The first Sunday of the NFL season is finally here and excitement levels are at an all-time high, with full crowds returning to stadiums. Week One is always an unpredictable minefield but our resident tipster Ross Williams is back and ready to guide you through the festivities of opening weekend.
NFL betting tips: Week One
2pts San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) to beat Detroit Lions at 10/11 (General)
2pts Green Bay Packers (-3.5) to beat New Orleans Saints at 10/11 (General)
1pt Denver Broncos (-1.5) to beat New York Giants & over 43.5 total match points at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) to score a touchdown at 11/4 (Paddy Power)
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions
Road teams are a feature of my Week One fancies and the first of these is the San Francisco 49ers – an outfit primed for a resurgence in 2021.
With the likes of George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Raheem Mostert all raring to go, the Niners are the freshest they’ve been since Super Bowl LIV, and that’s before even mentioning their healthy quarterback room, featuring starter Jimmy Garoppolo and the dynamic Trey Lance waiting in the wings.
All the offseason focus in the NFC West has been on the Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco will be taking it personally. The 49ers were battered and bruised last year, yet still managed to claw their way to six wins, which is testament to how good this team can be.
In Detroit, they have a gift of a Week One matchup. Although the game will be played at Ford Field, I’d expect SAN FRANCISCO to win this one comfortably, and likely by double figures - with the -7.5 HANDICAP an inviting 10/11.
The Lions are at square one of their rebuilding process and they simply don’t have the personnel on defence to handle San Fran’s explosive running-back committee. Detroit shipped almost 135 rushing yards per game last season, and the problem hasn’t been addressed in a way that suggests we’ll see major changes on Sunday.
The Niners should get a lead early, and with Lions running back D’Andre Swift banged up and unlikely to carry his usual workload, the NFC North outfit simply won’t have the firepower to catch up.
Jared Goff will be keen to impress on his first start for his new team, but he doesn’t have the weapons he boasted in Los Angeles any more, and he’ll be in a world of trouble if he doesn’t get the ball out early with the likes of Bosa baring down on him all afternoon.
Expect more spills than thrills from the former first overall pick.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Much like the Lions, the New Orleans Saints are staring down the barrel of a long and potentially painful rebuild.
The post-Drew Brees era was always going to be difficult, but the Saints doubled down by committing themselves to salary cap hell in 2020, as they launched one final assault on a championship.
It wasn’t to be for New Orleans and, since their playoff exit, Brees has swapped his helmet for a microphone and the Saints front office has spent an entire offseason releasing starters and generally clearing house.
Jameis Winston is now the man at the helm, but the task ahead of him is massive. The former Tampa Bay QB has undoubted ability, but he’s always been partial to errors and the lack of talent around him in the Saints offence is a grave concern.
Marquez Callaway enters Week One as the #1 receiver on the depth chart – a talented player, but not close to the level of the top-tier receivers Winston has thrown to in the past.
Alvin Kamara is the one existing difference-maker in the starting unit and, make no mistake, he is sensational on his day. However, he is now tasked with carrying an entire franchise on his back, and that’s an awful lot of black and gold for one man to handle.
The Saints’ task in Week One is an almighty one, and a game that Aaron Rodgers will be relishing. The Packers quarterback had the most uncertain of offseasons, but he’s now committed to Green Bay for 2021 at the very least and he has the air of a man hell-bent on turning those two previous defeats in the NFC Championship game into a Super Bowl appearance.
Green Bay have retained much of the team that went deep into the playoffs last season, while also picking up the returning Randall Cobb in an effort to get the old band back together. There’s no question that the reigning MVP and the Packers will be strong again in ’21, and they should be far too good for this depleted Saints team.
The -3.5 GREEN BAY HANDICAP appears extremely generous, and I suspect the Packers would be giving up way more points if the Saints didn’t still carry the reputation of their name, especially considering the fact that this isn’t a true home game for New Orleans.
Due to the devastation caused by Hurricane Ida, the game will take place in the open-air of Jacksonville, which only serves to improve Green Bay’s cause.
Denver Broncos @ New York Giants
Had the Giants being playing anyone else this weekend, I would have probably made this a stay-away game. Emotions will be high at MetLife Stadium on Sunday as New York pays tribute to the thousands that lost their lives on 9/11, almost 20 years to the day.
The Giants should undoubtedly feed off the energy of the occasion and Daniel Jones – a quarterback who needs a successful season more than most – will be praying his teammates give him the best possible platform on a day that demands victory.
All eyes will be on him now the franchise has invested around him, bringing in the likes of Kenny Golladay on big-money contracts.
However, the fact that the Giants welcome Denver on Sunday has me very interested in this game.
Many players would crumble in such an emotional environment on the road, but there may not be a cooler quarterback in the NFL than Teddy Bridgewater when he’s behind enemy lines.
After a spell in Carolina, he made his way to Denver this offseason and made short work of stealing the starting job from Drew Lock, which means he can put his staggering road record to the test immediately in Week One.
Bridgewater is an incredible 21-3 against the spread as a starting NFL quarterback in away games and if that’s not enough to sway you, this Denver team might be the best he’s had the pleasure of leading.
Defensively, the Broncos look superb after some shrewd summer dealings and a fruitful NFL Draft and, on the offensive side of the ball, Bridgewater has an arsenal of receiving weapons that are set to take the league by storm.
Second-year players Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler both showed flashes in 2020 and they will be joined by the returning Courtland Sutton, a receiver who shone two years ago before missing last season through injury.
I believe DENVER BRONCOS (-1.5) will have enough to condemn the Giants to their fifth-straight Week One defeat and I like the offensive abilities of both teams too much to ignore the OVER/UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS market. The line is the joint-lowest across all 16 games this week - with Bridgewater and Jones battling it out with their new toys, I fancy it to be smashed.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
It’s the worst game of the weekend on paper, but hear me out. There is at least one reason to keep an eye on this AFC South basement battle on Sunday evening.
Although most of the pre-game storylines will focus on Houston’s car crash offseason, the murky Deshaun Watson situation and their likelihood of receiving the proverbial wooden spoon, it shouldn’t be forgotten that this match-up features the NFL debut of 2021’s first-overall draft pick, Trevor Lawrence.
Widely touted as the best college prospect since Andrew Luck, Lawrence is everything you could possibly want in a modern-day quarterback. The 2019 National Champion has size, smarts, throwing ability and quickness in abundance, and it’s the latter that I’m particularly interested in.
The Jaguars’ bright new hope moves incredibly well for a man of his stature and he used that particular attribute frequently in college, scoring 18 rushing touchdowns during his three years with the Clemson Tigers.
The spotlight will be on how well Lawrence throws the ball on Sunday. But, as the Texans tire in the second half and start giving the Jags more opportunities in the red zone, I fully expect him to open his legs and test a torrid Houston defence on the edges, in a race he should win so TREVOR LAWRENCE TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN looks good at 11/4 with Paddy Power.
NFL Week One best bets
- San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) to beat Detroit Lions at 10/11 (General)
- Green Bay Packers (-3.5) to beat New Orleans Saints at 10/11 (General)
- Denver Broncos (-1.5) to beat New York Giants & over 43.5 total match points at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
- Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) to score a touchdown at 11/4 (Paddy Power)
Odds correct at 14:30 BST (10/09/21)
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- AFC East: Bill or Bills?
- NFC South: Brady's Bunch set the standard
- NFC North: All about Aaron
- Stafford key for NFC West glory?
- What's changed in the NFC East?
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