It’s an eclectic Darley July Cup with colts, geldings, fillies, handicappers and trip droppers of all ages set to do battle at Newmarket – Ben Linfoot investigates the data.
Several strands make for an intriguing renewal
The top four in the betting for the Darley July Cup say it all.
We have last year’s winner, Oxted, a five-year-old, bidding to become the first repeat victor of the race since Right Boy in 1959. Then there’s Starman, a four-year-old, lightly-raced and one from one this season after an impressive Group 2 win at York at the Dante meeting in May. Dragon Symbol heads the three-year-old challenge, fresh from connections losing their appeal after being demoted to second in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. And from the same generation we have Rohaan, a gelding who wasn’t allowed to take on Dragon Symbol at the Royal meeting, but was permitted to wow in the Wokingham off a mark of 112.
There is more.
Last year’s top sprinting juvenile Supremacy aims to prove he has trained on after missing Royal Ascot due to the ground. Another three-year-old Creative Force steps back to what looks his ideal trip following Jersey Stakes domination. Glen Shiel, Art Power and Garrus represent the Diamond Jubilee form in the absence of Dream Of Dreams. American raider Extravagant Kid stays on to contest this race following his King’s Stand third behind Oxted. And Chil Chil bids to become the first filly or mare to win the race since Fleeting Spirit in 2009.
We don’t know the final field just yet - but we can look through the data for a bit of context to various potential key plot lines in Saturday’s stellar Group One…
Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1)
- When: 4.35pm, Saturday July 10
- Where: Newmarket, July Course
- TV: ITV1 & Racing TV (Sky channel 426)
- Odds: Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Racecard & FREE video form
Coming from a handicap doesn’t have to be a handicap
5 wins from 90 runners at 5.56% (Percentage Rivals Beaten 40.33%) – G1 horses over 5f and 6f that ran in a handicap last time out since 2000 (GB and Ireland).
Rohaan bids to win the July Cup having won a handicap on his previous start which isn’t something too many have tried.
I could only find one who went close this century – Michael Jarvis’ Lincoln Dancer in 2000, a three-year-old who was edged out a short head by Japanese winner Agnes World on the back of winning the Sandy Lane Stakes – when it was still a handicap – at Haydock by four lengths.
Now a Group 2, Rohaan won this year’s Sandy Lane by a nose from Dragon Symbol and we all saw how that form worked out at Royal Ascot.
Rohaan dropped into handicap company and put in a blinding performance to win the Wokingham off a mark of 112 and while that five from 90 stat doesn’t inspire confidence, it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise if David Evans’ charge could join this select band on Saturday:
- LA CUCARACHA – The Barry Hills-trained and Guy Reed-owned mare set the Knavesmire alight in the summer of 2005 by winning the Sky Bet Dash off a rating of 105 just 26 days before she returned to York to land the Nunthorpe.
- GOODRICKE – An anomaly in that data set as it doesn’t include France – where this horse was second in the Prix Maurice de Gheest in the August of 2005. However, he fits the handicapper-turned-Group horse bill nicely, as he was second off a mark of 100 in that year’s International Handicap (when run at Newbury) and finished his campaign with a win in the Haydock Sprint Cup where he beat the aforementioned La Cucaracha.
- BORDERLESCOTT – The much-loved Borderlescott cut his teeth in handicaps and ended up being a dual top-level winner, with his 2008 Nunthorpe victory (at Newmarket) coming on the back of a three-quarter-length third off a rating of 110 in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood.
- ART CONNOISSEUR – A remarkable horse in that he was a dual Royal Ascot winner in the Coventry and Golden Jubilee Stakes despite barely running to within a stone of that form anywhere else. His Golden Jubilee win came the start after he finished seventh in the European Free Handicap at Newmarket off a rating of 116.
- TWILIGHT SON – Henry Candy’s horse landed the Charity Sprint Handicap at York in the June of 2015 off a mark of 94 in a renewal where Magical Memory, that summer’s Stewards’ Cup winner, was third. With the form working out Candy produced Twilight Son to win the Group One Haydock Sprint Cup 84 days later with Magical Memory back in third again.
Three is the magic number - just
Last year’s winner Oxted faces a mighty task in seeing off the younger brigade according to history.
With no horse going back-to-back in the race since Right Boy in 1959 you have to conclude that age is a key factor with 28 of the last 60 renewals being won by three-year-olds.
The 6lb weight-for-age allowance has helped the Classic generation fare best of all the age groups this century and this race really isn’t a place for old bones, with the six-year-old freak Les Arcs (2006) the only winner older than five to have won the race since the seven-year-old Shalfleet in 1938.
The three-year-olds: 8 wins in last 21 renewals from 80 representatives
Winners: Mozart, Oasis Dream, Sakhee’s Secret, Dream Ahead, Muhaarar, Harry Angel, U S Navy Flag, Ten Sovereigns
Shortest-priced losers: Landseer (7/2 4th 2002) Airwave (11/4 3rd 2003), Caravaggio (10/11 4th 2017), Advertise (3/1 2nd 2019), Golden Horde (2/1 3rd 2020).
