Timeform's detailed ‘Run to Form’ metrics reveal that this July is not only the worst month on recent record for trainer Aidan O’Brien, but that the current Flat season is the worst for the Ballydoyle handler since that metric was introduced by the firm in 2012.
O’Brien’s present record of just three wins from his last 48 runners does tell part of the story but data garnered from Timeform’s ‘Run To Form’ metric points to the worst downturn in form for the yard since the 2020 season which was impacted by Covid.
That form will be a concern ahead of Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini’s (124p) run in Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, with the three-year-old potentially also set to be joined by stablemates Minnie Hauk (127), Lambourn and Action.
At the Qatar Goodwood Festival next week, O’Brien is expected to field high-profile Group 1 contenders such as Scandinavia (127), Gstaad (124) and Diamond Necklace (116).
Timeform’s ‘Run To Form’ metric compares a horse’s pre-race rating to the rating achieved, meaning that factors such as a horse’s consistency and trainer form can be assessed. It can be a much better gauge of a horse, trainer, or jockey than strike-rate as it factors in much more than a simple result.
Timeform’s Senior Analyst Kieran Clark said: “With Aidan O’Brien’s ‘Run to Form’ percentage for the season currently at 54, it’s the lowest by at least five percent since we started publishing the figures.
“This is obviously a concern with major targets on the horizon for some of his stable stars in the next week and it’ll be interesting to see how those to have already run this month fare next time, particularly if the form of the yard has improved by then."
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