Our form expert is over +100pts in profit for the year after his seventh consecutive month of profit in September and he has four selections on Saturday.
The Verdict: Saturday October 4
1pt win Nardra in 1.15 Ascot at 8/1 (General)
2pts win Lady Of Spain in 2.40 Newmarket at 11/2 (General)
1pt win Mirabeau in 3.35 Ascot at 14/1 (bet365, 12/1 General)
1pt win Santorini Star in 4.00 Longchamp at 11/2 (General)
Lady can be champ at Newmarket
It might be Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe weekend in Paris but the domestic action on Saturday is good as well and the Group 1 BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket has shaped up nicely considering a few of these had options in France.
Betting-wise it looks a good race to have a go in, too, as I’m not sure Cinderella’s Dream will appreciate the easing of the ground, while Fallen Angel didn’t look to handle the course at all well when she was a beaten favourite in last year’s 1000 Guineas.
They are the proven Group 1 fillies in the field, but Roger Varian's LADY IN SPAIN could be a top-level winner-in-waiting and she is much preferred at the prices against those rivals that have already been there and done it.
Unbeaten in four starts coming into her four-year-old season, the lightly-raced horse finally reappeared in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown on August 30 – her first start in 255 days and turf debut.
With plenty of questions to answer she was sent off 14/1, but belied those odds with a dominant performance in a deep field for the grade, a strong gallop resulting in a good time with the front two four lengths clear of the rest.
You could only take positives from the performance and while we do sometimes see horses bounce second time back after an absence it’s not hard to envisage Lady Of Spain improving again with that run under her belt.
I loved how she finished her race strongly and thought she beat Blue Bolt quite cosily in the end, while she clearly enjoyed the soft ground, so any further worsening of conditions at Newmarket should not bother her in the slightest.
Two of the last four winners of the Atalanta, Saffron Beach and Tamfana, came out of that race and won the Sun Chariot and the Sandown contest looks to have been the perfect launchpad for Lady Of Spain’s own Group 1 tilt.
She might want a bit further in time, but that Atalanta went some way to proving she has the boot for a Group 1 mile and with a strong pace looking likely she can finish off her race well once again.
The Verdict: Back LADY OF SPAIN in the 2.40 Newmarket
There’d better be a Mirabeau at Ascot
Over at Ascot the day’s feature handicap is the BetMGM Challenge Cup with 18 going to post and it has been raining with more forecast.
On softer ground the far side could be the place to be and on the most testing ground he has faced all year MIRABEAU could come to the fore with the emphasis on stamina.
Dominic Ffrench Davis’ horse ran over 10 furlongs three times between April and July but he has improved for dropping in trip after a few months off as he showed over this course and distance when third in the Schweppes (see free video replay, below) in September.
I liked the way he shaped that day where he was beaten less than two lengths by Native Warrior and with a 4lb pull with that rival here he could easily turn the tables.
A son of Territories who is two from two on soft ground, he looked in good heart again at Newbury last time where he was eased down late on after suffering interference inside the final furlong.
Cieren Fallon takes over in the saddle and with a few front runners to tow him into proceedings, in the shape of Balmacara and Yanifer, a bold bid is expected from the three-year-old.
The Verdict: Back MIRABEAU in the 3.35 Ascot
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Haggas set for October-fest
It could be a good day for Fallon and earlier on at Ascot I like the look of his mount NARDRA for William Haggas in the Listed BetMGM British EBF October Stakes.
Haggas has won this race three times in the last eight years with all of those fillies improving for encountering softer ground.
Night Of Thunder filly Nardra looks another cut from the same cloth as she absolutely hosed up on soft ground on her sole start at two and things haven’t gone her way in two starts so far this campaign.
Firstly, she looked rusty and was bumped about a bit when fifth in the Nell Gwyn and secondly she didn’t look to handle fast ground when beaten at 1/3 at Leicester in July.
Haggas has given her plenty of time since then and with the rain falling she might well significantly improve on her career best in this as fillies from the same yard have done in this contest previously.
The Verdict: Back NARDRA in the 1.15 Ascot
Santorini to Star in Royallieu
Haggas is a creature of habit and he knows exactly what is required to win the Qatar Prix de Royallieu having won the Longchamp Group 1 with Sea La Rosa and Sea Silk Road in 2022 and 2023.
He might win it this year as well with SANTORINI STAR who is a thriving daughter of Golden Horn for owners Tony Bloom and Ian McAleavy, and she looks primed to lay down a bold bid.
Notwithstanding the fact that she is improving rapidly with two career-best efforts on her last two starts, she also looks well equipped to cope with the demands of this race by virtue of her proven stamina.
A winner over two miles at York in August, she has serious staying power and won quite snugly in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time where she showed great tenacity to get the better of Consent after a sustained duel.
All of her main rivals have to prove themselves at the trip here, but Tom Marquand knows full well he’s on a proven stayer and that could prove to be the defining factor.
The Verdict: Back SANTORINI STAR in the 4.00 Longchamp
Preview posted at 1400 BST on 03/10/25
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.