Some July Cup greats have won the race in their Classic season from Mozart to Ten Sovereigns, but their advantage is a slim one and it has been bolstered by that age group winning three of the last four renewals.
Caravaggio would be the most high-profile loser from this age group in the race this century, due in part to his odds-on status, but the three-year-old Harry Angel did win the race that year after reversing Commonwealth Cup form with the market leader.
The four-year-olds: 7 wins in last 21 renewals from 94 representatives
Winners: Pastoral Pursuits, Fleeting Spirit, Starspangledbanner, Mayson, Lethal Force, Limato, Oxted
Shortest-priced losers: Danehurst (5/2 3rd 2002), Choisir (9/4 2nd 2003), Exceed And Excel (4/1 19th 2004), Brazen Beau (2/1 7th 2015), Blue Point (5/2 7th 2018), Sceptical (3/1 2nd 2020).
If the winner’s not three they’re usually four with Oxted adding his name to a list containing Mayson, Lethal Force and Limato as winners from that age group in the last decade.
Choisir and Blue Point would be famously in-form four-year-olds who succumbed to younger legs in this race thanks to the exploits of Oasis Dream and U S Navy Flag, respectively.
The five-year-olds: 5 wins in last 21 renewals from 60 representatives
Winners: Agnes World, Continent, Frizzante, Marchand d’Or, Slade Power
Shortest-priced losers: Scenic Blast (11/8 10th 2009), Fleeting Spirit (7/2 5th 2010), Society Rock (7/2 3rd 2012), Limato (4/1 2nd 2017).
Only Slade Power has won for the five-year-olds in the last 12 years and he was 7/4 favourite in a year (2014) where the three-year-old challenge was notably weak – Spanish raider and Guineas sixth Noozhoh Canarias was the shortest-priced 3yo contender at 9/2.
Aussie gelding Scenic Blast failed to live up to market expectations in 2009 when the filly Fleeting Spirit emphatically reversed the King’s Stand form under Tom Queally for Jeremy Noseda.
The six-year-olds: One win in last 21 renewals from 32 representatives
Winners: Les Arcs
Shortest-priced losers: Takeover Target (7/2 7th 2006), Shea Shea (3/1 4th 2013).
The seven-year-olds (and older): Zero wins in last 21 renewals from 35 representatives
Of the horses older than five only Les Arcs has won from a pool of 67 runners this century. A remarkable horse, he started his career over 10 furlongs and ran in a maiden hurdle at Cartmel two years before his July Cup success.
Age is usually factored into the odds, with beaten international sprinters Shea Shea and Takeover Target the shortest-priced older horses to have run in the race in the last 21 years.
This year’s ages:
3 – Creative Force, Dragon Symbol, Line Of Departure, Method, Rohaan, Supremacy, Thunder Moon, Miss Amulet
4 – Art Power, Lope Y Fernandez, Starman, Ventura Rebel, Final Song,
5 – Emaraaty Ana, Garrus, Oxted, Chil Chil
6 – Glorious Journey, Good Effort
7 – Glen Shiel, Summerghand
8 – Extravagant Kid
9 - Brando
Trip droppers edge out the speedsters
July Cup this century – last-time out distance
- 5f - 4/57 7.02%
- 6f - 12/185 6.49%
- 7f - 2/33 6.06%
- 8f - 3/19 15.79%
Even Les Arcs went into his July Cup win on the back of a run over six furlongs but this race is synonymous with class acts dropping back from seven furlongs and a mile with Stravinsky in 1999 a notable trendsetter in the genre.
Since then five horses have dropped back from seven furlongs and a mile to win the July Cup from 52 runners – a marginally better record than those horses who have stepped up in distance from five.
Pastoral Pursuits flopped in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot (at York) in 2005 but he won the July Cup on his next start, while Dream Ahead stepped out of Frankel’s shadow by using the St James’s Palace Stakes as a stepping stone to Newmarket glory.
Limato flitted between six and seven furlongs for much of his career, but won his July Cup following one of his rare forays over a mile and Mozart and U S Navy Flag both ‘did a Stravinsky’ for Aidan O’Brien in this race after running over seven furlongs on their previous starts.
Lope Y Fernandez could be the O’Brien trip dropper this year, for Aidan at least, on the back of his good second to Palace Pier in the Queen Anne, with son Joseph a possible to drop Thunder Moon back in distance after poor efforts in the 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes.
It’s Charlie Appleby who has the strongest seven-furlong hand, though.
Glorious Journey is building a very nice portfolio of July Course form to his name and he landed the Group 3 Criterion Stakes over seven furlongs at the track last time out, but Creative Force is a more obvious contender for the yard.
Another three-year-old gelding who was prohibited from running in the Commonwealth Cup, he kept on well to ensure Jersey Stakes success on his first go at seven but reverts to his preferred distance here (three from three over six furlongs since being gelded).