With the second round of Euro 2020 group games completed, Liam Kelly takes a look at Infogol's Expected Goals (xG) data to round up the action.
An entertaining second round of fixtures has come to an end, but what do the numbers say about it? What were the data-driven storylines?
Infogol’s xG model generates a ‘Fairness Rating’ for each match, which we will be using as a guide in this series.
The fairness rating is calculated by taking the quality of chances created and conceded by each team in a match and simulating every possibility to see how likely each result was.
Let's see what the xG numbers and fairness ratings tell us...
Creative, comfortable victors
Combining a good amount of chances created with a fairly sturdy defensive performance is obviously a potent mix at any level of football, and is often rewarded with a very positive outcome.
As a result, it's no surprise to see the likes of the Netherlands, Italy and Wales register a high fairness rating in victory following outstanding displays in round two, especially in attack. They recorded 3.53, 2.50 and 3.83 expected goals for (xGF) respectively, dispatching of Austria, Switzerland and Turkey with real authority.
Germany should also be included in that conversation after their convincing 4-2 win over Portugal on Saturday evening, giving themselves life in the group of death.
The sole factor in denying Joachim Low's side a worthy margin in the xG battle to match the scoreline is the reality that own goals cannot be accurately added to their xG total of 2.32.
Ukraine's fairly low fairness rating of 77.5 in a 2-1 win over North Macedonia is purely scoreline based. They fashioned more than enough scoring chances to win that match by a bigger margin.
Familiar pain for Spain and the Danes
Denmark and Spain posted two of the lower fairness ratings of the round, suffering unsatisfactory results in an eerily similar style to their opening fixtures of the tournament.
After losing 1-0 to Finland despite allowing just one shot on goal, Denmark entered round two in need of a result. Unfortunately for the Danes, Belgium's edge in quality was on full display despite an accomplished performance from the 'hosts' in Copenhagen.
Kasper Hjulmand's side failed to add to their deserved lead and were subsequently punished by an extremely clinical Belgian attack, who scored two beautifully crafted goals from five shots equating to 0.82 xG. Denmark would be very unlucky to miss out on qualification from Group B, but if they continue to perform in the same manner, a win can be expected against Russia.
Spain once again created more than enough chances to claim three points, this time against Poland, generating 3.18 xG in a 1-1 draw at Seville's La Cartuja Stadium. Their wasteful nature may well cost them a place in the knockout stages, likely needing a win against Slovakia in the final group game on Wednesday.
Despite completely dominating both their matches, defence is a serious issue for Luis Enrique, too. Spain are limiting their opponents to few shots, but an average of 0.28 expected goals against (xGA) per shot is an alarming figure.
France are another team who will be rueing missed scoring opportunities, having to settle for a disappointing 1-1 draw against Hungary in Budapest. Didier Deschamps' men squandered chances to silence a 60,000 strong crowd prior to Hungary's opener, and applied late pressure after Antoine Griezmann's equaliser.
The forgettable match-ups
Sweden took their time to kick into gear but were deserving of a 1-0 victory over Slovakia, while Russia edged out Finland in a largely unremarkable game.
As for England-Scotland, the most anticipated sporting event of 2021 didn't live up to the billing.
England missed solid chances to take an early lead, explaining their overall lead in the xG battle (ENG 1.67 - 0.73 SCO), but were well and truly second-best for the majority of the game. Gareth Southgate's side created chances equating to just 0.31 xG in the second half, a damning indictment on one of the tournament favourites.
Scotland must be credited with a stifling display, though. It is a rare occurrence, but the underlying numbers do not do Steve Clarke's justice here.
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