Arsenal head into the new season as the reigning Premier League champions, and as one of only 11 teams to go into the new campaign with the same manager at the helm as last season.
A whopping nine sides have changed their manager this summer, a league record, which not only adds an incredible amount of intrigue but also makes it extremely hard to predict what we are going to see from teams.
Three of those managerial changes are at 'big six' clubs, and one of them coming from a newly promoted side, which brings us nicely onto our 20-1...
20. Hull City
Hull City were the Championship's biggest overperformers last season according to the underlying data, finishing sixth in the standings and 23rd on expected points. On that metric they beat only Sheffield Wednesday.
That spells real trouble for the Tigers this season. Even if you meet in the middle and say that their style of play meant the data was skewed negatively against them, they are still a bottom half team at best, and now make the jump into the elite.
They have so much ground to make up, not just on the existing Premier League teams, but also on their fellow promoted sides, to even be competitive. And, before you compare them to Sunderland from last season, with the two clubs similar prices for relegation, it's worth mentioning that the Black Cats had a far better platform to build on when coming up from the Championship, ranking as the seventh best team in the second tier on the data.
Derby's record low points total could be in the news again...
19. Ipswich
The news of Kieran McKenna's departure from Ipswich was a shock one, and his replacement was equally as shocking, at least for a data nerd like me anyway. Gary O'Neil was appointed as the new boss of the Tractor Boys, and that immediately puts them on the back foot in my opinion.
O'Neil's spells in the Premier League have been very poor. After an August appointment in 22/23 he guided Bournemouth to a 15th placed finish yet the Cherries ranked second worst on the underlying data. It came as a shock at the time when the South Coast club sacked him and replaced him with Andoni Iraola - that worked out well didn't it!
He was parachuted into the Wolves job in the eleventh hour after Julen Lopetegui walked and oversaw another 15th placed finish, yet again his side ranked low on the data, with only the three dire teams who went down picking up fewer expected points (xP) than O'Neil's men. Wolves kept him on and started the 24/25 season winless in 10, second worst team on xP at that time, and eventually sacked him after 16 games (W2-D3-L11) with the side 19th.
It doesn't look like a wise move for a club looking to survive at the level. They have been busy in the window, but the pre-existing gap between them and the established Premier League clubs is huge, and while they have clawed into it a bit, it's likely that another relegation is on the cards.
18. Coventry
Undoubtedly Coventry were the best team in the Championship last season, and Frank Lampard deserves plenty of credit for that. But, like with O'Neil, I still have my reservations over whether he can prove himself at this level. We shall certainly see this season with a squad he has moulded at his disposal.
Of the three promoted sides I give the Sky Blues the best chance of surviving, but it'll be a monumental achievement in my book were they to do that, so good is the rest of the division.
Their transfer business looks ok but doesn't really scare you if you are an established club looking over your shoulder, and, to be brutally honest, last season's Championship was probably one of the worst quality-wise for a long time, with this Coventry side nowhere near the levels of the recent Leeds, Leicester or even Burnley teams who earned promotion.
17. Sunderland
Sunderland finish seventh last season and were effectively the 'Hull of the Premier League' from a data standpoint, being somewhat fortunate to finish so highly having ranked as the third worst team according to - everyone say it with me - THE DATA.
Ultimately, regression will occur, and it could be exacerbated by the fact the Black Cats have European football to enjoy, with that in itself - the juggling of midweek-weekend football at the highest level - likely to see a drop of a couple of positions.
Regis Le Bris has done no real business other than bringing in Thomas Meunier on a free transfer, with the squad virtually identical to last season barring Eliezer Mayenda leaving for Rennes. That could be a problem given what has been discussed above, and, ultimately, they look the most likely candidate to be dragged into the relegation mix.
The fact they haven't spent anything just yet though does mean they can dip into the January market should things start looking dicey in order to give themselves a boost.
16. Crystal Palace
Oliver Glasner out, Pierre Sage in. On paper it's like-for-like, with Glasner working wonders at Crystal Palace over the last few seasons, winning the FA Cup and the Conference League and Sage performing miracles at Lens by leading them to second in Ligue 1 and securing a first ever Coupe de France title.
But, it may take some time for Sage to adapt to the league, with Glasner getting three months at the back end of 23/24 to get his feet under the table and set up his side for solid campaigns.
