Our man has a couple of big-priced bets to consider at Haydock on Betfair Chase day including one returning from a lengthy layoff.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 19
1pt e.w. Gentleman At Arms in 2.25 Haydock at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Crosspark in 3.35 Haydock at 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, bet365)
Allen key to picking up pieces in Betfair Chase?
The winners of last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, Sky Bet Supreme, Sporting Life Arkle, Brown Advisory, County Hurdle and Festival Plate are all due to be in action this weekend and the recent rain has been something of a blessing for the vast majority in the game.
Quite what state the ground at Haydock will be come the time of the Betfair Chase (3.00) remains unknown but there isn’t due to be much – if any – more of the wet stuff to come through Saturday itself, so hopefully we’ll see A Plus Tard taking on the real mudlarks in Protektorat and multiple former winner Bristol De Mai.
If that pair get into a jumping war with the favourite from a long way out then perhaps Brendan Powell will be the one to pick his way through the debris and have the last laugh aboard Eldorado Allen but, despite hoping he can lay down a realistic marker for the King George on Boxing Day, it’s very hard to see him getting close to Henry De Bromhead’s star, who is pretty unopposable.
I’m in no mad rush to be taking on Constitution Hill or L’Homme Presse in their respective assignments at Ascot either and while the Jim Barry Wines Hurst Park Handicap Chase is a rather intriguing fresh starting point for the rerouted Edwardstone, I have struggled to find anything worthy of investment in opposition.
Having gone round and round in circles and kept returning to the idea of the Sporting Life Arkle winner getting a decent pace to chase, before outclassing Thyme White, Frero Banbou and company, I begrudgingly concluded it was another no-bet race.
Thankfully there are a couple of juicy handicaps to sift through back up at Haydock and the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle is deeply competitive as you’d expect for the money.
Get A Tonic sneaks in near the bottom and looks potentially well treated, while Charles Byrnes was unusually forward in nominating this event as the next port of call for Run For Oscar on the back of his striking Cesrewitch victory on the Flat at Newmarket well over a month ago.
Daniel King (0-4 in the UK to this point) takes off a useful 5lb and he and the Skelton mare are very much respected, though hardly being missed in the betting.
Time, Gentleman (please!)
That leads me to another formerly decent Flat stayer in GENTLEMAN AT ARMS, who was a 10/1 shot for this race at the start of the week and now looks a little too big at current odds (25/1) based on a couple of factors, including his peak form as a novice hurdler from last year.
Largely consistent and progressive throughout, one of the grey’s better efforts - perhaps crucially given the testing going - came on soft ground in February when only narrowly failing to concede 2lb to the classy (and sadly ill-fated) Elle Est Belle in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, so conditions should be absolutely fine.
The step back up to three miles also promises to suit as he signed off last term with an excellent second behind Gelino Bello in the Grade One Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree.
He was always likely to cope with this sort of trip over hurdles as he won over the best part of a mile and three-quarters on heavy ground at Newbury during his time on the level for Harry Dunlop, though you never know for sure until it’s there in black and white.
The most appealing factor this weekend, though, following his only moderate comeback run behind Peking Rose (NR here) is that Gentleman At Arms improved about 20lb for his first run over hurdles last December.
Granted, it would be unwise to expect something similar this time around but it’s not hard to imagine trainer Stuart Edmunds once again left a bit to work on fitness-wise, and it’s noteworthy the same Aintree race he ran in has thrown up a couple of subsequent winners of this race in the past (Paisley Park and Stoney Mountain).
There isn't too much pace on in this event and the front-running Gentleman At Arms, who jumped well and raced enthusiastically for a long way before looking like he needed the run at Aintree, is being overlooked. He could yet prove up to defying this mark (143) and rates a good each-way play in this.
The other one to have on side at Haydock is CROSSPARK, who is more than capable of winning the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase if bringing anything like his best form.
It’s quite a sizeable ‘if’, in fairness, and the presumably enforced 574-day layoff is why we’re able to back him at such a big price, but he's won a couple of times when fresh in his youth and it’s unlikely new trainer Nick Kent will be bringing him here short of a gallop.
It’s also noticeable that a few of these rivals look to be prepping for the Welsh Grand National whereas Crosspark only has this engagement which leads me to believe - rightly or wrongly - it’s been in the diary for a while.
The positive recent run being enjoyed by Kent (sent out two winners from just three runners over the past 10 days) also bodes well regarding this 12-year-old’s claims and the handicapper has obviously given him every chance in dropping him 6lb to 144 since he when last seen.
That most ‘recent’ run was a very creditable sixth in the 2021 bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, a season in which he’d finished second on no fewer than five occasions – three of which were off marks of 145, 148 and 150.
The 2019 Eider winner needs testing ground to be seen at his best and, unlike a couple of these rivals in Houston Texas and the mare Fontaine Collonges, Crosspark has plenty of hairs on his chest when it comes to facing up to such a brutal test of stamina.
There are risks attached, but I’d be happy to back him win-only at 16s or bigger.
Published at 1500 GMT on 18/11/22
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