Following a busy couple of weeks in the long-range betting market for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Matt Brocklebank tackles the big autumn spectacle and has a 14/1 selection.
Antepost Value Bet Tips: Sunday October 5
1pt win Daryz in Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 14/1 (General)
When a trainer gets on a roll like Francis Graffard is enjoying this year it often pays to ride the wave as a punter and his three-year-old colt DARYZ is one to have on side early ahead of the 2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Calandagan’s second 2025 Group 1 triumph in the King George at Ascot last weekend provided the red-hot trainer with a career-best sixth top-level success of the campaign, following on from Zarigana, Candelari, Gezora and Woodshauna, and the best could yet still be to come as Graffard seeks a breakthrough in France’s biggest race of all this autumn.
The gelding Calandagan would be a short price to prevail himself if he were allowed to run, but in that one’s absence the yard still has seven horses engaged in the Arc, including Zarigana and Gezora, but it’s the unbeaten Daryz who stands out at this stage.
There are plenty more big races to be won and lost in the meantime, but it’s not hard to argue he could find his way to the head of the betting if he maintains the same sort of trajectory en route to October 5.
By Sea The Stars, out of a Group 1-winning dam, the selection is closely related to a bunch of pattern-race winners including Dariyan, who landed the Prix Ganay in 2016. Importantly, Dariyan, together with several other stakes-winning siblings, also had quality form over a mile and a half and this is where the immense potential lies with Daryz, who was unraced at two and has rapidly emerged as the brightest of prospects in four starts at (or around) 10-furlongs this spring and summer.
His first three outings all came at Longchamp, which clearly bodes well, and although holding an entry in the Juddmonte International at York, it’s almost certain he’ll be kept at home this year and given a more traditional Arc prep, with the Prix Niel back at Longchamp in September expected to be the first time we see Daryz over the longer distance.
Given his pedigree, I’d be amazed if this horse doesn’t improve considerably for a step up in trip, while he’s already a winner on ground ranging from good through to soft, although he’s yet to encounter really deep conditions.
That would be a slight worry as very testing ground would blunt his most impressive weapon – a sparkling turn of foot – but I reckon it’s factored into the price, which only looks likely to get shorter over the next couple of months.
Admittedly, the bare form of his three-quarter-length defeat of Bay City Roller in the G2 Prix Eugene Adam last time needs improving on by at least 10-12lb in order to be competitive, but it’s worth rewatching a few times as they went an absolute crawl through the early stages, and Daryz ultimately quickened stylishly when asked to pick up by Mickael Barzalona.
Like his great sire, who won the Arc in 2009, it appears he only does enough when getting to the front and his best days are very much ahead of him, with connections billing Daryz as a Group 1 winner in the making. When you consider the talent at Graffard’s disposal, this year above all others, you’ve got to take that seriously and he’s just the sort of push-button horse who gets me genuinely excited about the Arc.
He had achieved more by the August of his maiden campaign, but there are a few similarities with Ace Impact, who came from left-field to win the Arc a couple of years back after not making the track at two.
The King George form should clearly be respected, Kalpana splitting two of the best older horses around in Calandagan and Rebel’s Romance, and seemingly bound for Longchamp via a penalty-kick in the September Stakes at Kempton, a Group 3 she won with little fuss last September prior to her coming-of-age performance at Ascot on Champions Day.
But the general 7/1 about Kalpana makes very little appeal at this point and I’d be inclined to agree with Graeme North, whose Watch And Learn column post-Ascot highlighted the over-reaction in pushing Coronation Cup winner Jan Brueghel out to 33/1 for the Arc on the back of his poor run.
I have a couple of issues with him, though, the first being that he’s surely a different horse altogether going left-handed. He looked ungainly at the Curragh on seasonal debut in April and Ascot was a shocker in the first-time cheekpieces which will surely be dispensed with wherever we see him next.
The other obvious problem when it comes to Aidan O’Brien and the Arc is that there are almost too many options to bet antepost, especially in light of Whirl’s latest success in the Nassau Stakes this week. She’s obviously good and there’s not much between her and Oaks conqueror Minnie Hauk, who reportedly takes on Estrange next in the Yorkshire Oaks later in the month.
Both very talented, then, but there have only been four three-year-old Arc-winning fillies since 1982 (13 in total dating back to Pearl Cap in 1931) and we’re in the realms of Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Enable there. I’m not yet convinced Minnie Hauk or Whirl is quite in that calibre and the latter’s latest success was wholly unsatisfactory given the flag start and atrocious conditions.
O’Brien has won the race just a couple of times all told and has drawn a blank since Found struck as a four-year-old in 2016, which leaves me wondering whether it’s considered much of a priority at Ballydoyle these days.
Lambourn (needs supplementing, like the aforementioned fillies), Los Angeles, Delacroix, Camille Pissaro and the forgotten horse Twain are also among the others still in the mix, while it’s assumed Illinois will remain over staying trips but O’Brien has dropped the odd slugger down in distance for the Arc over the years so you couldn’t completely rule Illinois out of taking up his engagement.
Last year’s second Aventure is a contender again if the ground is heavy and the same owners obviously have Sosie to call upon too, though the jury is out with him to some extent on the back of his Coral-Eclipse blowout, when not in love with the quickest ground he’d encountered.
But I like my Arc horse to have a bit of swagger, that fine blend of speed and stamina, and Daryz could be a perfect five from five going into this year’s race. Given his trainer’s growing momentum and that Longchamp experience in the bag, I find it hard to believe he’ll be anything like the current 14/1 on the day.
Published at 1300 BST on 03/08/25
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