The Antepost Value Bet winners this year include Ashtown Lad (16/1) in the Becher, Tuesday (11/1) at the Breeders' Cup and Desert Crown (25/1) in the Derby - check out the latest preview.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Ascot, December 17
1pt win Monviel in Betfair Exchange Trophy at 14/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, 12/1 General)
1pt win Bobhopeornohope in Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at 14/1 (bet365, 12/1 General)
The Howden Long Walk Hurdle meeting takes centre stage in Britain next weekend and with it come two of Ascot’s biggest betting races this side of Christmas.
One of which - namely the Betfair Exchange Trophy - features Not So Sleepy (x2) and Tritonic, the winners of the race for the past three years between them, but there’s always plenty of young blood further down the weights in these races and a few lights that are yet to fully emerge on the Saturday handicap scene.
As a five-year-old, second-season novice, Pikar definitely falls into that bracket and it’s worth recalling it was this race (the then-Ladbroke) back in 2013 in which Dan and Harry Skelton effectively started out on their steady rise to the top after winning with a thriving Willow’s Saviour.
The Skeltons are just about the first names punters turn to for such races nowadays, so there’s no shock this one tops the early betting having been kept fresh after beating subsequent Haydock winner Hullnback by five lengths at Chepstow towards the end of October.
Pikar wasn’t entirely disgraced behind Jonbon on just his third start over hurdles last season, having got to within a length of Knappers Hill first time out, and the fact he’s been nudged up just 5lb to a mark of 130 potentially still leaves him with plenty in hand.
Skelton could be mod-handed here if desired as he’s also entered Skycutter (25/1), Too Friendly (25/1), L’Eau Du Sud (25/1) and Playful Saint (20/1), who looked a shade unfortunate to bump into Love Envoi at Sandown last weekend, but Pikar is the obvious blot on the handicap and is priced up accordingly at no bigger than 9/2.
He can’t get a whole lot shorter than that, though, and I’d much rather side with one with the scope to be cut in the market, with the Philip Hobbs-trained MONVIEL appealing at this stage.
He ran pretty well when eighth to Suprise Package in desperate conditions on his handicap debut in the Imperial Cup back in March, but looked to have improved – almost out of recognition – when bolting up from Shanroe over this course and distance last month.
Ridden far more prominently than at Sandown, the grey jumped neatly in a share of the lead and found a decent change of gear when asked to quicken into the straight heading for the second-last. He had it sewn up from the back of the last and was value for more than the eight and a half-length winning margin (full replay below).
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The handicapper has clearly had a say in bumping him up 10lb, but it could easily have been a full stone given the manner in which he did it and his new mark of 130 – the same as Pikar who doesn’t have any handicap (or Ascot for that matter) experience - will bring him in nicely towards the foot of the weights for this.
The handicap Monviel won en route has unsurprisingly been a decent springboard for the Betfair Exchange over the years too, Not So Sleepy winning it before his first success in this (2019), and 2020 winner Buzz finding just one too good in the big one a couple of years ago.
Monviel is the only entry from the 2015 dead-heat-winning Hobbs yard (Sternrubin), it’s the horse’s only engagement at the time of writing and he’ll go on any ground having now won on heavy (maiden hurdle) and good to soft (last month). There is loads to like at 14/1.
The Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase is the other appealing antepost race and – shock horror – we have another fascinating entry from the Skelton camp in the shape of Shan Blue.
Unfortunately probably best know for crashing out of the Charlie Hall Chase when looking to have the race at his mercy on seasonal debut last season, it shouldn’t be overlooked that he won the Grade One Kauto Star as a novice on Boxing Day in 2020.
Things clearly haven’t gone to plan since that last career success but he ran perfectly well when second to Sam Brown on his belated handicap debut at Aintree in the spring, and having him fresh and well for a valuable prize like this would be very typical of his trainer.
I do slightly fear he’ll continue to fall between that rock and hard place of high-class handicapper and proper G1 animal, however, so can look elsewhere with bookmakers not taking many chances at a general 10/1 about him.
Quick Wave would have to be respected if coming here instead of the Welsh Grand National and trainer Venetia Williams also has Haydock winner Fontaine Collonges as well as likely top-weight Fanion D’Estruval, but at the prices I’m with BOBHOPEORNOHOPE after his promising first look around this course last month.
Like loads of other Kim Bailey runners, this horse has seemingly been kept to right-handed tracks whenever possible and he was a progressive staying novice once cheekpieces were added last term, winning at Market Rasen and Ludlow before signing off with a short-head defeat at the latter track at the end of March.
He missed an intended run at Cheltenham’s November meeting but resumed a week later at Ascot when hassled for the lead and eventually finishing third behind Larry and Smarty Wild, who were both held up early on and benefitted from the way the race was teed up.
Bobhopeornohope was sticking on well enough at the finish, hinting that he’d be fitter for the comeback (took a couple of runs to reach his peak last year), and he’s been eased a pound in the weights too which can only help.
Bailey has yet to have a runner in this race which is slightly surprising given his impressive record with chasers at Ascot (32-116 at 28%, +69.31 level-stakes profit), but the stable is going well and look to have a leading chance with this unexposed seven-year-old.
Published at 1430 GMT on 10/12/22
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