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Matt Brocklebank's running total (including Antepost) from June 2020 to present: +191.64pts to advised stakes/prices.
Value Bet Tips: Saturday May 2
1pt win Al Arbeed in 14:20 Newmarket at 18/1 (General)
1pt win Needle Match in 15:35 Newmarket at 16/1 (bet365) - 14/1 General
1pt win Dashing Darcey in 14:40 Thirsk at 14/1 (William Hill, bet365)
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Haggas to strike with promising Match
An open-looking Betfred 2000 Guineas gets this year’s Classic campaign under way and in a week which saw trainer Roger Varian suggest it might be “a year to be brave” with a colt like Avicenna, I’d argue punters should probably be thinking along similar lines.
Speaking about the recent Craven runner-up in his Stable Tour on these pages, Varian gave the impression he might not have pursued a shot at the Guineas in a more typical scenario, but that the nature of this year’s race left him with little reason not to roll the dice on the back of what was a perfectly reasonable course and distance trial.
The lightly-raced Avicenna has every right to take on Craven winner Oxagon again the way I see it as the ‘form’ horses from last season, such as Dewhurst second and third Gstaad and Distant Storm, don’t look too terrifying as far as standard-setters go, while Bow Echo brings a pretty tasty, unbeaten record to the table but he’s yet to be tried at Group 1 level and lacks a prep race.
Distant Storm’s Charlie Appleby stablemate King’s Trail was the horse I’d been leaning towards for a while but if you’re going to side with pure potential like that then the recommendation is to try get a bit more meat on the bone in terms of value.
Despite shortening a few points since final declarations, I’m still keen to explore the claims of NEEDLE MATCH representing William Haggas, who doesn’t run them in the Guineas for a giggle. In fact, you’re going back seven years for the last time he threw one into the picture, his Craven winner Skardu placing third behind Magna Grecia despite being drawn away from the bulk of the action.
That was just Haggas’s third ever runner in the first Classic. So, it does look quite significant that Needle Match gets the green light but at the same time I can see the thinking as he was probably the one to take from the Greenham at Newbury, where he finished just over two lengths behind the reopposing Alparslan in fourth – on just his second career start.
Alparslan had three runs under the belt already from his juvenile campaign and was surely at least a small bit flattered by how he was able to dominate from the front towards the stands’ side rail on his comeback.
I quite liked how both Zavateri and Albert Einstein fared just behind the winner, but neither shows up for the Guineas whereas the unexposed fourth horse does and it might be the stronger of the two main trials.
Alparslan seems unlikely to get it all his own way on this occasion, with Into The Sky, Power Blue and the aforementioned Oxagon all expected to help force the pace, and that looks to be what the Night Of Thunder colt Needle Match might need to eke out the necessary improvement in order to be a factor.
He’s certainly a good stamp of a horse and I’ve no doubt the move up to a mile will be beneficial. Quite what to make of stall 1 is largely an element of guesswork but he’s one away from Distant Storm and two from Into The Sky so may get a fair set-up all being well. In essence, the draw won’t be an issue if he’s good enough – as we found out with Galileo Gold (2016) and Coroebus (2022) who overcame the far-side gate to win the Guineas recently (five others have won from single-figure stalls in the past decade alone).
Happy Hannon on Guineas day?
In the HKJC World Pool Palace House Stakes, I couldn’t put anyone off another each-way dabble on recent Abernant third Quinault, but this is a shade tougher and he still has something to prove dropping back to the minimum trip.
Beckford’s Folly, only eighth in the Abernant but potentially happier back over five furlongs on genuinely quick ground, and the classy mare Frost At Dawn, who will also enjoy the conditions, are others on the shortlist if looking to oppose the penalised Asfoora, but it can hardly be argued any of them has been completely overlooked in the betting.
Perhaps Beckford’s Folly around 12/1 could be the bet.
There appear to be more appealing punting races elsewhere, although I’m not sure Newmarket’s six-furlong Betfred Handicap is among them as Craven meeting scorer Double Rush still looks thrown in under the 5lb penalty as he’s due to compete from another 8lb higher in future.
He had looked a potential Wokingham type when dotting up on stable debut but that could be out of the window if he doubles down here, the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes entry not looking too fanciful as things stand.
It’s more tempting to take on the market leaders in the Betfred Suffolk Stakes, with plenty of the 13-runner field afforded some sort of chance despite a handful of them due to be dropped in the ratings and badly-in at the weights as a consequence here.
AL ARBEED is not among that group and I like the fact he’s had a couple of early-season spins which have resulted in him being eased 2lb in the handicap as he’s now down to a career-low mark (92), with plenty of room for improvement after just seven starts.
He was unraced at two and although yet to add to his three-year-old debut success in a Southwell maiden, he’s got bits and pieces of form that give him a real squeak in this, not least the close fourth back at Southwell last October.
The winner, second and third all went on to add more victories to their tallies subsequent to that race, and I thought Al Arbeed was getting back towards the same sort of level when a staying-on fifth over seven furlongs at Musselburgh last month.
Not given a particularly hard time in the saddle in Scotland, that second run after a winter break might just have left him spot-on now stepped up to nine furlongs for the first time in his life.
Granted, he’s got quite a speedy pedigree but the way he’s been shaping he could be a different horse again with more emphasis placed on stamina and I’m a big fan of his around the 16/1 mark on his first run back at HQ since he was third in a Conditions Stakes at the Craven meeting last spring.
Dashing to victory up north
The final bet comes in the Sky Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap in North Yorkshire.
The key thing here is that there looks to be plenty of early pace on, not least from the likes of Flight Plan, Esherann and Sea Force who are all drawn low.
Flight Plan made every yard to score last year but Look Back Smiling almost won from the rear two years ago and it was the same with 2023 runner-up Pisanello. Going back another season, the now veteran 12-year-old Redarna was drawn 15 and held onto out the back before getting up close home, and there’s a realistic scenario in which this season’s prominent posse take each other on and leave the door ajar for one or two of the closers drawn wider out.
Redarna is 2lb out of the handicap and surely too long in the tooth to stage a repeat, but the likes of Blue Rc (stall 11) and DASHING DARCEY (13) have a chance on firm and I prefer the latter at current odds.
He lacks a recent run but tends to go well when fresh and his trainer Geoff Harker has had a winner and a close third from just two turf runners in the past fortnight so I’m willing to take a chance on fitness.
The five-year-old Dashing Darcey, formerly trained in Newmarket by Roger Varian, has recorded all three wins over this mile trip and put in a cracking run when beaten less than a length in second at Haydock last May.
He failed to show up on his only subsequent start the following month but returns to action having been gelded and he’s been afforded a bit of leniency from the assessor – back down to 90 having last won off 86 for Varian a couple of summers ago.
He’s well capable of mixing in this sort of company, if ready to roll following the layoff, and his chance is underestimated by the market.
Published at 16:00 BST on 01/05/26
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