How will Ombudsman cope with a very different tactical scenario in Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse at Sandown?
That was one of the questions answered on this week’s Sporting Life Racing Podcast.
On a day when the brilliant Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner went odds-on in places for the Group One feature, the panel looked at how the Esher contest could play out.
There’s no doubt the lightly-raced four-year-old was well served by a strong gallop in Berkshire and Ben Linfoot admitted: “It could be very different on Saturday, there’s not an awful lot of pace on paper. With Ballydoyle having three potentially in there that will help and you might expect Expanded to be a pacemaker.
“Delacroix will be ridden more prominently than he was at Epsom in the Derby. If Almaqam runs, he went forward in the Brigadier Gerard but there has to be a question mark over him turning up on what’s likely to be fast ground.
“It could be different for Ombudsman, but he cut his teeth out in France last year, certainly his race at Longchamp in September was run at a slow gallop and he coped with that very well.
“He looks to be a horse who has plenty of gears. The worry would be would he settle off a slower gallop? He could be a bit keen in the early stages but that’s a minor worry. He looks the class act in the race to me, and they all have him to beat after Royal Ascot. He found so much trouble in the straight and still sprinted away from them off a strong gallop.
“Because of the patience they’ve shown he hardly has any miles on the clock and he’s very much the one to beat."
Graham Cunningham feels if he's at the same level as at Ascot he’ll take plenty of beating, but there is an 'if'.
“He’s 130 Timeform now and it’s a question of can he get close to that, repeat it or even beat it given a different tactical set-up?” he said.
“It was a really truly-run race the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and I’ve had a look at the last 20 years at horses who won that and went for the quick turnaround at Sandown.
“My Dream Boat wasn’t a flash Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner, and he was fifth of seven at 6/1 in the Eclipse. The Fugue was 5/2 favourite, having won at Ascot, but was only sixth of nine at Sandown.
“Al Kazeem did the double at 15/8 in 2013. Ouija Board won at Ascot in 2006 but got badly, badly hampered in the Eclipse so we can give her a pass.
“For the record So You Think didn’t quite win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, he was just beaten by Rewilding, but he went on to beat Workforce in the 2011 Eclipse.
“I came away from this year’s Prince Of Wales’s thinking ‘crikey I didn’t think he was that good’ and I shouldn’t knock him now, but I am questioning whether he’s going to be quite as dynamic if he tries a similar last to first swoop in a more tactical affair. That’s my concern at 6/4.”
And Ed Chamberlin says a rival camp hold the key to how this race is run.
“What will Ballydoyle do here? They made a real mess of it – and held their hands up – in the Prince Of Wales’s and what a pace collapse that was, allowing Ombudsman to overcome trouble in the straight to win as he did,” Chamberlin said.
“It strikes me Saturday will be completely different. They’ll have a plan up their sleeve and their two big guns aren’t necessarily going to want an all-out gallop so could make it very tricky to set it up for Camille Pissarro or Delacroix. They’ll be keen to make amends for Ascot."
Billy Nash also expects gentler early fractions on the front-end and questions whether Ryan Moore will be aboard Camille Pisaarro as the market seemingly expects.
“We can assume that Expanded will make the running, but I very much doubt he’ll go as hard as they did at Ascot. The pace definitely did collapse in the straight that day and I’m not going to say it flattered Ombudsman, but he was maybe shown to advantage given how the race worked out.
“The pace collapsed, he was finishing best of all, and it’s a question of whether he can back that up 17 days later having had a hard race at Ascot, let’s face it they were flat out there from the word go. It was a tough race.
“It will be interesting to see what Ballydoyle do with it, it will be interesting to see what Ryan Moore rides too.
“He picked Delacroix for the Derby and they think a fair bit of him. He’s a beautifully bred colt and I think they’d be very keen to get a middle-distance Group One into him if they could. I wouldn’t be surprised if he rode him again.
“You can put a line through his Derby run because things didn’t work out for him, he met trouble early on and never got competitive. He’s better than that but just how much better? We’re still in the dark.
“Yes, he beat Lambourn in the Ballysax but the Leopardstown Derby Trial he won next time was a bit of a farce, they went no gallop. I don’t think they’re going to want a flat-out gallop for him at Sandown and it’s probably the same for Camille Pissarro who just about got the mile-and-a-quarter in the French Derby and wouldn’t be bred to get any more than that.
“It will be really interesting, they have a pacemaker in the race, but don’t expect him to go flat out.”
So what are the alternatives if you’re not keen on Ombudsman?
“I hope Anmaat turns up,” Nash continued. “He ran a cracker at Ascot, looked to me like he was going to beat Ombudsman for a lot of the way and I’ll give him another chance at the price. I’d certainly let him run and think he has a great chance if he does show up."
Cunningham is in full agreement.
“Timeform called the ground firm in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, and he ran an absolute screamer, given that you’re running out of chances with a seven-year-old, give it a lash, have another go at Ombudsman and sit behind him and try and do him for a bit of pace with one run at the end.
“If you’re looking to take on the favourite, it’s Anmaat for me.”
Chamberlin feels Stanhope Gardens is a potential big improver for the Ralph Beckett team.
“Over the winter he was definitely the number one up the road at Kimpton and the Derby just came too soon for him. He couldn’t get him ready for Epsom after a hold-up earlier on and I think he’ll take a big leap forward from that run.
“You have Delacroix at 7/1 for the Eclipse having been miles behind him in the Derby and Stanhope Gardens at 20s and 25s. That doesn’t make sense.”
But Linfoot is in no mood to desert the favourite.
“My bet in the race is Ombudsman at odds-against or even money. I’m with him. He’s by far and away the most obvious winner for me and I’m not concerned enough abut the potential tactical scenario to oppose him.”
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