Matt Brocklebank tipped a 22/1 winner at Newmarket on Friday and returns to preview the three major handicaps on Saturday.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over in June 2020 would have produced over 142pts profit, while he's over 50pts up for the year following 22/1 winner Killybegs Warrior on Friday.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, July 15
1pt win Call Me Ginger in 1.45 Ascot at 28/1 (NON RUNNER - withdrawn at start)
1pt win Faylaq in 3.10 York at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Lir Speciale in 4.00 Newmarket at 20/1 (NON RUNNER)
Who you gonna call?
Loads of brilliant betting opportunities on a super Saturday for racing fans – although keeping fully abreast of everything that’s going on at York, Ascot, Chester and Newmarket through the afternoon won’t be straightforward.
I’ll look to keep things pretty simple as the mantra for this column, long before I took the reins, has been to focus on the most competitive handicaps and three of those really stand out this weekend.
The first up is the Ascot/1711 Learning To Work Bake-Off Competition Heritage Handicap in which CALL ME GINGER looks overpriced.
He rocked up here to win over course and distance on King George day last summer just five days on from a fair effort when sixth over six furlongs at Ayr, and he’s attempting something very similar this weekend, only he finished fifth at Ayr on this occasion.
It wasn’t the first time he’d overcome a quick turnaround to win in his career either and he’s clearly a horse who takes his racing extremely well.
Like the vast majority of sprint handicappers, he seems to have a sweet spot in terms of ratings having recorded his last four victories from marks of 83, 81, 86 and 89 so it’s no surprise to see him seemingly on the way back to peak form after easing back to 87.
All ground comes alike to Call Me Ginger so the forecast rain isn’t an issue (and may help take the sting out of some of his rivals), the Jim Goldie yard is flying along in fantastic form, while Amie Waugh returns to the saddle in order to take off another 5lb.
Waugh has won two of her last three rides on the seven-year-old and at 25/1-plus he looks a cracking bet.
All that glitters is Goldie
It might be a red-letter day for Goldie whose FAYLAQ appeals at the odds in the John Smith’s Cup.
He’s looking to follow in the hoofprints of stable companion Euchen Glen who won York’s valuable handicap in 2018 after placing over a significantly longer trip in Newcastle’s Northumberland Vase, the consolation race for the Plate.
Faylaq shouldn’t have many secrets from the handicapper in theory as he’s a thoroughly exposed seven-year-old but the change of scenery – having only joined Goldie this spring – looks to have triggered a positive reaction and there’s no denying he’s still thrown in on the pick of his old form for William Haggas and Ewan Whillans.
That body of work included plenty of strong form over 10 and 12 furlongs and he’s already shown he’s still got the requisite pace for this sort of test as he was a strong-travelling third over a mile and three at Hamilton in mid-May before the decision was taken to roll the dice over two miles in the north east.
Given the rain around in Yorkshire, I’d be happy enough to oppose the 9lb well-in Long Tradition as he didn’t look in love with the soft at Newbury two starts ago.
On that theme, I’d be more fearful of the Haggas-trained Millebosc who has some seriously eyecatching form from his time in France. He made his UK debut at Lingfield in November and has since been gelded, while the Ebor entry suggests connections think he’ll stay further which is going to be a big plus in the conditions.
But with Millebosc’s price crashing into single figures, I’ll go solo with the versatile and experienced Faylaq.
Lure of Lir hard to resist (NON RUNNER)
Emaraaty Ana is the horse I came closest to backing in the Pertemps Network July Cup Stakes but don’t want to force the issue given Azure Blue could be very hard to beat.
Stall one might not be ideal for her but she’s got bags of natural speed and should be well suited to this, perhaps more so than main market rivals Shaquille and Little Big Bear.
Streets Of Gold running against older horses in the bet365 Bunbury Cup looks a potentially canny piece of placement by trainer Eve Johnson Houghton as he won a juvenile novice race on his only previous visit to the track and he’s 4lb well-in after a quality run when third in the Jersey Stakes.
Seven furlongs might just be the top end of his stamina limit based on that Royal Ascot effort but he’s otherwise got a fine chance of success.
Having said that, you’re going back to 1998 for the last three-year-old winner and in the past three years alone we’ve seen three-year-olds Samburu, Fundamental, Perotto and Tomfre all beaten here at single-figure odds.
So I’m happy to look elsewhere on balance and I really like the look of LIR SPECIALE, who was 2-2 at this trip before the Buckingham Palace and didn’t really get the opportunity to enhance that record as he was squeezed for room between the two and the one-furlong marker.
Roger Varian’s four-year-old could be spotted doing some decent late work after the damage was done, though, so I’m not surprised the handicapper has left him alone on a mark of 97.
That’s 7lb higher than the rating he defied on his seasonal comeback at Kempton in May but he dotted up that day, swiftly putting the race to bed in the home straight and not doing an awful lot once out in the clear on his own.
A really big field and fast-run pace promises to suit Lir Speciale down to the ground (he won in fields comprised of 11 and 13 runners last year) and I’ve no fears over his middle draw (13) as he’s close to some of the most likely pace forcers in Lethal Levi (12), Cruyff Turn (14) and Awaal (16).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1500 BST on 14/07/23
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