Our form expert tipped a 15/2 winner in his last Verdict column and he has three selections for Betfred Oaks day at Epsom on Friday.
The Verdict: Friday June 6
1pt win Formal in 1.30 Epsom at 7/1 (General)
1pt win Botanical in 3.15 Epsom at 9/2 (bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill)
1pt e.w. Revoir in 4.00 Epsom at 10/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
Say hello to Revoir in the Oaks
The key horse in the Betfred Oaks at Epsom on Friday is Charlie Appleby’s Desert Flower, the unbeaten 1000 Guineas winner well clear on form after a perfect five from five start to her career.
If she stays the mile and a half it’s likely she’ll win, but there’s enough doubt there to have an each-way bet against her in what otherwise looks a wide-open renewal of the Oaks.
There are glimmers of hope in her pedigree and she relaxes well over a mile, so there’s a chance she gets home, but her sire Night Of Thunder is a much stronger influence from a mile to 10 furlongs and at odds of 6/4 I want to take a punt against her.
The Ballydoyle fillies all have the potential to improve now they tackle a 1m4f championship race, but none of them have proven form that knock the eye out and they are tight enough in the betting, so I’m hoping this could be one of those rare years where Aidan O’Brien doesn’t claim the trophy.
Guineas fourth Elwateen is another with a chance if she stays, but the filly that really sticks out a mile as a cast-iron stayer at the trip is Ralph Beckett’s REVOIR and I want her on my side at double-figure odds.
Beckett started the season with a handful of potential Oaks fillies in his quest for a third win in the race, but none of Chantilly Lace, Smoken, Tattycoram and That’s Amore put their hands up in the trials, unlike Revoir who quickly became the stable’s sole dart in the fillies’ Classic.
That was after she ran a cracker in the Listed Childwickbury Stud Fillies’ Trial at Newbury on May 17, going down by a short head to the race-fit Qilin Queen after going off a relatively unfancied 10/1.
She showed signs of greenness but stayed on really well over the mile and a quarter, shaping every inch like she’ll thrive over 1m4f at Epsom.
By the French Derby winner Study Of Man, whose progeny tend to stay really well, from a family Beckett knows inside out (the dam is related to Beckett’s first Oaks winner, Look Here, and Scope, who won the G1 Prix Royal-Oak for him over two miles), serious improvement is expected at the trip from Revoir and she’ll love every drop of rain that falls.
She has a remarkably similar profile to Look Here, as she also won her sole start over a mile at two before being narrowly beaten in her trial for the same owner, and it’s not out of the question that lightning strikes twice 17 years on.
The Verdict: Back REVOIR in the 4.00 Epsom
Formal bet in the opener
Giavellotto could give Calandagan a right race in the Betfred Coronation Cup if they go a good gallop but he wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much and I’ll leave that race alone with plenty of other betting opportunities on the card.
In the opening Listed Nyetimber Surrey Stakes over seven furlongs Cheveley Park’s FORMAL makes plenty of appeal for Andrew Balding with her sights slightly lowered.
Indeed, she was amongst the 1000 Guineas entries after making the switch from Sir Michael Stoute’s to Kingsclere and that was no fancy call after the start she made as a two-year-old when winning at Newbury and Leicester.
Well beaten in the Rockfel when sent off 7/4, she returned in the Fred Darling back at Newbury on stable debut and she shaped well, one of the last off the bridle before a weak finishing effort resulted in a midfield finish.
That was very much an educational run for both horse and trainer, Balding running her in a hood which he’s now whipped off and he’s very good at using that headgear as a training aid, his ‘first-time hood/next run no headgear’ stats reading a healthy 10 wins from 47 at 21.28%, to a level-stakes profit of +£27.98 to a £1 stake.
Formal’s dam Veracious ran well here in Group 3 company and her sire, Dubawi, is the leading stallion at Epsom this century (32 wins from 138 at 23.19%), for all the chat that he is so far winless in the Derby.
That gives plenty of hope she’ll take to the unique course and the 7/1 looks a fair bet.
The Verdict: Back FORMAL in the 1.30 Epsom
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Botanical to bloom for Boughey
Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has a tremendous record at Epsom (12 wins from 37 at 32%) and he’s won the Betfred Nifty 50 Handicap over 10 furlongs with Ajman King, Royal Champion and Bolster in the last seven years.
Immediately his BOTANICAL is of interest, the son of Lope De Vega well proven in this type of race having finished a super second to Enfjaar in the John Smith’s Cup at York last July.
That was evidence he’s capable off a big mark in this type of race and this is his first go in handicap company since then having run well in three Listed events.
Now with George Boughey, who also has winning experience in this race thanks to Cadillac in 2023, he’s been teed up for this after running under five lengths behind Dancing Gemini at Doncaster over a mile before he was beaten a similar distance by Military Order at Kempton on the polytrack.
Back on turf in handicap company, over 1m2f, with Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle and first-time cheekpieces applied, a big run is expected.
The Verdict: Back BOTANICAL in the 3.15 Epsom
Preview posted at 1310 BST on 05/06/25
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