A superb day's racing in store at Longchamp and Graeme North goes through the key races with a fine-toothed comb.
There is a feast of action at Longchamp on Sunday with six Group races – or seven if you include the Qatar Cup for Arabians – with the highlights being the Pix Vermeille and the Prix du Moulin.
The going stick currently reads 3.6, which translates as on the soft side, but there was racing at the Parisian venue on Thursday when the time for the Prix d’Arenberg was the second quickest at this venue in the last decade and the apparently slowish times on the round course were down to the rail being out by twenty metres. Timeform called Thursday’s ground good and I’m expecting faster conditions on Sunday with the track having been hit by only a few minor showers since and tempertures forecast to be thirty degrees.
Seven go to post for the Prix du Moulin (15:25) and it’s not a vintage renewal. Dorset has been supplemented to cut out the pace for Gstaad while Dreamliner and Nighttime will surely only play a major role if all or most of the big four run below par for whatever reason. Three of that quintet met last time out in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on good to firm ground when Gstaad finished second, Opera Ballo finished third and Ten Bob Tony finished fourth with the distances between them a length and three quarters and then half a length, finishing in betting order behind the winner and odds-on favourite Bow Echo.
If there are reasons for that order to change, or at least the distances between them to reduce, one might be that Gstaad, probably the best three-year-old miler still in training in Europe, has suffered a setback since which caused him to miss the Prix Jacques le Marois while another might be that Opera Ballo gets a 3lb swing in the weights (according to Timeform’s conversion of the French metric scale) while a less pressing ride than he received at Goodwood where he the first home of those ridden close to a very strong pace could also help given his very potent turn of foot has been somewhat compromised o his last two starts.
Ten Bob Tony had beaten Opera Ballo into third in the Queen Anne but had the race set up for him that day and since Goodwood has found the drop to a sharp seven furlongs in the City of York too much of a speed test. The other horse among the four and arguably the most interesting is the still unexposed Erdenali whose trainer Francis Graffard landed two valuable contests at Longchamp on Thursday. He made a striking impression when winning his first three races by a combined eleven lengths and would have won the Prix Messidor at Deauville too last time with any luck in running, hemmed in on the bridle on the rail for all of the last fifty yards but then flying home when in the clear and unlucky not to have won by some margin.
The opposition was typical Group 3 level, and he meets three much higher calibre opponents here, but he’s arguably still the most exciting three-year-old miler in France, probably a few lengths better than Nighttime who finished third in the French 2000, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on. 4/1 is a minimum price; anything less than 7/2 and I wouldn’t bother.
Thirteen runners go to post for the Prix Vermeille (14:50) which is the largest field since the 2012 renewal won by Shareta. Top on Timeform ratings is Sharan Lua who ran a stormer in the Yorkshire Oaks last time, almost running down Kalapana and showing herself well suited by the demands of a soft-ground mile and a half in the process.
Whether she’ll repeat that form three weeks on given the demanding race she had there under what will probably be a lesser test under quicker conditions remains to be seen, but the same horse responsible for the bizarre pace at York, Sugar Island, is also in the line up alongside stablemates Beautify and Composing, neither of whom have an obvious chance on form. Indeed, Ballydoyle’s first choice rider Ryan Moore isn’t on any of their three but Survie, a horse who is just about as good for George Boughey this year as she was her French yard previously. That said, she could manage only fourth of six in this contest last year, having finished seventh in 2024, and though she comes here perhaps revitalised by two wins in Saratoga it’s stretching things to think she might be good enough now where she wasn’t previously.
Older fillies with better claims are Tattycoram, Sunly and Friendly Soul. Tattycoram has made massive steps this season, winning the Lancashire Oaks at Newmarket by four and a half lengths from subsequent Group 1 winner Tiffany then seemed undone by soft ground behind Sparan Rua at York; Sunly has also improved a good deal this year too and has been beaten less than a length in her last two races, behind Aventure in the Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud and Calandagan and Cualificar in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, while Friendly Soul is having her first attempt at a mile and a half.
French Oaks runner-up Pink Panthera (wouldn’t want any rain), Nassau fourth Botagoz (wouldn’t want it too firm), Romantic Symphony (improving rapidly but not yet raced on anything softer then good) and Prix Saint-Alary winner and German Oaks second Lapotheose (yet to race on fast ground) are three-year-olds have running for them in a race the younger generation have just come off worst in in recent years, but if my reading of the likely conditions are correct 20/1 about TATTYCORAM each-way three places with several firms is very appealing.
