Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to Sunday's action from Cheltenham featuring the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.
Value Bet tips: Sunday November 13
1pt e.w. N’Golo in 2.55 Cheltenham at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365, Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Current Mood in 2.55 Cheltenham at 14/1 (General) - Declared a NON-RUNNER at 07:39 GMT
The Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle is the big betting race at Cheltenham on Sunday and there are some interesting horses available at inflated prices on account of Irish hot-pots Dads Lad and Thousand Tears dominating the market.
Dads Lad should probably be favourite in theory, given he’s able to run off a 7lb lower mark than when winning over fences at the Showcase meeting here last month.
Granted, the Willie Mullins horse hasn’t looked quite as proficient as a hurdler as he has in recent chase starts, but good ground clearly suits and it’ll be interesting to see how he deals with the big-field, potentially crowded scenario that can unfold in this event.
With that in mind, it’s not hard to see both Dads Lad and Thousand Tears having a wall of horses in front of them heading towards the final bend and I’ll roll the dice in the hope one or two of the more forwardly-placed runners might be able to get away from the chasing pack.
First up is the ex-Willie Mullins-trained N’GOLO, who should be right on the sharp end under Gavin Sheehan – without doubt one of the best front-running jockeys in the weighing room.
This horse won three times for Mullins and was beaten just two lengths by Ballyadam in a Fairyhouse Grade One as a novice so we know he’s got the raw talent and it was good to see him exploit his reduced mark in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock when last seen in May.
He found loads for pressure, having raced prominently throughout, that day and ended up hammering the reopposing Severance, who has since come back with a creditable third at Ffos Las when racing from 4lb out of the weights. Severance was two and a quarter lengths behind Effernock Fizz there, the same horse who went on to make Dads Lad pull out all the stops in the aforementioned handicap chase at Cheltenham, which ties in fairly well.
N’Golo’s previous run reads particularly strongly, having been beaten a length when trying to give Hurricane Ali the thick end of two stone - at Haydock again. Hurricane Ali has won three more handicaps since then and is now rated 17lb higher in the handicap, while the Haydock third East Street won on his next start, and the fourth Finisk River has remarkably won four subsequent handicaps and gone up 13lb.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and N’Golo clearly shouldn’t have been 28/1 for the Swinton, but I do feel he’s being overlooked again having only gone up 8lb.
The racecard now states he’s having his first start for a new trainer in Paddy Neville, but it’s worth pointing out he’s been assistant trainer to Ann Duffield for a while now – before being granted a licence of his own – and it’s highly likely nothing has appreciably changed in terms of N’Golo’s day-to-day routine from last season.
He’d have preferred a spot of rain but remains an each-way play at 33/1.
The one I don’t want to be beaten by is CURRENT MOOD, who I’d imagine will be ridden a lot more aggressively than when third on her seasonal comeback run at Ffos Las.
Seemingly in need of the run, she was handled with care by Isabel Williams and made some eyecatching late headway to finish third in what could be an informative race – winner The Changing Man certainly looked a long way ahead of the handicapper and I suspect it’ll work out quite well.
Multiple point winner Current Mood is clearly quite a strong stayer and was tried as far as three miles as a novice hurdler last year but speed still looked her strong suit and her record over two miles is a very tidy 2-3, featuring a front-running, four and a half-length defeat of Kingofthewest, who immediately franked the form by winning at Exeter on his next start.
Rated as high as 131 when running against Blazing Khal in the Grade Two Albert Bartlett trial here last December, she sneaks in here with a mark of 127 and remains with serious potential off that sort of mark.
Crucially, the mare is also perfectly happy on good ground so there’s plenty to like with the Evan Williams yard presumably working back from this meeting all along.
Published at 1500 GMT on 12/11/22
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