Matt Brocklebank, Nic Doggett and Ben Linfoot tackle five questions ahead of Tattersalls Irish Guineas Weekend at the Curragh.
Is Gstaad a banker in the Irish 2,000 Guineas?
Ben Linfoot: He has been beaten at odds-on at the Curragh before so I’d stop short at calling him a banker. A deserved favourite might be a more accurate description as there is no doubt he pulled clear with a very good 2000 Guineas winner in Bow Echo at Newmarket and with that rival not making the journey across the path is clear for him to get his own Guineas. It takes a leap of faith to think Distant Storm can make up the eight lengths from Newmarket, even accounting for possible improvement second run back in first-time cheekpieces, so perhaps Karl Burke’s Alparslan will give him most to do. He has to prove he stays, however.
Nic Doggett: I looked back through the past winners to help jog my memory, and was surprised to see just three Ballydoyle winners in the past 12 years. However, with the exception of the 2019 6/4 joint-favourite Magna Grecia, 3/1 is the shortest-priced runner Aidan O’Brien has had beaten in that time, so it’s not as if it has been a bogey race for the yard. Both Gstaad and Distant Storm were strong in the betting at HQ last month, suggesting both were very straight, so although they raced in different groups, there’s no obvious reason why the latter should find the eight lengths he needs to (despite first-time cheekpieces). Similar comments apply to Thesecretadversary and Power Blue. The only feasible alternative for me is Alparslan who, at a best price of 10/1, looks an each-way approach. On a form line through Zavateri, who the Karl Burke-trained colt beat by a length in the Greenham, he has to rate a big danger to Gstaad.
Matt Brocklebank: Well, he fared a good deal better than Aidan O’Brien’s last five principal 2000 Guineas contenders at Newmarket and while he was obviously quite handsomely put in his place by Bow Echo, Gstaad seems to have enhanced his form again first time out at three and this weekend’s Classic shouldn’t hold too many fears. Karl Burke is sounding quite bullish around Alparslan and I can see this course winner from last year potentially putting up most resistance to the Ballydoyle hot-pot. He might be the best each-way angle into the race on the back of his Greenham win.
Have you got one for the Curragh undercard on Saturday?
MB: Padraig Roche’s mare Back Down Under could be worth monitoring in the market. Heavy ground looked against her on her comeback run in March but she also reportedly showed signs of coming into season and she’s had a break since then so could bounce back before too long. She’s slipped a little in the weights, now technically 3lb lower than third in last summer’s ‘Scurry’ and she definitely has an affinity with the track here having won a couple of times at the Curragh in the past.
BL: I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Montassib for a while but we might on Saturday in the Group 2 Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes. William Haggas has a very good record when he takes one over to Ireland (nine from 34 at 26% the last five years) and the combination of a strong pace and the stiff six at the Curragh will be right up his street. His outing at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting will have done him good as well and this looks a really good spot for him ahead of Royal Ascot.
ND: Though this year’s renewal of the Greenlands Stakes looks stronger than last, it’s that race that could provide plenty of clues. James’s Delight is back to defend his crown, but he was arguably lucky to do so as Big Gossey was badly stopped in his run having travelled smoothly. Once switched, he picked up strongly and only failed by a diminishing half a length. He’s already taken the scalp of Albert Einstein this term and looks overpriced at 12s as he looks to add a 10th course win to his ledger. Despite his advancing years, a first Group success doesn’t look beyond him.
True Love v Precise in the Irish 1,000, whose team are you on?
ND: True Love. I just can’t get past the turn of foot that she produced two out at Newmarket. That sealed the race for me as much as the determination she showed once challenging for the lead itself. I know Precise is less exposed, and her Moyglare success shows that she is equally at home on the track, but True Love’s experience against the boys last season appears to have moulded her into the more finished article of the pair, at this stage of the season at least.
BL: True Love was very good in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket off a good prep but I wouldn’t be surprised to see stablemate Precise turn the tables here. She had an interrupted preparation for Newmarket and it’s well worth remembering her two-year-old form. I’d expect a big step forward from the Fillies’ Mile winner in this.
MB: I was surprised to see Precise had made her way to the head of the betting here and the old cynic in me is starting to wonder whether True Love might not be declared and saved for a Coronation Stakes clash at Royal Ascot. But hopefully they do both go to post this weekend as True Love looked a smashing filly in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. Precise was a brilliant two-year-old and now has a bit to prove but I could see her potentially turning up in the Oaks if all goes to plan this weekend.
Is Minnie Hauk vulnerable over 10 furlongs in the Tattersalls Gold Cup?
MB: I wouldn’t go quite that far but Almaqam’s presence in the field should ensure we have some sort of race to savour rather than merely a procession. Considering Minnie Hauk came with the “just ready to start back” caveat and drifted in the betting ahead of her Mooresbridge comeback, I was quite impressed with her win that day and fully expect her to land this en route to the Royal meeting where we hopefully get to see Ombudsman and Daryz take her on. Now that’s some race to hang the Ascot hat on this summer!
BL: She's such a strong stayer at 1m4f that you have to take that into consideration, but with her Mooresbridge win over 10 furlongs under her belt her class could see her through here. If she does win she might set herself up for staying at 1m2f in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot before going back out in trip later in the season and I do think she has the raw ability to pick up a Group 1 over this trip.
ND: Edward Hamilton ensured that her reappearance over this trip was a true test of stamina, which resulted in a straightforward win in the end, and I imagine similar tactics will be employed again. But if she spots a quality mile and a quarter horse like Almaqam – assuming this big individual is closer to fitness than for his reappearance last year - several lengths, then it might prove a much tougher assignment. It looks significant that he heads here rather than defend his Brigadier Gerard crown, and I think a repeat of anything close to his Champion Stakes third would see him go very close.
Who else is worth noting on Sunday’s Curragh undercard?
BL: I was at Leopardstown a few weeks ago and was really impressed with City Of Memphis in the Group 3 Mutamakina Stakes over seven furlongs. Red-hot trainer Paddy Twomey immediately nominated this Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes for the daughter of Sioux Nation and, while she clearly has natural pace, I don’t think the mile will be any problem for her.
MB: Ger Lyons won a Listed race with Prevalence’s sister Juncture and it looks like he’s got this Juddmonte-owned filly quite nicely treated off a mark of 83 on her handicap debut in the mile event at 14:45. She won her maiden at Dundalk in November and returned with a promising third over seven furlongs at this track when her inexperienced jockey appeared to stop riding prematurely. She’ll be sharper for the outing with a bit of luck and will relish the extra yardage on offer.
ND: I’m looking forward to hopefully seeing One Look back in action in the Lanwades Stud Stakes. Having been purchased by Wathnan Racing last September, she could easily have been retired after three winless runs (two of which were at Group 1 level), but connections have decided to race her on this season. This trip is as short as she wants, and perhaps this is just a warm-up for the Group 1 Pretty Polly next month, but she has a great course record, especially when fresh, and I’m sure that connections wouldn’t mind adding a confidence-boosting first Group 2 success to her ledger beforehand. With his horses still in good form, it would be another feather in the cap of the continually underestimated Paddy Twomey, too.
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