Donn McClean pores over the potential storylines ahead of this evening's Galway Plate before suggesting a bet on Bryan Cooper's mount.
It’s a later start at Galway today than is usually the case on Plate day. The thetote.com Galway Plate is off at 7.20, almost two hours later than it was last year, and almost four hours later than they were sent on their way a decade ago. It means that you can get some more work done before racing, or have a longer-than-usual lunch, or take more time to recover from yesterday’s exertions. How you choose to utilise the extra time will probably be determined by your starting point.
So here’s the Plate breakdown: Henry de Bromhead five, Willie Mullins five, six if Patricks Park gets in as first reserve; Gordon Elliott four. Jessica Harrington two, Noel Meade two if 2014 hero Road To Riches gets in, one if he doesn’t, Edward O’Grady two if The West’s Awake gets in. And the owners, Gigginstown House six, seven if (the aforementioned) Road To Riches gets in, and the caps go all the way down to grey. JP McManus four, Susannah Ricci two.
It’s going to be wet too. There is plenty of rain forecast for the day. Soft ground at the start of August is not the same as soft ground in the middle of January, admittedly, but even so, conditions are going to be testing. And Galway is deceptively stiff, for all that it is fairly tight. There is some climb from the final fence around the home turn and up to the winning line. You're going to have to see out all 22 furlongs as well as the extra half if you are going to win today’s Plate.
There are myriad potential stories in there too. Much like the Grand National, the Plate usually produces a story. Rachael Blackmore would be the story of the week if she could win it on Valseur Lido. Currently six winners clear in the 2018/19 Irish National Hunt jockeys’ championship, the Tipperary native is riding out of her skin these days, and she would be the first female rider to win Plate since Sarah Collen won it on the Jim Dreaper-trained Bold Flyer 29 years ago. Victory for Aine O’Connor on Drumcliff or for Katie O’Farrell on Alelchi Inois would generate similar headlines.
Victory for one of the Gigginstown horses would be a fourth for Gigginstown in five years, a win for one of the Henry de Bromhead horses would be a third for the trainer in four years. And back-to-back wins. A first since Ansar won his brace in 2004 and 2005 for Dermot Weld. And if Slowmotion were to win it, that would fill one of the few remaining gaps on Barry Geraghty’s CV, and it would be a Galway Plate for Joseph O’Brien, to add to his Melbourne Cup and Irish Derby and Irish Gold Cup and Galway Hurdle, all in the space of 365 days.
There’s a quintuple that is rarely done.
Slowmotion could win it too. JP McManus’ mare put up a big performance in the race last year to finish third behind Balko Des Flos and Shaneshill. She travelled well that day, and she stayed on well from the final fence. She was only beaten five and a half lengths by the winner, who went on to finish second in the Grade One Leopardstown Christmas Chase and to win the Ryanair Chase, and who is now rated 23lb higher than he was then.
Slowmotion gets to race today off a handicap mark of 142, the mark off which she raced last year.
She hasn’t really improved on last year’s performance since, but she ran well last time in the Grade Three Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary, she kept on well to take fourth place behind Joey Sasa and Wicklow Brave, and you can be sure that her trainer has had this year’s Plate in mind for a while.
She was only five when she ran so well in the race last year. She should be better equipped for the race this year as a six-year-old. We know that she can go well at Galway, she has reportedly schooled well in the blinkers that she will wear for the first time in a race today, and she will have Barry Geraghty for company. She has plenty in her favour.
That said, she has been well found in the market by now and, at a slightly greater price, Calino D'airy may represent better value.
Henry de Bromhead’s horse is also proven at Galway. He embarked on his chasing career at Ballybrit last October over two and a quarter miles, winning easily, before going back there two and a half weeks later for a novices' chase over the same course and distance, and winning well again.
He led from early that day, his jumping was very good and, while Dont Tell No One closed to three lengths by the time they reached the winning line, the winner appeared to be idling in front. He probably won with a fair bit more in hand than the bare winning margin, and the runner-up enhanced the form of that run by running a cracking race next time to finish second in the Troytown Chase off a mark of 130.
The Gigginstown horse was beaten in the Grade Two Craddockstown Chase on his next run, and he finished down the field in a competitive two-mile handicap chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival but, given a nice break by his trainer after that, he returned with a fine run to finish third behind Finian’s Oscar in the Grade One Manifesto Chase at Aintree’s Grand National meeting in April.
He didn't lead that day, Sean Flanagan was happy to allow Rene’s Girl and Cyrname get on with it, but he travelled well in third place, he jumped well and he kept on well at the end of that two-and-a-half-mile trip, after making a slight momentum-interrupting mistake at the final fence.
He finished just five lengths behind the sadly ill-fated Finian’s Oscar, who was rated 151, and he finished in front of the 150-rated pair Cyrname and Modus.
Cyrname may have gone off a little too fast that day, and Modus may not have run up to his best, but even so, a handicap rating of 145 is more than fair for Calino D’airy for his handicap chase debut.
More than that, he is only six and he has raced just five times over fences, so he has bundles of scope for progression now as a chaser. He has the potential to go beyond today’s rating.
He has never been beyond two and a half miles under Rules, but he stayed that trip well at Aintree. Also, he won his only point-to-point, he is by Anzillero, a Group One winner in Germany over a mile and a half on soft ground and Valseur Lido’s sire, and there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree.
His profile is not altogether dissimilar to the profile with which Balko Des Flos went into the race last year: a Gigginstown House-owned, Henry de Bromhead-trained French-bred six-year-old, racing off a mid-140s handicap rating.
He is two for two at Galway, he goes well on soft ground, and Bryan Cooper is a multiple Grade One-winning rider who had two winners from two rides at Wexford on Friday.
That would be a great story, too.