It's Betfred Guineas weekend at Newmarket and Simon Holt has his eye on an Irish challenger in the colts' Classic on Saturday.
Every March, during the Cheltenham Festival, the great Irish horsewoman Jessica Harrington boards with Nicky Henderson at Seven Barrows. The two trainers have enjoyed a long friendship and one imagines they share a bit of information, and maybe a few confidences too, over the four days.
Henderson is Britain's leading trainer at the Festival but Mrs Harrington is no stranger to success there either after the iconic and hugely popular victories of Moscow Flyer and Sizing John’s Gold Cup win, among others. She has also handled some smart Flat horses, notably the top-class Alpha Centauri, and may now have another as, one day at Cheltenham, Henderson revealed: “Jessie’s going to win the Guineas!"
The horse in question is Green Impact who won two of his three starts last season, including a defeat of Aidan O’Brien's Derby contender Delacroix at Leopardstown last September.
The runner-up boosted that performance when making a winning reappearance in the Ballysax Stakes.
Apart from his form and the fact that the son of Wootton Bassett is trained by someone really special - a top-class event rider before she turned to training racehorses - Green Impact boasts plenty of positives, including his sire, his age, experience and preparation, ahead of Saturday's Betfred 2000 Guineas.
Wootton Bassett is becoming increasingly influential and was responsible for seven of the 17 five-day declarations, and now three of the 11-runner line-up. Among the stallion's success stories so far are Almanzor, King Of Steel, Bucanero Fuerte and Saturday non-runners Henri Matisse and Twain yet he fetched just £46,000 as a yearling and does not boast a sparkling pedigree.
Now he commands a covering fee of 300,000 euros.
You may think it strange to say that, in a race confined to three-year-olds, Green Impact could have an age advantage but he was a January 18 foal and is quite a bit older than some of the others. Joseph O'Brien's National Stakes winner Scorthy Champ, for example, was born on May 9 and, if not officially, is still just a two-year-old.
For a race which is vitally important as a potential stallion-maker, the 2000 Guineas comes very early in a racehorse's life and it seems a bit crazy to be running horses at such a young age in perhaps the biggest and most important race of their careers.
According to the weight-for-age scale, these horses won't be fully mature until well into next year.
Different rates of precocity dictate how much experience they can bring to Newmarket but the results of the last 15 years suggest that to be battle-hardened is a real positive. 13 winners in the period were having either their fourth or fifth career start and only Makfi (2010) and Camelot won on their third racecourse appearances.
Given the difficult terrain of the Rowley Mile which is renowned for its destabilising 'dip' approaching the final furlong, it is perhaps not surprising that the streetwise may have an advantage.
There is also the question of whether it is better to go for the Guineas first time out or with a prep run. Here there is a strong bias towards seasonal debutants who have won 10 of the last 15, so proving that trainers are well capable of readying one at home rather than go for a trial.
On Saturday, Green Impact will be running for the fourth time on his seasonal debut.
Wary of impressive trial winner Gold
Britain's two main Guineas trials - the Craven and the Greenham Stakes - have developed a poor record for providing winners of the big race.
Since 1970, there have been five Craven winners who have followed up in the Guineas, but the last was Haafhd in 2004.
The Greenham has produced just two winners in that time (Wollow and Frankel), though the brilliant 2014 winner Kingman looked an unlucky loser behind Night Of Thunder at Newmarket where he had nothing to race with on the far side.
Kingman had beaten NIght Of Thunder in the Greenham and is the sire of this week's market leader Field Of Gold who takes on the task of trying to be the first Craven winner to follow up in 21 years.
Just over two weeks ago, this attractive grey swept to a three-and-a-half length victory over the re-opposing Wimbledon Hawkeye, and his trainer John Gosden (along with son Thady) must have high hopes of winning the 2000 Guineas for the first time.
In contrast to Gosden's duck, Aidan O'Brien has won the race on a record-breaking ten occasions but, uncharacteristically, has been on a losing run since Magna Grecia landed the spoils in 2019. All ten winners were having their first start of the season and only Expanded will bid to continue that trend following the defection of the much-fancied Twain earlier in the week.
Twain had filled the familiar role of Ballydoyle's hype horse through the winter having won his maiden and the Group One Criterium International in the space of nine days last October.
O'Brien described that achievement as "very unusual" but, on the other hand, he started 28/1 at Leopardstown and the race at Saint-Cloud is not working out. The colt will now be re-routed to the Irish Guineas.
The trainer has also described Expanded (by Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare) as "unusual" as the colt won his maiden by a neck at The Curragh early last October before being beaten by the same margin in the Dewhurst just seven days later.
Shadow Of Light was Expanded's narrow conqueror that day on soft ground having previously won the Middle Park Stakes from O'Brien's Whistlejacket over just six furlongs. On pedigree, there is a chance that the tables could be turned on Saturday over an extra furlong but, on the other hand, Expanded lacks experience.
Moreover, Godolphin number one rider William Buick has spurned Shadow Of Light (now ridden by Mickael Barzalona) in favour of the wide-margin Jumeirah 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court, the subject of a midweek market move. This is a lovely colt but, for all the good impression he made at Meydan, it is questionable what he beat.
O'Brien and Godolphin will always be a threat to all in the Classics but Harrington knows how to win big races too.
In a Racing Post interview a few weeks ago, the veteran trainer described Green Impact, the mount of Shane Foley this weekend, as "big and strong", "uncomplicated", "well balanced", "has done well from two to three", "can quicken off a fast pace" and added "nothing fazes him".
The trends also point in his favour and, at double-figure odds, what more do you want?
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