Ben Linfoot tries to unravel the Coral-Eclipse by answering a series of key questions ahead of Saturday’s Group One highlight at Sandown.
Coral-Eclipse (Group 1)
- When: 3.35pm, Saturday July 3
- Where: Sandown Park, Esher
- TV: ITV1 & Racing TV (Sky channel 426)
- Odds: Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Racecard & FREE video form
Who would benefit the most from the lack of a solid gallop?
Just four go to post in Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse and there isn’t bags of obvious early pace so tactics could play a key part here.
El Drama ran quite prominently when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester, but even he took a lead from Yibir that day which means none of Saturday’s contenders have made the running early on in their recent starts.
They could go relatively slowly for the level and if nobody switches tactics this could well play into the hands of ST MARK’S BASILICA who is a miler that gets 10 furlongs to my eyes.
He certainly doesn’t strike you as a horse that would get any further than a mile and a quarter, but it would be no surprise to see him drop back in trip given the turn of foot he has displayed on his last two starts in France.
They were on soft ground – and we’ll get onto conditions in due course – but purely from a pace point of view, going half a stride slower than par is likely to suit the son of Siyouni who looks to have gears.
Getting 10lb on the weight-for-age scale as well, his Eclipse rivals could do without handing him a further advantage in the way this all pans out.
Which horse is the form pick if we’re only taking best runs into account?
While St Mark’s Basilica’s French Classic victories come with a ‘p’ for further potential he’s not there yet and he takes on a pair of battle-hardened older horses that have been there and done it.
Mishriff is disputing favouritism with him after showing toughness and versatility to win on the Saudi Dirt and Meydan turf in a highly fruitful spring – and he beat a couple of subsequent Group One-winning Japanese mares in Chrono Genesis and Loves Only You in Dubai.
However, when it comes to isolated pieces of form it’s ADDEYBB’s Champion Stakes victory that stands out.
Last October’s Ascot success was a coming-of-age performance from Addeybb, a horse respected from afar but one who had previously come up short in top-level company on these shores.
Not so on Champions Day, when he travelled supremely well before hitting the lead with a quarter of a mile to go, developing over a two-length margin that he maintained all the way to the line.
Mishriff was well beaten, perhaps with excuses on a day John Gosden’s big guns failed to fire, but Skalleti and Magical were two very solid yardsticks in second and third respectively – and, while Aidan O’Brien’s mare is now retired, the French raider has gone three from three this season including Group One glory in the Prix d’Ispahan.
What’s the ground going to be and who will it suit?
They’ve had rain at Sandown, lots of rain, but the forecast perks up in the days leading up to the race and the drying ground is going to be against some.
From June 16 to June 21 there was 67.8mm of rain that fell at the Esher track, a further 18mm hit the course on Sunday evening and then there was another 6mm on Tuesday.
That left the ground Good to Soft (Soft in places) on Wednesday, but a dry, warm and sunny forecast from here on in means we’re looking at conditions drying towards Good and such a prospect saw Wonderful Tonight taken out at the final declaration stage.
Thankfully, Addeybb stood his ground with trainer William Haggas saying: “You can’t keep practising out on the Heath and in the nets and not get out in the middle.”
There is no doubt, judging by his past form, that Addeybb would have a better chance of hitting his rivals for six if the ground rode Soft, as he has posted better performances when there has been significant cut in the ground.
That’s not to say he can’t win on slightly better conditions, but he might well have to run better than he ever has before on such ground to prevail in this contest against a rival like MISHRIFF who is perfectly at home on a sounder surface.
His only flop came on soft ground on Champions Day, but he’s unbeaten when ‘Good’ has been in the ground description so the weather does tip the balance in favour of the John & Thady Gosden-trained horse.
St Mark’s Basilica didn’t travel over to England for the 2000 Guineas as O’Brien hunted softer ground, which he duly got at Longchamp and Chantilly, and the only time he’s encountered ‘Good’ was when third behind Thunder Moon in last year’s National Stakes.
El Drama should be fine on the ground and his chance has enhanced a little given Addeybb and St Mark’s Basilica look inconvenienced.
Which horse will be most at home at Sandown?
With one course winner amongst the field we only know for sure that ADDEYBB has the game to thrive at the right-handed, galloping and testing track that is Sandown.
He’s one from one at the track thanks to his convincing victory in the 2018 bet365 Mile, his two-and-three-quarter length win over Stormy Antarctic coming on the back of his success in the Lincoln as he seamlessly bridged the gap from handicap to pattern class.
That mile pace could be vital on Saturday. He stays 10 furlongs well but he did start out as a miler and the speed he has is a weapon over this distance as he has shown on numerous occasions.
At Sandown the ability to travel strongly in a prominent position is vital and the fact his career-best effort came at Ascot – another right-handed, testing and galloping track – bodes well indeed. No wonder Haggas has had this race in mind for some time.
Interestingly, his sire, Pivotal, does very well with his progeny at Sandown. He wouldn’t be outpointing Galileo in most lists, but he does at Sandown with 47 wins from 250 at 18.80% an excellent return.
The Siyouni data is a much smaller sample (four wins from 28 at 14.29%) but I would put forward a slight question mark over the suitability of Sandown for his St Mark’s Basilica.
He’s got no issues going right-handed as his victories at Chantilly and Longchamp prove, but the testing finish is a new thing for him to deal with over this trip and against a stubborn rival like Addeybb it could well be a deciding factor.
Watching that Prix du Jockey Club (see YouTube video at the top of the article) he swished his tail when feeling the whip late on and for all that was brief and he won easily, it does make you wonder how he'll react if he's under the pump for a more sustained period against Mishriff and Addeybb.
Mishriff’s adaptability is a big positive for him, given he won over nine furlongs on Dirt and 12 furlongs on turf in February and March, but he too has it to prove up the hill given he’s done all his winning on flat tracks.
Considering all the above and the market, who is the bet in the Coral-Eclipse?
- Mishriff – 6/4
- St Mark’s Basilica – 13/8
- Addeybb – 7/2
- El Drama – 33/1
- Best odds available at time of publication 1100BST 01/07/2021
Race fitness could play into the hands of St Mark’s Basilica but it’s doubtful that will be a factor given both Mishriff and ADDEYBB have gone very well fresh after similar (two to three month) breaks before and preference is for Haggas’ Champion Stakes hero at the prices.
Mishriff could well be the answer given his talent and versatility but there’s very little between himself and Addeybb on form and the price discrepancy seems to be down to ground conditions.
Granted, Addeybb would prefer it softer and he would probably be disputing favouritism on much easier turf, but as long as no ‘firm’ creeps into the description he should be fine and his form on a sounder surface – particularly at Royal Ascot and Ayr last year – is not far off his very best.
Crucially, drying conditions look against the star three-year-old St Mark’s Basilica, as well, while the testing finish – of no concern to Addeybb – will also ask a new question of the son of Siyouni, with similar comments applying to Mishriff.
El Drama has more serious questions to answer - on the simple grounds of class - than the top three in the betting. And in an article full of questions, it’s Addeybb that looks the answer to what is always a tricky puzzle - even in a renewal that has attracted just the four runners.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing columnists
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.