Value Bet tips: Friday, December 11
1pt e.w. Siruh Du Lac in 1.50 Cheltenham at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Topofthecotswolds in 1.50 Cheltenham at 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Current Mood in 2.25 Cheltenham at 20/1 (bet365)
Loads to like about Siruh Du Lac
The classy yet luckless SIRUH DU LAC has unfinished business when it comes to middle-distance handicap chases at Cheltenham and Saturday’s Racing Post Gold Cup might just be the day it all clicks.
Formerly with Nick Williams, for whom the gelding won six times over fences, featuring the 2019 Festival Plate over this course and distance, he failed to complete the course in his three subsequent starts - all of which were around here.
They include last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup in which he was making his debut for David Pipe and unseated Tom Scudamore at the very first fence, injuring himself in the process.
What looked like quite a well-hatched plan was effectively over before it had started but the Pipe team are notoriously patient and, after a year off the track, this time around the horse has been given a prep run over hurdles at the Showcase meeting in October.
Tackling three miles for the first time in public in that novice event, Siruh Du Lac showed all of his old sparkle and travelled as well - if not better - as anything in the field right down to the second-last flight, after which he appeared to blow up and wasn’t unduly punished by Scudamore.
There must be a good chance he badly needed the run, with a clear round no doubt objective number one, and he goes back chasing off what looks a really dangerous mark of 143.
That’s 7lb lower than for last year’s Paddy Power (sent off 12/1) and just 2lb higher than for his most recent success at the Festival three seasons ago. I’d be amazed if he can’t defy his revised rating at some stage in the current campaign and, given the strength of his chase record on the New Course at Cheltenham (form figures 11F), he’s well worth a bet at the odds.
There are dangerous alternatives everywhere you look, not least last month’s Paddy Power third Lalor, who now goes with the cheekpieces back on, and I can’t rule out a big run from Cepage either as this is surely more his trip than three miles.
Twiston-Davies doing minimum weight a fair clue
At the other end of the ratings, Farinet, Beakstown and TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS all look likely spoilers and with the latter available at such a huge price, I’m keen to back him each-way too.
Like Siruh Du Lac, Topofthecotswolds is expected to be ridden close to the early action and while that’s not quite as positive a factor as it can be on the Old Course around here, I’d still much rather be staying out of trouble to the fore rather than anchored near the back in races of this nature.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, who was among the winners here on Friday, won this race with a horse rated in the low-130s eight years ago and though Double Ross was relatively lightly raced over fences, I do think the seven-year-old Topofthecotswolds still has a bit of room for improvement having only returned to the bigger obstacles - after a spell back hurdling - earlier this year.
The trainer has evidently been keen to get lots of jumping practice into him over the summer and he hasn’t necessarily held his form, but I was impressed with how he shaped when second to potential handicap blot Palmers Hill at Wetherby in November, and he appeared to finish with something still in the tank that day (free replay in full below).
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Last month’s early Newbury unseat can be completely ignored as a rival jumped right across him, giving Sam Twiston-Davies (sweats down to his minimum weight this Saturday) no chance, and it’s not hard to argue he’d be a few points shorter in the market if coming here straight from that encouraging effort in West Yorkshire.
Given he was rated 142 after bolting up from a perch of 132 in a handicap chase at Stratford in September 2019, he’s also very much on the right side of the assessor if able to kick on again, and underfoot conditions should be absolutely ideal provided the forecast light showers don’t develop into anything significantly heavier.
Read the Mood in Albert Bartlett trial
Later on the Cheltenham card, I’m not wild about taking on Trapista from an initial mark of 131 in the Close Brothers Mares’ Handicap Hurdle, but I will have a small play on the Grade Two Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.
We’ve seen short-priced favourites turned over in the past four editions of this race and Blazing Khal is clearly going to head the market after his ready success at the November meeting.
However, it’s interesting to see Gelino Bello and CURRENT MOOD taking him on again and I’m convinced we’ll see Evan Williams’ mare to much better effect on this more galloping track, and on 5lb better terms with the winner.
The Old Course, coupled with good ground, was plainly too much of a speed test for her here last time, when making the running at a really slow tempo and ultimately being swept aside to finish seven and a half lengths in third to Blazing Khal.
Stepping up three furlongs in trip is going to help her considerably, especially on a slightly easier racing surface, and while she’s clearly got to raise her game again to properly trouble the top two, I’m not at all comfortable with the massive discrepancy between them in price and have to back the outsider accordingly.
Hopefully Adam Wedge has still been learning what he has under him and really sets his stall out to turn this into a genuine test of stamina as that'll really suit her in time.
The closest I came to having a bet at Doncaster was Mr Muldoon in the concluding bet365 Handicap Chase, but a lot does seem to depend on how he takes to the application of first-time blinkers.
He looked really quite useful on occasions when switched to fences last season, not least when winning by almost 20 lengths at Sedgefield in March, and if he’s back in that sort of form then he’s not badly treated off just 2lb higher.
However, he’s had two really poor efforts already this season and, given he’s generally been at his best when fresh from a break in the past, I can’t quite take the chance on the headgear sparking a revival despite the double-figure prices being dangled in this winnable contest.
Published at 1530 GMT on 10/12/21
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