Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to QIPCO 1000 Guineas day on Sunday and adds a fresh Newmarket bet to his good position on the Classic.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 117pts profit.
- So far this year he's +27.44pts having tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1 (R4) and Gloire D’athon at 14/1 (R4).
Value Bet tips: Sunday, May 7
1pt win Adjuvant in 1.50 Newmarket at 11/1 (bet365, 10/1 General)
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Charlie Appleby’s Dream Of Love was the focal point of the long-range Newmarket preview at the start of April and she remains a most intriguing filly heading into Sunday’s QIPCO 2000 Guineas.
Bred to be a top-notch three-year-old, the daughter of Shamardal justified strong market support over seven furlongs of the Rowley Mile on her debut in October and although unable to follow up when stepped up to a mile in a soft-ground Listed race later that month, it appeared to come quickly enough in her education.
Given 90 days off, she ran once out in Meydan in late-January and looked a different animal, flying home from an impossible position at the top of the straight to miss about by a short-head from Saeed bin Suroor’s Mawj, whose juvenile form ties in quite closely with Meditate and Lezoo and has since beaten Nell Gwyn runner-up Fairy Cross by eight and a half lengths in Dubai.
Appleby obviously saw enough from Dream Of Love to put her away without running in a Guineas trial and while likely to appreciate another step up in distance at some stage this year (her dam Secret Gesture was second in the Oaks), the stiff mile at Newmarket should be well within her compass at this stage.
The glaring threat is Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra, half-sister to Tarnawa yet blessed with much more natural pace based on her striking wins at two.
She’d presumably want the ground to have eased at least a little bit by Sunday afternoon, which could well be the case, but there shouldn’t be any issues with the step up to a mile and I’m not really buying into the yard being out of form. Granted, Weld hasn’t had a winner since November but very few of his would be ready to rumble this time of year and if he’s happy to travel with her then she must be showing the right signals.
Price is the bottom line, however, and at 5/2 or thereabouts we can happily let her go.
The closest I came to a fresh bet in Sunday’s Classic was Karsavina, who shaped with promise in fourth behind Mammas Girl in the Nell Gwyn. She’s going to need a massive jump forward from her first run back at three but better ground and the step up in trip should both play to the strengths of the daughter of Ulysses.
However, there are better bets to be had elsewhere, namely ADJUVANT in the Howden Handicap (Heritage Handicap) over the mile and three-quarters.
He was a surprisingly nippy two-year-old given his stout pedigree, winning his first two starts and running well in a Goodwood nursery but clearly enjoyed a move up in distance after being gelded last season.
He only added one more success to the tally which came over a mile and a half on the July Course here but he was third in the Melrose at York and probably posted a career-best performance when fifth in another very warm three-year-old only contest won by Inverness at Haydock in early-September.
Quite keen early on that day, he still stayed on strongly inside the final couple of furlongs and ultimately did best of those held up mid-to-rear, in what turned into a bit of a mad dash for the line.
The last run back at York in October – his eighth of the campaign - just looked one too many and the ground had gone a bit more him too so I’m more than happy to give him a pass. He’s been eased a pound for that run and resumes on the same mark as for the Haydock effort.
That looks perfectly workable if maintaining his improvement as expected this time around and it’s interesting to see top 3lb claimer Billy Loughnane booked for his first ride for the Bell stable.
Postileo had an entry in the same Newmarket contest but instead heads north of the border for Hamilton’s 0-95 Patersons Of Greenoakhill Buttonhook Handicap and it could be a shrewd piece of placement.
Roger Varian’s lightly-raced horse hasn’t been seen in public since October 2021 but he was an impressive winner on that occasion and, after the lengthy layoff, looks to have been dealt with very favourably by the official handicapper as he’s resuming off just 1lb higher.
He’s hardly being missed in the market, though, and I’m not bowled over by anything at current odds in the televised City Bowl Handicap from Salisbury either.
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Published at 1505 BST on 06/05/23
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