The first phase of the 2022 World Cup is the group stage. Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to go group by group, selecting his best bets.
Using Infogol's xG model and probabilities, this article will aim to provide a verdict for who is most likely to win their group and progress to the quarter-finals, but also if there are any value bets based on the prices available.
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Football betting tips: World Cup 2022 group betting tips
5pts Belgium to win Group F at 8/11 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Spain to win Group E at evens (BetVictor)
2pts Ecuador to qualify from Group A at 11/10 (General)
2pts USA to qualify from Group B at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
2pts Switzerland to qualify from Group G at 21/20 (Betfred)
1pt Denmark to win Group D at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Netherlands, Belgium and Brazil to all win their groups at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Readers of my regular 'Who to back' group stage previews will know that I generally go group to group picking out the best single bets. For the World Cup, I will be doing similar, but will also throw in a value treble using the same methods.
The reasoning for the teams in the treble will be explained as we go through the groups.
Group A
Host nation Qatar feature in Group A and kick the tournament off on November 20, but they are rightly rank outsiders.
Generally backable at around the 14/1 mark to win the group, the Infogol model suggests they should be closer to 27/1.
THE NETHERLANDS are correct favourites to top the pool at a best price of 8/13 (1.62), and the Dutch are the first team in the TREBLE given the model calculates they have a 69% chance of WINNING THE GROUP, implied odds of 1.45.
Senegal and Ecuador are expected to be the two teams battling it out for the runners-up spot, and in contrast to the market, the model gives the nod to the South Americans.
ECUADOR qualified from a competitive continent, and did so while posting a solid defensive process (1.01 xGA per game). AFCON champions Senegal are also known for being resolute, but the gap between the two teams in the market looks too big, especially now star man Sadio Mane is potentially ruled out for the African side.
Infogol makes Ecuador the favourite of the two sides TO QUALIFY, giving them a 53% (1.87) chance, so the best price of 11/10 (2.10) represents a slice of value in what will be a tight head-to-head contest.
Group B
England headline Group B, and the Three Lions are the correct favourites to advance as winners.
Gareth Southgate's side have shortened a tad over the past few weeks to 4/9 (1.44), meaning they just miss out on the value acca, with Infogol making them 69% (1.45) to top the group.
There is value to be had in Group B, though, and it comes in the shape of the USA TO QUALIFY.
It looks likely that second spot in the group will go to either the US or Wales, and the Infogol model has a stronger preference for the States.
The USA have a 55% (1.80 - 4/5) chance of advancing according to calculations compared to Wales' 37% (2.74 - 7/4), so the 11/10 available for the former is a value price.
Iran are the outsiders, with just a 19% chance of qualifying.
Group C
Argentina, my outright selection to win the whole thing, should find life fairly straightforward in Group C, but they don't represent value to top the pool.
And neither do Poland nor Mexico. The market can't split the pair, both between 5/6 and even money, with the model making Poland narrow favourites with a 51% chance of progressing compared to Mexico's 49%.
The Poles were a bet a few weeks ago when 11/10, but there isn't enough value in the even money now to suggest a bet, while odds-on quotes for Mexico to qualify should be avoided.
Saudi Arabia are expected to find life tough in this group.
Group D
Reigning champions France are the favourites to win Group D with the market, priced around 1/2 (1.50 - 66.7%), but that seems too short given their main opponents.
Infogol makes Les Bleus a 1.63 (6/10 - 61%) chance to top the pool, with the value instead lying with their biggest challengers DENMARK TO WIN THE GROUP.
The Euro 2020 semi-finalists can be backed at 3/1 (4.0 - 25%) to cause an upset and finish above the French, but given the other group opponents (Tunisia and Australia), it could be a case of the head-to-head between the top seeds deciding the group winner.
Alternatively, it could be the dominance of victory against the outsiders that separates them should they draw when they face, and the consistency and continuity of the Danes gives them an edge on that front.
Recent meetings between Denmark and France have gone the way of the Nordic side too, so taking a chance at a big price makes a lot of sense.
By Infogol's calculations, the Danes should be priced at 19/10 (2.92), having a 34% chance of topping Group D.
Group E
We have another group where two teams look head and shoulders better than the other two, this time it's Spain and Germany.
There is a 94% chance that the group winner is one of the European pair, and it's SPAIN who the model likes to WIN THE GROUP and who represent a value bet.
Even money (2.0 - 50%) is available on the market, and Infogol makes them a 10/11 (1.91 - 52%) chance.
Luis Enrique's side impressed at Euro 2020 in reaching the semi-finals, playing some swashbuckling attacking football, while group rivals Germany still appear to be in transition under coach Hansi Flick.
The Germans are a best price of 6/5 (2.20) to top the standings, but Infogol has them closer to 7/5 (2.39 - 42%).
Group E is made up of Japan, who did get out of the group at the 2018 World Cup, and Costa Rica, who won their group in 2014, but the model gives them just an 18% and 13% chance respectively of qualifying this time around.
Group F
BELGIUM, the third place finishers in the 2018 World Cup, lead the betting in Group F, and the Red Devils are a bet to WIN THE GROUP according to the model.
Roberto Martinez has a wealth of experience in his side, but also an abundance of quality in midfield and forward areas.
They are the definition of a 'flat track bully', making a habit out of dominating qualifying and group-stage campaigns before coming unstuck against the better sides.
That means the 8/11 (1.73 - 58%) best price on offer should be snapped up in a group made up of an ageing Croatia, an unproven Morocco and an inexperienced Canada.
Infogol gives the Belgians a 66% (1.51 - 1/2) chance of finishing top of the pool, so Martinez's men represent solid value, and they are the second team to enter into the TREBLE.
Fellow Europeans Croatia are fancied to progress alongside Belgium, Infogol giving them a 62% chance of making it out of the group, while Canada have the fourth highest chance of all teams in the competition of being eliminated in the group stage.
Group G
Pre-tournament favourites BRAZIL headline what appears to be a deep Group G, with the Selecao priced at 4/9 (1.44 - 69%) to top proceedings, though Infogol suggests they should be shorter, giving Neymar and co a 72% (2/5 - 1.39) chance of winning the pool.
That's good enough for me to make them the third team to make up the TREBLE alongside the Netherlands and Belgium. Sky Bet have given us a boosted price of 7/2 for the treble, with the best price generally being 5/2. The same bet is as short as 19/10 elsewhere.
Serbia and Switzerland both qualified ahead of big European nations to get to the World Cup, with the Serbs out-dueling 2016 Euro winners Portugal and the Swiss finishing above Euro 2020 champs Italy.
Both are to be respected, but given the experience of the Swiss at major tournaments, and the impressive nature of results post Vladimir Petkovic, SWITZERLAND TO QUALIFY from the group rates as a bet.
They are available at a best price of 21/20 (2.05 - 49%), and the Infogol model makes them a near 3/4 shot (56% - 1.78), meaning they represent good value.
It is likely that qualification will be decided in the head-to-head contest between Switzerland and Serbia in matchday three, with Cameroon below the standard of their three group competitors.
Group H
Portugal head the market in Group H at 8/11 to finish top, though they do look a vulnerable favourite, with a competitive looking Uruguay side in second at 21/10.
Those two look as though they could prove too strong for South Korea and Ghana.
My case for the Uruguayans having a good tournament has been made in my outright preview, and I think the gulf in quality between the South Americans and their lesser opponents in Group H is greater than the odds suggest.
South Korea are a team who are improving and should be respected, but don't have the same level of quality as Uruguay, while Ghana have developed a few good players in recent years that could make them interesting but, again, this Uruguay team has the potential to go far in this competition.
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