Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 20
1pt win Doctor Duffy in 2.25 Haydock at 16/1 (bet365)
1pt win Diego Du Charmil in 3.15 Ascot at 9/1 (BetVictor)
1pt win Joke Dancer in 3.35 Haydock at 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)
Who will win the Betfair Chase?
A really interesting edition of the Betfair Chase takes centre stage on Saturday and for all the potential of Royale Pagaille and Next Destination, Sharjah reminded everyone last weekend that there’s no real substitute for top-class horses who have been there and done it at the highest level, and Haydock’s feature is most likely going to centre around Bristol De Mai and A Plus Tard.
On traditional Haydock ground, there’s little doubt Bristol De Mai would be a bit shorter in the betting than the general 7/2 on offer and even on the advertised good to soft it will take a brave punter to dive in with both feet when it comes to Henry De Bromhead’s market leader.
A Plus Tard, still only seven, has obviously got the best form in the book and I’m not overly concerned that he was beaten as 1/2 favourite first time out last season, as well as when 5/4 favourite on seasonal debut the year before that.
But having a bet on the best race of the day for that very reason alone will never be a sensible idea so, despite the dead eight going to post, I’ll happily pass up the opportunity of finding an each-way angle.
Prior to the big race, DOCTOR DUFFY looks the one to be on in the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle.
He resumed at Thurles last month with a staying-on second behind the high-class and versatile Stratum, initially outpaced and appearing to blow up on the turn for home before running on again approaching the last flight.
The visor he wore to great effect late last summer – left off for his comeback – goes back on this weekend and he looks a typically well-treated, Irish-trained handicap hurdler.
That good run of form last year featured chase wins at Kilbeggan (3m1f) and Ballinrobe (2m7f), followed by a fine third behind Cabaret Queen in the Kerry National when sent off the 11/2 market leader. He was competing off an Irish chase mark of 145 on the latter occasion and gets in here with a BHA rating of 139 so is clearly on the right side of the assessor if building on his reappearance run.
It’s not like he’s a weaker hurdler either, having won three times and filled the runner-up spot on five other occasions, from just 15 starts in this sphere, and trainer Charles Byrnes has been in good form including winning a Graded novice event at Cheltenham last weekend.
The one fear I’d have is that he can occasionally find himself getting behind runners and a slow gallop here could cause some issues if he’s at the back of the pack early on, but Haydock’s long home straight provides encouragement on that score and if he’s close enough I’d expect him to be motoring late on ground that’s going to be lively enough for a few of these.
The one to beat could be fellow Irish challenger Rightplacerightime, who is having his first run over hurdles for Emmet Mullins after three outings over fences this autumn.
The British handicappers aren’t taking any chances with a mark of 125 (17lb above his current Irish rating) but, after what happened with The Shunter in the same silks last season, the potential for improvement for his new yard is pretty obvious.
Of the other recent winners, it’s cosy Wetherby scorer Flight Deck who appeals most after going up just 3lb, but it’s hard to be sure the cheekpieces worn for the first time there will have quite the same effect in this stronger event, and the double-figure prices about him were snapped up on Friday anyway.
What is the best bet at Haydock?
Last weekend’s Cheltenham winner Strictlyadancer looks plenty short enough in the My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap Chase.
He’s racked up wins at the Showcase and November meetings at Prestbury Park but he wasn’t quite so effective around here earlier in the year and could be one of those stayers who really enjoys passing tiring horses.
On relatively dry ground for the time of year, and with a weak pace forecast according to Timeform, there’s a pretty good chance JOKE DANCER will get his own way out in front and I like the idea of him using his natural speed to kill some of these rivals off.
Granted, he’s never raced over this far and he’s no certainty to ever see out a strongly-run three miles, especially on a stiff track, but that’s not the scenario we’re looking at here as it will hopefully develop into a relative sprint up the straight.
From a handicapping perspective, Sue Smith’s horse is back on the mark (134) from which he won at Warwick last January, as well as at Wetherby 12 months ago, and he’s also generally taken a run or two to reach peak fitness so the comeback fifth behind Good Boy Bobby last month was entitled to have been needed.
That was a Listed event and, with a bit less on his plate here, he’s well worth a bet to discover whether the extended three miles might be within range.
Can Paul Nicholls strike again at Ascot?
There are some talented animals lurking in the six-runner Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase at Ascot, not least Defi Du Seuil, and it’s not hard to envisage him taking the field apart if back to his best.
It’s a significant enough ‘if’ to dissuade any financial interest at this point but if the money really comes for Lostintranslation and/or Master Tommytucker, then Philip Hobbs’ horse could swiftly become a genuine betting proposition. I’ll struggle to resist him if touching 4/1 at any point.
Instead I’ll recommend a bet in the Gerard Bertrand Hurst Park Handicap Chase, in which the top three in the market all have a question or two to answer.
The case for Sky Pirate is arguably the most compelling given he’s 8lb better off with reopposing Cheltenham winner Before Midnight, but preference is to side with Paul Nicholls’ DIEGO DU CHARMIL.
It’s two years since he jumped a fence in public but he was runner-up to stablemate Capeland over Saturday’s course and distance off a mark of 156 when last seen in this sphere, having previously beaten Betfair Chase contender Clondaw Castle (also this C&D) by half a length off 150.
He’s back on 150 this weekend and Lorcan Williams, who was on board for both of those efforts at this track in 2019, returns to the saddle following the horse's low-key reappearance run in the Welsh Champion Hurdle (Handicap) at Ffos Las last month.
His owners, who also run Dolos, live locally so it looks a race connections have clearly targeted and given the trainer’s fine record in such contests here over the years, on top of the ground being absolutely ideal, Diego Du Charmil is a cracking bet.
Published at 1355 GMT on 19/11/21
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