James' 25/26 record: Staked 21.50pts | Returned 27.19pts | P/L +5.69pts | ROI 26%
Football betting tips: Bundesliga, Ligue 1
18:30 – Bundesliga: Freiburg vs Wolfsburg
1pt Over 3.0 Asian Goals at 27/25 (bet365)
19:45 – Ligue 1: Lyon vs Rennes
1pt Over 3.0 Asian Goals at 21/20 (bet365)
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg
- Kick-off: Sunday, 18:30 GMT
- TV: Amazon PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
An entertaining game is likely when Freiburg host Wolfsburg at the Europa-Park Stadion on Sunday night.
This domestic fixture falls between the two legs of Freiburg’s Europa League semi-final against Braga, with the German side losing 2-1 in the first leg in Portugal on Thursday night. They are 5/4 outsiders to progress from that tie in Germany next Thursday.
With that second leg looming, Freiburg may take their eye off the Bundesliga ball, but they are still looking to secure a European place via the league. They are eighth in the table and outside the automatic European positions on goal difference only. We should expect a competitive performance from the home side, even if some of their key players may be saved for the return game against Braga.
A fully committed display from Wolfsburg is guaranteed. The visitors head into the weekend in one of the two automatic relegation spots with only three games to go. All is not lost, though: they are just one point behind St Pauli, who sit directly above them in the relegation playoff spot (16th).
Given that they need wins rather than draws to get out of trouble, Wolfsburg are likely to be bolder than a lower-ranking team ordinarily would be away from home. That in turn ought to grant scoring chances to Freiburg.
The stats also point towards a high-scoring encounter. 21 Freiburg’s 31 league matches have had three or more goals. The same applies to 20 of Wolfsburg’s 31 matches.
Looking purely at the relevant home and away fixtures, a similar high-scoring pattern emerges: 11 of Freiburg’s 15 home matches have had three or more goals, with the same applying to 10 of Wolfsburg’s 15 away matches. The first league meeting between the teams this season? It was a 4-3 win for Freiburg, five days before Christmas.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced accordingly at 4/6. Given this game has the potential to be one of the Bundesliga’s highest-scoring of the weekend, OVER 3.0 GOALS gets the vote at an odds-against price. This bet is a winner if there are four or more goals, we get stakes returned if there are exactly three goals and lose money if there are zero, one or two goals.
Lyon vs Rennes
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
A stack of attacking talent makes this the French top flight’s must-watch game.
In Lyon’s final third you’ll find Endrick, a reborn Corentin Tolisso, Portugal U21 winger Afonso Moreira, 11-goal top scorer Pavel Sulc, and Ukraine international Roman Yaremchuk, on the scoresheet twice in Lyon’s 3-2 win at home to Auxerre last weekend.
Rennes’ main man is Esteban Lepaul, whose run of nine goals from 11 starts since early February has propelled him to the top of the Ligue 1 scoring charts (18 goals). His supporting cast includes Switzerland striker Breel Embolo, deft playmaker Ludovic Blas, and Jordan winger Mousa Al-Tamari, who will be a player to watch at this summer’s World Cup.
Attacks are better than defences on both sides. Aside from the players' individual abilities, that is also down to the way the two managers encourage the sides to play: Lyon boss Paulo Fonseca asks his team to dominate possession and attack in great numbers, while Rennes counterpart Franck Haise demands his players try to win by big margins, rather than simply win.
There is a lot at stake too. Lyon are third in the Ligue 1 standings on 57pts, while Rennes are just one point and two places behind them. Finishing third means automatic entry into next season’s Champions League league phase. These two teams are likely to try to secure that prize through an adventurous approach.
The stats also point towards a high-scoring encounter. 59% of all Ligue 1 matches involving Lyon and Rennes this season have had three or more goals.
Looking purely at Lyon’s home matches and Rennes’ away matches, that figure rises to 63%. The first head-to-head of 2025-26 ended in a 3-1 Rennes win last September.
Over 2.5 Goals is again short at 4/6, but we'll take the same approach as in Germany and back OVER 3.0 GOALS in the hope we get four goals, with the comfort blanket of money back if we do get just the three.
Odds correct at 15:30 BST (01/05/26)
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