They are a well run club so the fact they have lost centre-back Maxence Lacroix isn't a massive concern - they have waved goodbye to Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi over the last two seasons - but the fact they have European football once again should put a lid on their league finishing position.
The Eagles managed 15th last season and it was very apparent after Christmas that they put all their eggs in the European basket having had a taste of success and the fact that winning the Conference League secured Europa League qualification. I wouldn't be surprised if they did the same this season.
15. Fulham
Fulham are another established mid-table side with a new manager after Marco Silva left for Benfica. The Cottagers turned to, *checks notes*, Alvaro Arbeloa? The former Liverpool and Real Madrid defender? Yes, that's him.
Fresh from a stint as Real Madrid caretaker manager in which he oversaw a Copa del Rey exit at the hands of LaLiga2 side Albacete, a failing to finish in the top eight of the Champions League table, a dismantling at the hands of Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals and a dominant El Clasico loss to Barcelona.
Things clearly went well, so teams were queuing up to hire him. That queue consisted of Fulham. Anyway, whether he's a good manager or not remains to be seen but he does inherit a very good squad of players whose ceiling probably is top six and whose floor is 16th.
While there are question marks around Arbeloa, given the playing staff it's hard to confidently predict relegation for the Cottagers, as, after all, if things go badly at the start of the campaign the new Spanish gaffer will be given the boot and the incoming manager will likely steady the ship.
14. Newcastle
It appears as though the Newcastle project has been ripped up, with the higher-ups looking to start again after four successful years that delivered two Champions League campaigns and a long-awaited trophy.
Eddie Howe has left the club alongside three of their best players, with Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and captain Bruno Guimaraes departing for big money. It means this season will be transitional one for new manager Matthias Jaissle, who could yet lose more of his starters before the window closes.
Jaissle has been a serial winner so far in his managerial career, winning two Austrian Bundesliga titles and two AFC Champions League titles while at Red Bull Salzburg and Al-Ahli so could prove a very good appointment if given time and resources to re-tool this squad that shouldn't be anywhere near relegation.
13. Bournemouth
Bournemouth had an utterly remarkable campaign under Andoni Iraola last season, finishing sixth and coming up just four points shy of qualifying for the Champions League. Iraola has since moved on though which is a blow, but not something that will derail this excellent well run club.
The Cherries get picked off every summer it seems, with centre-back Marcos Senesi the latest of the playing staff to move onto a 'bigger club' after fellow defenders Milos Kerkez (Liverpool), Ilya Zabarnyi (PSG) and Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid) were sold last summer, with Antoine Semenyo leaving for Manchester City in January.
Iraola's departure feels like it could have a bigger impact than the players leaving, but Bournemouth were pro-active and got ahead of things, with Marco Rose appointed in April with the club knowing Iraola was to leave. That meant there was time for a business spiel 'handover', and also meant Rose got a good look at his squad and the maximum pre-season possible.
Rose is a good manager in his own right too, so I don't expect Bournemouth to plummet down the division, but I do expect some regression given the fact they have to balance European football this season - something they have never done before as a club.
Since 21/22 there have been six non-big-six clubs (not called Aston Villa) who have qualified for European football, and the on average, the season they play in Europe their league position drops by 5.67 positions. Over a larger sample of 10 seasons, 15 such teams fit the category and dropped by an average of 4.27 positions. It is a shock to the system that has to be factored into calculations.
12. Brighton
Like Bournemouth, Brighton could suffer a similar drop given they play in Europe, but unlike the Cherries, the Seagulls will be playing in the Conference League which is not only easier, but also features two fewer league phase games (though they do have a qualifier to get in there).
They will be affected too in my book, and the last time they qualified for Europe the following season they finished 11th as they couldn't manage the demands of midweek-weekend football.
Signings-wise, they look to have recruited well despite losing a couple of starters in Jan Paul van Hecke and Danny Welbeck, but one of the main reasons I think it could be a bottom half finish for Fabian Hurzeler's men is that they could and probably should throw all of their eggs in the Conference League basket.
English sides have won three of the last four editions of the tournament, with non-big-six sides West Ham and Crystal Palace taking advantage of the lesser opponents to not only bag a trophy, but also qualification for the following season's Europa League. Brighton should do the same, and if it means sacrificing league positions as the aforementioned teams did (14th and 15th respectively), then so be it.
11. Everton
Everton were a difficult team to place for me. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances this season, with the main reason being that they aren't in Europe like some of the other mid-pack teams, while they also have continuity in the dugout and playing staff unlike some of them.