The other ‘Arc trials’ have just eleven runners between them with the Prix Foy attracting just four. Before that, seven line up for the Prix Niel (16:00) with the clear pick on form being the Irish Derby winner and King George third Benevenuto Cellini who presumably has his stable-companion Montreal in as a pacemaker. Montreal is a good horse in his own right – he was third in the French Derby after all – but his best form is about 7lb behind Benvenuto Cellini’s and at a mile and a quarter too.
Take Benevenuto Cellini out of the field, however, and Montreal would be entitled to close consideration himself given he’ll likely stay the trip being by Sea The Stars if ridden wholly on his own merits, but he wouldn’t be the only one.
Both Alam and Pearled Majesty finished behind Montreal at Chantilly, with the former having a valid excuse given he was drawn in the widest stall of all whereas Pearled Majesty had a traditionally favoured inside berth, since when Alam has since finished a very close third in the Grand Prix de Paris behind Maltese Cross while Pearled Majesty has won the Prix Eugene Adam where he was able to dictate a steady pace and beat Baroud, a horse who subsequently had Montreal back in fourth when winning the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville.
Also in the line-up here too is Varandir who two starts back won the Prix Hocquart when looking a galloper and lost third to Alam in the Grand Prix only on the line. He raced much closer to the strong pace than Alam in the Grand Prix and for me he might just be open to the most improvement. Chiefland finished second in the German Derby when last seen while Zaraki won well in listed company at Deauville last time (by six lengths in a slow-motion finish) but this company is another couple of levels altogether.
It might only have four runners of which only two that count but the shoot-out between Daryz and Bay City Roller in the Prix Foy (16:35) promises to be interesting viewing. Both are unbeaten in contests where that have been five runners or fewer and while Daryz can claim the better career achievement having landed the Arc last year, Bay City Roller can boast the greater progression this year having run away with the Coronation Cup at Epsom in June. There’s no suggestion that Bay City Roller is ground dependent but it’s a fact his best two performances in Group 1 races have both come with plenty of give in the ground.
He’s a better horse now than when beaten narrowly on fast ground at this meeting a year, but his form is 5lb shy of a peak Daryz in my estimation. A defeat in Britain didn’t stop Daryz going on to better things last season and he now steps back up to a mile and a half for the first time this season after finishing third at Royal Ascot when last seen.
The Longchamp card kicks off with two two-year-old pattern races, the Prix La Rochette and the Prix d’Aumale. Both races have been won by the Christoper Head stable in three of the last four years and they took the Rochette last year with Nighttime en route to second place in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. They have the clear favourite this time around too in the shape of Avec Toi who is unbeaten and has looked a colt of substantial merit so far, winning his three starts by a combined eleven lengths which would have been considerably more had he not been eased right down in the second of them. He comes into this with a Timeform rating at least 11lb higher than his stable’s last three winners and sets a high standard.
Of the four horses who are lining up against him, Vignelli and Imperial Strike are unbeaten. The Graffard trained Vignelli hasn’t been seen since May 1st when winning readily at Saint-Cloud (had another of today’s runners The Highlight back in third) but the form looks sound enough with both second and third winning next time out. Imperial Strike is unbeaten in two races, both at Deauville, and won nicely over further than this last time out, but Avec Toi is long odds on and deservedly so.
Head won the d’Aumale with the high-class Blue Rose Cen in 2022 and he has the favourite this time around too as well in the shape of Data who has won her last two races including the Group 3 Sky Sports Racing Prix Six Perfections last time when she beat Queen Of The Day by a length and a half. That form has worked out well – both third-placed Woot Woot and sixth-placed Nicely won next time out – and she has the highest Timeform rating of the eight runners.
Interestingly, however, the one horse taking her on again from Six Perfections is Flying Spur who like Woot Woot was set a lot to do in that race and ended up running the fastest last 600m of the first four, almost a length faster than Woot Woot, and she already has a win over Data having beaten that filly convincingly at Saint-Cloud in June when Flying Spur was having her second race and Data was making her debut.
There is some British interest with Ed Bethell sending over Carlisle winner Rogue Passion but bigger dangers are likely to come from the unexposed home bunch, four of whom have won their only start so far; Anna Gloria, a rangy-looking filly, and Kalimaat represent the Fabres and they won respectively at Clairefontaine and Deauville; Malikat Al Remal also scored at Deauville while Francis Graffard’s Amusingly scored at in very smart style at Compeigne, looming up on the bridle before being pushed clear.
That last bit of form isn’t high end but the second and third have both won since and the third Peintresse is in the field again today. By No Nay Never, she looks the bet at 4/1, though I’ll be having a saver on Flying Spur if she drifts out to a big price (23/1) as she did in the Six Perfections last time.
Selection
1pt e.w. Tattycoram in 14:50 Longchamp at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
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