms of unearthing genuine Classic prospects but the past four winners have all gone on to be placed in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, so Thursday’s Newmarket feature clearly remains a trial to take seriously.
Prior to Naval Power being ruled out, leaving Charlie Appleby to rely on Mysterious Night who was a bit of a star for the yard overseas towards the end of last summer, I was hoping to get The Foxes on side in some capacity, but it seems Andrew Balding’s colt has been well found in the market.
I don’t think this horse quite got the credit he deserved for winning a falsely-run Royal Lodge over this course and distance in September as he did come from the back of the four-runner field after all.
That form stands up to close scrutiny with runner-up Dubai Mile going on to land the Criterium de Saint-Cloud and the third, Appleby’s highly-regarded Flying Honours, winning the Zetland Stakes here the following month.
The Foxes, a bit of a buzz horse at huge prices before making little impression in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot, won his maiden at Goodwood’s big meeting later in the year and there’s got to be a chance he’ll stay further than a mile at three, being as he is closely related to Bangkok and half-brother to the likes of Matterhorn and Yahoo.
With that in mind, I fully expect Oisin Murphy (gets to the ride the horse for the first time in public) to be relatively aggressive on him here and it’ll take a good horse – and a fit one – to get past him. Perhaps Mysterious Night will deliver on both fronts, but I know who I’d be backing if forced into a bet.
Thankfully I’m not, and there are more appealing punting races on the card anyway, kicking off with the bet365 Handicap.
You could make some sort of case for any number of these but one that’s seemingly being underestimated in the market at double-figure odds is FERROUS, who looks a cracking little project for Jack Channon in this three-year-old sprint handicap division this season.
There are several opportunities to land a nice pot along the way, including at York, Ascot and the July Course, but Ferrous has had a prep run and the yard is in good nick too so I’m hopeful the timing could be right with this colt.
He was unusually late to make the track for a son of Dark Angel but Channon senior is on record stating he’d been well ‘worth the wait’ after winning second time out at Doncaster on November 5, and it could be a case of ‘worth the weight’ here for Connor Beasley as he’s getting right down to what must be very close to his minimum in order to take the ride.
I absolutely loved last month’s comeback effort from Ferrous at Southwell, when looking the best horse in the race by some margin for most of the journey.
The lack of a recent outing might just have caught up with him close home as he was ultimately collared by the well-backed Yorkshire after leading with a furlong to travel, and he could tighten up considerably for the outing.
The switch to handicaps is immediate after being allotted a mark of 83 and that looks more than fair considering his debut third at Windsor was behind the now 104-rated Proverb.
He should handle all types of ground, but we already know he’s fine with some juice underfoot, and I don’t mind the low draw in three either as Pinafore (one) and Grace Angel (eight) are reasonable pace angles to help the selection along, for all that the speedy King’s Crown is drawn right on the other side in stall 15.
I’ll be playing win-only, but there are five places on offer with a few firms which may appeal to some readers.
There’s a lot of guesswork involved with the Best Odds Guaranteed at bet365 Handicap, and even more so the Wood Ditton, while it’s tempting to look for something with which to oppose Creative Force at very skinny odds in the Abernant, but that’s harder than you might think.
The closest I came was to recommend a small dart at Roger Varian's Saint Lawrence, who has generally put his best foot forward first time out and could find a little extra improvement for being gelded over the winter.
He’s still got a long way to go to be in the favourite’s wheelhouse, though, and the early 25/1 went quite quickly too so I’ll take a pull.
What is the best bet at Cheltenham?
The sole ITV4 race from Cheltenham is their opening NAF Challenger Series Mares’ Final Handicap Hurdle and there are a bunch of thriving mares in the line-up which makes for a competitive contest.
The obvious one would have to be Windtothelightning, representing Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, as she lines up on the back of three straight wins.
She and Ruby Island pulled over eight lengths clear of the rest at Ayr last month and although the runner-up could only finish mid-pack in Newbury’s big mares’ handicap later in March, Windtothelightning is obviously on a pretty steep upward curve and could still have room to manoeuvre from her mark of 117.
Her previous Market Rasen success was particularly impressive and on that occasion she had the reopposing Presenting A Queen five lengths back in second.
Given a Timeform ‘squiggle’ after some iffy behaviour on easy ground at Exeter in November, Presenting A Queen has a tidy 3-6 strike-rate under Rules and although well held after being outpaced that day at Market Rasen, it did appear the return to good ground helped her get back on track to some extent.
I wouldn’t rule out Chris Gordon’s runner reversing placings with the favourite on 6lb better terms here, but at an even bigger price it could be worth giving another chance to the three-time winner WELL VICKY.
She's an interesting one as she clearly got herself extremely well handicapped with her low-key maiden/novice outings around the turn of the year, and has already come a long way in rising from an opening mark of 80 up to 103.
She's definitely being priced up on the basis that the assessor now has her measure following last month's Chepstow fourth behind Dollar Bae, but I'm not entirely convinced by that thinking as she'd been doing her winning on much better ground and didn't appear to be in love with conditions by any means.
Sent off favourite that day (someone still thinks there a bit of wriggle-room in her rating), I thought she kept on quite well in the circumstances and it definitely hinted that she has a bit more untapped potential trying the extended two and a half mile trip for the first time.
The weather's set fair in Gloucestershire and I think her chances increase with every passing minute if the sun's shining, and she's 7lb better off with the winner so that should help too, and can't be letting her go unbacked at a general 16/1.
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Published at 1500 BST on 19/04/23
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