They faded badly last season when looking like they could challenge for Europe, but ultimately the Toffees feel like a team with a high floor under David Moyes that should see them finish no lower than 13th. This season it feels as though their ceiling could be a bit higher than recent years which is why I was wrestling with putting them higher.
Ultimately they get the mid-table verdict. If Tyrique George can improve for more minutes, Thierno Barry be better after adapting to Premier League life and Brennan Johnson add a bit of dynamism then they could be an interesting runner for a European berth. They have to keep Iliman Ndiaye if that's to be the case, but with a solid foundation defensively it really would only take a small improvement in attack for them to challenge.
10. Leeds
Leeds were the most consistent side at the back end of last season, barely losing a game and surviving with ease. Daniel Farke's side ranked as the 11th best team in the league according to the data, which provides a really solid foundation to kick on and I think they can breach the top half at least this term.
One of the main reasons is the acquisition of a genuine top quality goalkeeper in James Trafford, who could move the needle for the Whites. Over the last two seasons in all competitions, he conceded 22.2 goals fewer than would be expected based on the chances he's faced (29 goals conceded, 47.2 xG on target faced). That's astounding.
Replacing Pascal Struijk with Bosnian Tarik Muharemovic looks smart business too, as does Harry Wilson on a free transfer. There is a lot to like about them this season in what should be a year they can take advantage of some of the non-big-six sides playing in Europe.
9. Brentford
Kieth Andrews' Brentford missed out on European football on the last matchday of the season last campaign, but it means they have a huge advantage of their competitors this time around.
The Bees are one of the most consistently well-run clubs in the league, and last season posted the eighth best underlying data, so given the fact they have strengthened again this summer and haven't had any of their best players pinched, we should expect them in the mix once again.
Mamadou Sangare looks a great addition in midfield from a very good Lens team, while Jaidon Anthony was arguably Burnley's best player as they got relegated last season, netting eight goals and providing two assists, so £15m for him looks good business to bolster their wide options.
I have them missing out on Europe by the smallest of margins once again though, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they managed it this term.
8. Aston Villa
I could be made to look very silly by Unai Emery and Aston Villa this season, sticking them in eighth. They have finished no lower than seventh under the Spaniard and have twice broken into the top four, but this season feels a little different.
They have lost a number of key starters in Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne and while their business to replace the first two looks pretty good, with Swiss World Cup star Johan Manzambi and Wolves' Joao Gomes added, I just wonder if this season it will catch up with them.
A bit like Sunderland last campaign, though not to the same extent, Villa overperformed their underlying numbers in a big way, finishing fourth despite ranking 13th on expected points, so some regression shouldn't come as a surprise, and it could be exacerbated by the fact they will be playing Champions League football.
It feels like a bit of a transitional season, and while I don't want to underestimate Emery, any higher than this I would class as a great season.
7. Liverpool
All the reasoning for why I expected Liverpool to drop off this season can be found in this article - 'Why I won't be betting on Liverpool this season'.
If you don't want to read it (you don't have to), here's a very brief summary:
Andoni Iraola, while a good manager, has never managed any team other than an underdog. He's never managed a team of this size, nor one that has played European football. His methods take a wile to translate with his sides very slow starters when he takes charge. Poor squad building and one that has been in decline.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish lower than this, but given I am a massive fan of Iraola and genuinely want him to succeed, I think he gets them ticking at the back end of the season - should he be given the time to do that.
6. Nottingham Forest
My punchiest prediction in this 20-1 is Nottingham Forest to go really well under new manager Oliver Glasner.
The Austrian is a coach I rate extremely highly and delivered three trophies in 12 months as Crystal Palace boss. He inherits a very good, deep squad that looks tailor made to play his system, and it has genuine quality in the XI.
Selling Elliot Anderson for so much money was great business with Forest likely to manage just fine without him. Keeping hold of Morgan Gibbs-White is imperative after his finish to the season, while he could be even better under Glasner.
The Tricky Trees finished seventh just two years ago, being in the Champions League mix for most of the season with a lesser squad and a manager not at Glasner's level, and with no European football they have the potential to be really dangerous this term.
Let's just hope Mr. Marinakis doesn't get in his team's own way.
