Football betting tips: Carabao Cup & EFL Trophy
19:00 – EFL Trophy Goals Acca
0.5pt Over 3.5 goals 5-fold in Chesterfield v Man City U21, Leyton Orient vs Arsenal U21, Swindon vs Crystal Palace U21, Wycombe vs Chelsea U21 & York vs Newcastle U21 at 49/1 (Betfred)
19:30 – Peterborough vs Barnsley
3pts Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (General)
1pt Over 3.5 goals at 2/1 (General)
0.5pt Over 4.5 goals at 5/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
19:45 – West Ham vs Fulham
2pts West Ham to win at 21/10 (General)
20:00 – Ipswich vs Arsenal
2pts Arsenal to win to nil at 29/20 (William Hill)
20:00 – Reading vs Brentford
2pts Callum Wilson to score anytime at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Wilson to score 2+ goals at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Wilson to score 3+ goals at 25/1 (bet365)
EFL Trophy Over 3.5 goals 5-fold
- Chesterfield v Man City U21
- Leyton Orient vs Arsenal U21
- Swindon vs Crystal Palace U21
- Wycombe vs Chelsea U21
- York vs Newcastle U21
*Every game kicks-off on Tuesday, 19:00 BST
The EFL Trophy is the place to be for goals, especially when the games involve the much maligned U21’s teams.
All five of Tuesday’s matchups consist of League One or League Two club - who I don't think really wants be there - against a Premier League’s youth team and the 'contests' are played out against the backdrop of an empty stadium.
At a shade under 50/1 with Betfred, backing the OVER 3.5 GOALS FIVEFOLD is worth half a point.
Five of the seven games in this competition this term have had at least four goals with a total of 35 netted.
Peterborough vs Barnsley
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Only Northampton conceded more goals in League One than Barnsley last season and the Reds kept five clean sheets in all competitions - two of which came against Tuesday’s opponents.
Daniel Stendel looked like he’d solved those defensive issues as his side only conceded two goals across their opening three games, but they have recently regressed, playing their part in five goal heavy games.
There have been 5-4-3-6-3 goals across those fixtures so at a general price of 4/5, backing OVER 2.5 GOALS appeals. It’s a rare occasion where I think it’s worth a punt on OVER 3.5 GOALS and OVER 4.5 GOALS as well.
Stylistically, this clash could be interesting.
Barnsley look to press high, Peterborough try and play football and if there’s an early goal, it should really open up.
These are two very young squads, and with the games coming thick and fast as we head into Autumn, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some rotation from both managers.
Half of Posh’s eight games in all competitions this term have seen at least three goals, all of which have come across their last six fixtures.
West Ham vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
WEST HAM look a touch big at a general price of 21/10 TO WIN at home to Fulham.
After a slow start to the campaign, the Hammers have clicked recently and the first round of the Carabao Cup looks like the turning point in hindsight.
Heading into the clash with Southampton, the Irons were winless in the Championship (W1 D1 L1 all comps). They then battered the Saints 4-1 on their own patch and haven’t lost since (W4 D1).
Including the clash at St Mary’s, they have scored 21 goals across those six games and conceded six.
On Tuesday, they face Premier League opposition but there doesn’t appear to be too big of a gulf between the pair.
Fulham picked up their first point of the league season at Anfield on Saturday.
The worrying thing for the Cottagers is they lost to Crystal Palace and Sunderland heading into that fixture, two sides who could potentially struggle this season.
And across their opening four games, they have conceded the fourth most xG, are in the bottom six for ‘big chances’ created and 14th for xG difference.
Ipswich vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
ARSENAL faced their toughest game of the season so far on Saturday.
They beat Sunderland 2-0 but it wasn’t as straight forward as the scoreline suggests. Only 0.08 xG separated the two sides, although the majority of that figure for the hosts came from the dubious penalty they had saved.
Including the win at the Stadium of Light, Arsenal have won all six of their fixtures this term, five of which coming to nil with the Gunners limiting their opponents to 0.50 xG in four of those.
So, instead of backing the visitors to win at a general 2/5, take the 29/20 about them TO WIN TO NIL.
Ipswich are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, conceding multiple goals in each of their last three. Liverpool beat them to nil and Manchester United put five past them.
Reading vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Reading host Premier League higher fliers Brentford in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
The visitors put six past Birmingham in the last round, Reading lost to Cambridge at the weekend but scored three or more in each of their previous three games, so goals should be expected at the Madejski.
At even money, CALLUM WILSON’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals.
He netted the opener at St Andrew’s and has a career goals per 90 average of 0.47.
Considering the Bees are generally 3/10 on to win here, I expected their lone striker's price to score to be a lot shorter, especially a player of Wilson’s calibre.
And with that in mind, his price TO SCORE 2+ GOALS and TO SCORE 3+ GOALS have to be value as well at 11/2 and 25/1 respectively.
Odds correct at 15:40 BST (14/09/26)
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