Our form expert has four selections for day three of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York on Friday, featuring the Nunthorpe.
The Verdict: Friday August 21
0.5pts e.w. Start Me Up in the 13:50 York at 22/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Night Raider in the 15:35 York at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Plage De Havre in the 16:10 York at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Food For Thought in the 17:20 York at 8/1 (bet365, William Hill)
Alright on the Night in Nunthorpe
It seemed inconceivable last week during the umpteenth heatwave of the summer that we would be talking about cut in the ground on Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes day, but after rain on both Wednesday and Thursday, here we are.
The times on Thursday suggested the ground was soft and it adds another question for hot favourite Bacio to answer in the feature. For all that he was very impressive on fast ground at Royal Ascot, the Nunthorpe at York with this bit of cut is a different ball game.
I have to take him on, but I do think he’ll be key to the race whatever happens as he will blast off on the far side from stall five and, as is so often the case, a low draw on the sprint track could be the place to be.
With that in mind Karl Burke’s NIGHT RAIDER could get a perfect tow into the race from stall two, the American speedster likely to help him settle, and given the son of Dark Angel is proven on Good to Soft everything has come together for him nicely.
You do have to forgive him two below-par runs on his last two starts, but I do think there have been legitimate excuses.
At Royal Ascot he was drawn on the wrong side and was only beaten two-and-a-half lengths, so that was a good run in the King Charles III, while last time at Goodwood he was slowly away under a penalty and it clearly wasn’t his running.
Burke said afterwards he didn’t think he was right, but his very presence in the Nunthorpe suggests he has been happy with him since and there’s a chance he was just a bit rusty at Goodwood, as well, after seven weeks off.
I think we’ll see the real Night Raider on Friday, the one who looked a different character after being gelded on his first two starts of the season, his victories in the Palace House and Temple Stakes entitling him to be one of the fancied horses in this.
He ran well in last year’s race on fast ground, finishing fourth after leading until the final furlong and a half, but those early-season Group wins suggest he is a better horse this season and it could be worth remembering those performances now he’s 12/1.
The Verdict: Back NIGHT RAIDER in the 15:35 York
Life’s a beach for Balding
In the race after the Nunthorpe, the Assured Data Protection Handicap over 1m4f at 16:10, PLAGE DE HAVRE looks a good each-way bet for Andrew Balding and PJ McDonald.
This is a horse who hosed up in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock off a mark of 92 just four starts ago, the strong pace helping him to settle as he stormed through the field to show his best self, winning by four lengths.
Since then he has run on the all-weather, finished third here at York off a slower gallop than ideal and then last time the ground was too fast for him at Newmarket as he attempted to retain his Old Newton Cup title on a different track.
Dropped 3lb in two runs to a mark of 100, he gets in here carrying the number one saddlecloth and Balding is brilliant at identifying the right races for his classier horses in handicaps, his career record with top weights nearing a strike-rate of 20%.
The likely strong tempo on easier ground looks the ideal blend for Plage de Havre and it’s worth reiterating that McDonald has an excellent record for Balding, including at York, while he’s back on board this horse for the first time since their Old Newton Cup cruise.
The Verdict: Back PLAGE DE HAVRE in the 16:10 York
If you Start Me Up, I’ll never stop
The opening Sky Bet Mile Handicap for 20 three-year-olds looks tremendously difficult but a small each-way bet on Richard Spencer’s START ME UP at 22/1 is advised.
There isn’t a trainer in this race with a better strike-rate in three-year-old-only handicaps this decade than Spencer and his son of Mehmas looks underestimated by the market.
He won two from two at Chester in June, finishing well over shorter trips including on soft ground, while he has run two good races subsequently off his new mark of 84.
The way he finished in a good race at Goodwood last time suggested this first go at a mile is worth exploring and his dam was a mile winner out of a French Oaks winner so there’s stamina on that side of his pedigree.
Jockey Saffie Osborne is an excellent judge of pace in a big field and with a strong pace on she can pick her way through from the inside draw in three from the bottom of the weights.
The Verdict: Back START ME UP in the 13:50 York
Food For Thought in the finale
At the start of the week I thought William Haggas’ Silver Lake was going to be very hard to beat in the closing Sky Bet EBF Fillies’ Handicap over the extended 10 furlongs and she still might be.
After all, she was very impressive at Goodwood last time and the 9lb rise might not be enough to stop her, but the softer ground does ask a different question of her now and she remains the hot favourite.
Two starts ago she beat Ralph Beckett’s FOOD FOR THOUGHT at Salisbury, but there wasn’t much in it as the pair pulled clear and the runner-up gets a 9lb pull at the weights on Friday.
The daughter of Dubawi has gained her current rating of 84 running on quick summer ground, but she’s got a pronounced knee action that suggests she’ll be even better with a bit of give in the conditions.
The Verdict: Back FOOD FOR THOUGHT in the 17:20 York
Preview posted at 15:55 BST on 20/08/26
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