5. Tottenham
I think Tottenham have finally got the right man to steady the ship and get them back on track. Having said that, Ange Postecoglou will be absolutely fuming watching Spurs splash the cash this summer after he was given literally nothing following a fifth-placed finish in his first season, and then getting sacked after winning the Europa League in his second.
The signings made immediately lift Spurs' XI and Roberto De Zerbi should play a style of football that not only wins matches but also keeps the fans onside.
And, let's face it, the only way is up for Tottenham - right? 17th in back-to-back seasons was a disaster for Spurs and clearly last season's relegation close call sparked the higher-ups into action to make sure that it's not third time unlucky.
I trust this manager to get things right, especially in a season with no European football, while the foundations of their team are very good. If they had a bit more in forward areas I may have even put them above Manchester United, but at the time of writing I have them just outside the top four.
4. Manchester United
Manchester United's biggest challenge this season will be coping with the increased number of games they will play. Last season, the Red Devils played the fewest number of games possible for a Premier League side - 38 in the league, one in the FA Cup and one in the Carabao Cup.
This season they will have at least eight more matches, more than likely early teens, and that extra workload will take it's toll and put a ceiling on what can be achieved in the league table.
Michael Carrick is still unproven at this level, though his side were impressive after he took over, and is inexperienced at managing the midweek-weekend grind, but he does at least have a deep squad to call upon, and that should be enough to fire them into the top four and secure Champions League football once again.
The starting XI on paper does look good, but it will be a case of sustaining their levels, especially post Champions League if they are to challenge for the title. I suspect this is another season of progression in the sense of balancing continental and league football successfully.
3. Chelsea
Chelsea's hire of Xabi Alonso is the best managerial move of the summer in my opinion in terms of how much it improves a team. I mean, Chelsea had Liam Rosenior in charge at the back end of last season, and Alonso is in a different stratosphere when it comes to managerial level.
He will immediately make the Blues more competitive, not that they were completely terrible last season. They finished 10th but ranked fifth on the major data metrics meaning the Spanish coach has a decent base to work from, and BlueCo seem to have gotten their act together in the transfer market by actually buying players for a manager's system rather than accumulating an enormous amount of players in the hope they can flip them for a profit.
Their starting XI is right up there with the best in the league, on paper anyway, with the added experience of top professionals Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck only likely to help with the culture and the nurturing of a very young squad. Morgan Rogers adds real x-factor, while Maxence Lacroix is tailor made to play in the middle of Alonso's back three having excelled in that position at Palace.
Throw in a stellar midfield pair, a fantastic forward duo of Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro who will have huge chips on their shoulders having been snubbed for the World Cup, and the fact the Blues have no European football to juggle, and we should expect a proper bounce back campaign.
2. Manchester City
While it could be argued that Manchester City's appointment of Enzo Maresca - a man who knows the club intimately and who has delivered success in both managerial stops to date at Leicester (Championship title) and Chelsea (Conference League and Club World Cup) - is a shrewd one, the lack of Pep Guardiola means we have to mark the Cityzens down in calculations until proven otherwise.
I mean, they haven't been hitting their top levels for the last few years under the best manager of all time, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them drop off a bit more given the managerial change. They mustered just 71 points in 24/25 and only 78 last season, some come down from the 89.5 points they averaged in the four seasons prior.
So, Maresca has a challenge to hang onto Arsenal's coattails in my opinion, which isn't ideal during such a big transition, but the squad at his disposal should make them the best of the rest. They have lost some experienced heads in the likes of John Stones, Bernardo Silva and Nathan Ake, but the squad is more than capable of being the main contenders for yet another title.
1. Arsenal
Arsenal were undoubtedly the best team in the league last season and look to only have strengthened this season by bringing in Bruno Guimaraes and Christos Tzolis, the former strengthening the XI and the latter an upgrade on Leandro Trossard.
If anything, given the managerial upheaval of the chasing pack, it feels as though Arsenal have widened the gap between themselves and the rest of the division over the summer, and as I kept banging on about last season, Mikel Arteta's side have the highest floor of any team in the league.
This essentially means that their average performance is good enough to beat two thirds of the division, and while they may not have the highest ceiling of top flight sides - that award probably goes to Manchester City - consistency ultimately wins titles and it'll be hard for City to hit that ceiling week in and week out.
Final point on the reigning champions, their squad is simply stacked. They have two excellent players for every position meaning they can make a proper go at a quadruple once again. Let's not forget that last season they won the league, finished runners-up in the Carabao Cup and Champions League and reached the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.
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