Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt Ola Aina to be carded at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2
1pt Nikola Milenkovic to be carded at 17/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2
1pt Emi Martinez to be carded at 17/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/1
0.5pt Aston Villa to win and Emi Martinez to be carded at 22/1 (bet365) - min price 16/1
We will have an English team in the Europa League final once again this season and whoever makes the showpiece will be heavy favourites to lift the trophy against either Braga or Freiburg.
It's an incredible opportunity for both Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa to win European silverware and qualify for the Champions League.
Aston Villa have the latter in their hands after another stellar league campaign, and there will be a number of teams in the top flight cheering the Villans on in this competition given the permutations.
If Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth in the Premier League, then sixth-place in the Prem will get Champions League qualification. The important factor here is that Villa must finish exactly fifth, with that spot being the extra UCL qualification slot secured via coefficient rankings, and only that spot can be passed down to sixth. If Villa finish third or fourth and win the UEL then nothing changes.
As for Forest, they are still in a relegation scrap despite being in this European semi-final, so can't take their eye off the ball, though Vitor Pereira has his side purring at just the right time.
They are unbeaten in eight games across all competitions, winning four of their last six, while their last two league games have been demolition jobs of Burnley (4-1) and Sunderland (5-0). Despite defeat at Fulham last time out, Villa are also in great form, winning six of their last nine in all comps, losing just two.
These two sides did play earlier this month at the City Ground in a game that ended all square, and a similarly nip-and-tuck game wouldn't be a huge surprise, and as such we'll be swerving the traditional markets and heading for cards.
The referee for this first leg Joao Pinheiro, who looks a cracking appointment for card backers. He's averaged 4.8 cards per game in European competition this season, with his last outing a nine yellow, one red display in the second leg of the Strasbourg's Conference League win over Mainz.
An angle I've been backing relentlessly in my weekend Premier League column for most of the season is to back right-backs and right-centre-backs who are opposing Aston Villa to be carded, and we'll be following that trend again here.
That's because at least one of the RB or RCB has been booked in 10 of Villa's last 11 games against Premier League opponents, and while this game is a European one, it's against a Premier League opponent so it does fit into that thread.
So, we're taking OLA AINA and NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO BE CARDED in this first leg.
Aina should play right back here and has been carded just three times this season so doesn't look an obvious candidate for a card here but neither did Fulham right back Timothy Castagne last weekend who had also been booked three times before picking one up against Villa.
Milenkovic has six cards to his name this term and has committed three fouls across two meetings between these sides already.
The stakes at play here are huge and in the Villa dugout there is a man who relishes winning this competition, with a tactical nous unmatched in Europe's second-tier copmpetition. It's highly likely he puts on a tactical masterclass, but as stated already I'm happy to swerve the main markets.
But.
At the prices available I cannot resist a bet on EMI MARTINEZ TO BE CARDED in the hope that Unai Emery does get his side in position to win this game. We are getting 17/2 for serial offender Martinez getting booked here, while we'll also back a VILLA WIN AND MARTINEZ CARD at 22/1.
We are taking them as two separate bets as while it the most likely way this bet wins is with some time-wasting shenanigans from the Argentine, he is prone to getting booked for a variety of other things too.
Martinez has been booked 22 times across all competitions in the last four seasons, and was recently booked for time-wasting in Villa's 1-0 first leg win at Lille in the last 16 of the Europa League, and in Villa's 1-0 win over Brighton, though the latter was for scrapping.
His antics are common knowledge, and the referee here has an incredible track record of booking goalkeepers. He's carded eight GK's in his last 18 matches, with seven coming for time-wasting in close games - the majority big games.
Last time out he booked Benfica's keeper in a 2-1 win at Sporting Lisbon for time-wasting, a couple of games before that he booked Sweden's keeper for the same thing in their World Cup qualifying play-off against Ukraine.
A few games before that it was Porto's keeper who was booked for time-wasting when his side were 2-1 up at Benfica only to draw 2-2. Oh, and it was Galatasaray's keeper who was booked as they clung onto a lead in the second leg of their Champions League tie with Juventus.
Those four occasions all came in Pinheiro's last six outings, and all have a lot in common - huge matches with a lot on the line which were all closely fought.
This game has the capability to hit the same type of game, with plenty on the line and likely very little between the sides - ie one team won't runaway 3-0 or 4-1 winners or anything, so we'll swing on Emi to do his usual housery in a Villa win.
Odds correct at 17:00 BST (28/04/26)
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