Matt Brocklebank continued his fine run of form with a 16/1 winner last weekend and now has three tips for day one at Aintree including a 40/1 shot representing Nicky Henderson.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 116pts profit.
- Last year's winners included Desert Crown in the Derby at 25/1 and Noble Yeats at 50/1, while this year he's tipped Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1 and Saturday winner Tiger Jet at 16/1.
Value Bet tips: Thursday, April 13
1pt e.w. Pawapuri in 2.20 Aintree at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Conflated in 2.55 Aintree at 7/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Hasankey in 4.40 Aintree at 14/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4) - general 12/1 also fine
A cracking day’s sport in store at Aintree and while appealing betting opportunities are in relatively short supply on day one of the Randox Grand National Festival, a few stand out at the odds.
The small-field Grade 1s generally get short shrift in this column but I won’t be letting CONFLATED go unbacked around 7/1 in the Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase.
It’s a super race if they all bring their A-game but that looks a bit of longshot in itself, with A Plus Tard having a rough time of things this season, Shishkin not proven at the trip (also goes without the tongue-tie worn at Ascot and in the Ryanair) and Bravemansgame heading back here with a rather uninspiring course record of 0-2.
The latter brings the best recent staying form to the table but Conflated ran a massive race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup too and would have finished a good deal closer to Paul Nicholls’ runner-up had he not had his passage blocked and been forced to switch on the run to the second-last fence.
Conflated fell at that same obstacle in last year’s Ryanair before coming to Aintree and running a career best when a one-length second behind Clan Des Obeaux and, on the back of another light campaign this time around, it’s easy to see him holding his form. Put it this way, he must have bounced out of the Festival particularly well as Gordon Elliott was talking about Punchestown in the immediate aftermath on Gold Cup day.
Ahoy Senor, so impressive at this fixture for the past two years, is the other to consider at a fair price as he could get things his own way out in front, but he’s still something of a work in progress when it comes to his jumping technique, and with all due respect to the champion jockey, it’s quite a big ask for Brian Hughes and this horse to fully hit it off at the first time of asking in a race as good as this.
I can’t deny there’s a small temptation to delve into the ‘betting without Constitution Hill’ market in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle, where Sharjah makes some appeal up to two and a half miles for the first time in his life.
He’ll be ridden chilly by Patrick Mullins – not just in a bid to get the new trip – and he surely achieved something similar to the bare form of Zanahiyr’s Champion Hurdle effort when a fine fourth under top weight in the County Hurdle last month.
There’s not quite enough juice in Sky Bet’s 7/2 to lure me in at this stage, though, and earlier on I’m having an each-way dart against hot-favourite Zenta in the Jewson Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle.
Willie Mullins’ mare ran a blinder in third in the Triumph Hurdle, where her jumping seemed to improve enormously from the first Irish effort when relatively scruffy in victory at Fairyhouse in February, and anything like a repeat performance should make her hard to beat.
There’s no question it’ll be really tough for the boys to successfully concede her 7lb, but I’m drawn to another mare in Nicky Henderson’s seemingly unfancied PAWAPURI.
She cost current connections 105,000 guineas out of the yard of William Haggas, for whom she won a Flat handicap off 80 at Kempton in October, and was easy enough to back when making her hurdling debut in Kempton’s Adonis around six weeks ago.
The end result there doesn’t read brilliantly as she was beaten over 16 lengths by the reopposing Nusret, with Perseus Way also ahead of her, but another look at the replay shows she ran much better than the bare form.
Too keen in Nico De Boinville’s hands early on, Pawapuri suddenly found herself right on the sharp end after the fall of Sarsons Risk which hampered a number of others in the process. She was then forced a bit wide when starting the turn towards the straight but was still second on levelling for home before the early exuberance began to take its toll.
Henderson, who has done very well with another of Golden Horn’s jumping progeny in First Street, has won this race three times in the past with Binocular, We Have A Dream and Pentland Hills, while owners Sullivan Bloodstock caused an upset when 16/1 chance All Yours (Paul Nicholls) won it in 2015 so I’m surprised to see this unexposed horse available at 40/1.
The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase doesn’t look a brilliant edition of the race.
Loads of these are badly handicapped and I’d have the four Irish horses high up on that particular list, including last year’s second Dancing On My Own who somehow finds himself on a 3lb higher mark this term.
Douglas Talking is the big improver and stands out a mile in terms of potential for further improvement, but his price crashed again when Global Citizen – another prominent racer – was taken out on Wednesday, punters seemingly expecting him to get his own way on the lead, and I reckon he’s one to take on up significantly in class.
Dan Skelton’s pair, who bookend the weights – namely Third Time Lucki and Hatcher – are on very reasonable marks and both could go well, while Donald McCain’s Mackenberg has slipped back to his successful rating from Doncaster in November and looked on track again when third there last month.
However, the each-way value is with HASANKEY who is 4lb better off with Mackenberg for a head defeat at Ayr back in October.
He’s been a cracking little horse for trainer Laura Morgan and the key thing is that he really does thrive on his racing which makes me think he’ll kick on again from the back-to-form second to a well-treated Red Rookie at Warwick just a fortnight ago.
He was the only one to vaguely threaten the winner that day and he gets another chance off the same mark on ground he’s going to love – in fact, even more rain might have been welcome.
Hasankey was seventh off a 2lb higher perch than this in last year’s Grand Annual at Cheltenham, when bidding to complete a four-timer, and while things have clearly got tougher since, the Ayr effort showed he’s still not handicapped out of things and the big field and decent gallop around this flat track should play to his strong-travelling tendencies. He looks a rock-solid proposition to run his race.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1530 BST on 12/04/23
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org